The Atlanta Braves' offseason started earlier than anyone would have preferred, but that also creates plenty of topics to discuss. Because of the offense's shortcomings in the postseason, plenty of content will be published regarding how to fix Atlanta's offense. However, in this article, we are going to focus on the starting rotation.
Atlanta's 2026 rotation was truly a hodgepodge of arms, with numerous spring training injuries altering Alex Anthopoulos' plans for that unit. In the end, Atlanta's starting pitching found a way to pitch effectively, finishing sixth in ERA. Still, the need for starting pitching is quite evident with this ball club. Ray Kerr became an Atlanta legend overnight, but going into October with two viable starters doesn't seem like a strategy worth repeating in 2027.
Predicting the Braves' rotation for the start of the 2027 season
Chris Sale
Atlanta's ace going into next year will once again be the veteran southpaw Chris Sale. The anchor of the rotation since he arrived, Sale is set for another top-three finish in NL Cy Young voting this year. It's easy to forget now, but before this season started, the Braves signed Sale to an extension to keep him in Atlanta beyond 2026. Next season, Sale will make $27 million and look to continue his dominance in a Braves uniform.
However, we have to acknowledge that in 2027, Sale will turn 38 years old just after Opening Day. Sale has reached a point in his career where his performance could decline at any moment. Ironically, Sale defied the odds this season when he produced the highest average fastball velocity of his incredible career. Next season, we shall see if Sale can continue to defeat father time.
Chris Sale, Wipeout 80mph Slider. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/wwRLtof21o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2026
Tyler Mahle
Alex Anthopoulos' biggest trade deadline win was the acquisition of Tyler Mahle. Perhaps the best deadline move made in baseball, Mahle was brilliant with Atlanta in the second half. After working with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and adjusting his pitch mix, Mahle produced a 1.99 ERA, 3.32 FIP, and 1.8 bWAR in nine starts with the Braves.
Additionally, Mahle was nails in the playoffs, pitching two incredible games during Atlanta's postseason run. After the season ended, Mahle spoke openly about his desire to continue pitching in Atlanta. Alex Anthopoulos needs to match Mahle's desire and find a way to keep him in Atlanta going forward. Mahle undoubtedly drove his market up with his second half performance, but it still should not reach a place where Anthopoulos feels uncomfortable negotiating.
Sonny Gray
At this point, it feels like many of us are trying to will Sonny Gray to Atlanta. The veteran right-hander is a long rumored fit for the Braves, with every offseason and trade deadline sparking thoughts of Sonny days at Truist Park. Regardless, Gray truly feels like the perfect arm to add to Atlanta's rotation this winter.
The soon-to-be 37-year-old enjoyed an excellent season with the Red Sox in 2026. Gray finished the year with a 2.72 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 4.3 bWAR. Gray has finished with a FIP in the 3.00s in every season (except 2023 when he had a 2.83 FIP) since 2019. He is also averaging over 30 starts per season over the last four years. Hopefully, Gray has reached an age where a one or two-year deal is finally enough to bring his durable and talented arm to Atlanta.
Didier Fuentes
One of the youngest players in MLB across the 2026 season, Didier Fuentes burst onto the scene with an impressive rookie campaign. Atlanta developed the hard-throwing righty as a starter throughout the minors, but his path to Atlanta this season was through the bullpen. Fuentes' ceiling is so high, that it is hard to limit him to high-leverage bullpen arm going forward.
It's probably not fair to expect the 21-year-old to flirt with 190 innings next season, but Fuentes has proven he deserves another chance to stick in the rotation. Thanks to the development of his secondary offerings, Fuentes has the arsenal to navigate a big league lineup multiple times through. In 2027, it's time to take the handcuffs off and see how far Fuentes can go.
AJ Smith-Shawver
Selecting an arm from the litany of internal options Atlanta has is a challenge. On one hand, many of these arms have the upside you are looking for to round out a dominant rotation. On the other hand, each pitcher is either returning from injury or has yet to establish themselves at the Major League level. That is why penciling in AJ Smith-Shawver feels rather risky.
Clearly, the results in 2026 were not those of a pitcher you get excited about moving forward. However, it is important to remember that Smith-Shawver is just 16 months removed from major elbow surgery. Back in 2024, AJSS was ascending toward an arm that flashed all the tools necessary to get big league hitters out consistently. With the uncertain timetables for Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider, it feels like one of the young arms will begin the year in the rotation.
Smith-Shawver, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, and Hurston Waldrep will all get an extensive look in spring training to see who looks best. It's also not out of the question for Anthopoulos to bring in another Martin Perez-type starter to compete with the youngsters. As of now, Smith-Shawver seems like the favorite to emerge from this group, but that can certainly change as the winter rolls on.
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