What Max Fried's likely rejection of the qualifying offer does and doesn't mean

Max Fried was one of 13 Major Leaguers who received a $21.05 million qualifying offer. It's rare players accept the one-year deal (although Nick Martinez of the Reds did so yesterday), and it's almost a forgone conclusion Fried will decline the QO in hopes of landing a multi-year contract in free agency.

Here, I'll quickly go over what Fried's impending probable rejection of the QO means, and doesn't mean, for Atlanta this offseason.

Fried has until 4 p.m. EST today to make his decision

Qualifying offer deadline day is today, so that means we are expecting the official rejection announcement any minute from Braves. Once that happens Max Fried's agent will begin to seriously field calls from all other 29 MLB teams to gauge where his demands start.

The biggest fact you need to know about a qualifying offer being rejected is the draft compensation linked with it. Each team that loses a free agent who received a QO gets back a draft pick as compensation for losing said player. The level of that draft pick is determined by the team's payroll and standing in the Competitive Balance Tax.

In 2024 the Braves did indeed exceed the CBT threshold, so that means the team would receive a draft pick after the fourth round if Fried signs elsewhere. In this scenario it would also mean Fried's new team would forfeit a draft pick depending on their tax bracket and how many free agents with QO's they sign.

Next, we get to what this wouldn't mean for Atlanta's offseason. The first is a simple reminder, but needed one; should Fried decline the QO, it doesn't shut the door on him returning to the Braves on a multi-year contract.

The Braves have created some payroll wiggle room already this offseason, and we know from Anthopoulos' words that payroll will be going up in 2025. While it remains unlikely, Fried returning wouldn't become impossible with the QO rejection.

Fried's QO rejection also won't guarantee teams will be lining up to sign the 30 year-old lefty. All you have to do is look at last season as prime examples for that. Blake Snell was coming off a 2023 Cy Young award, and yet he netted just a two-year (with an opt out) $62 million deal last winter.

Should the market on Fried drag out, and the Braves still have a need for a top of the rotation arm, then the path back to Atlanta becomes more viable.

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