Understanding Marcell Ozuna's power drop-off comes down to one particular pitch

Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants | Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

Until Ronald Acuna Jr. returned to the Atlanta Braves lineup playing like his hair was on fire, Marcell Ozuna was often regarded as the most consistent hitter in Atlanta's lineup. Ozuna is playing on the final year of his contract, and is looking to cash-in one last time next offseason. However, a recent power outage may cause teams to be hesitant in signing Ozuna this coming winter.

The Big Bear has still had a solid season overall, mostly because he tapped into his plate discipline and ranks in the 99th percentile in walk rate. However, Ozuna is on pace for just 23 homers this season after combining for 79 home runs from 2023-2024. It's likely that the ongoing hip injury isn't doing him any favors, but his poor results against breaking pitches this season may be the real reason for Ozuna's power slump.

Ozuna is one of many Braves really struggling against breaking pitches this season

Even in his age 34 season, Marcell Ozuna has had no trouble punishing high velocity. Ozuna is absolutely mashing fastballs this season to the tune of a .444 wOBA. However, the inverse of that is highlighted by his struggles against breaking balls this season. Entering June 23rd, Ozuna had a dismal .118 batting average and .247 slugging percentage against breaking balls this season.

This is a big dip from his 2023 production against secondary pitches where he slugged .530 and hit 16 of his 39 homers on breaking balls. Ozuna has actually cut his whiff rate on breaking balls slightly down compared to last season, but his average exit velocity has dropped about 2.4 mph. This could easily be a case of Ozuna cheating on fastballs a bit more because of the hip issue he's dealing with.

Again, Ozuna has been far from the most concerning hitter in Atlanta's lineup in 2025. However, with each passing day it becomes more and more clear that the Braves need their top four hitters to not only get on base, but hit for power.

Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson have delivered in both the on-base and power department in the month of June. However, counted on sluggers Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna have both been a lot more inconsistent. Both Riley and Ozuna have put together "fine" seasons to this point, but becoming more productive against breaking balls once again would go a long way for both sluggers looking closer to the best versions of themselves in the middle of Atlanta's lineup.

More Braves News from House That Hank Built