At this point, we are running out of ways to describe how bad Austin Riley has been for the Atlanta Braves this season. On both sides of the ball, Riley looks completely lost, and it has cost the Braves dearly, especially over the last few weeks when the rest of the offense struggled. Much has been made about the potential causes of Riley's decline, including his approach as well as his injury issues in recent years. However, there is one catch-all metric that pretty much sums it up well.
No, we are not talking about WAR because, well, that would be boring and we already know that he has been bad. However, one of the better ways to measure a hitter's overall offensive value is Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). The best way to think about it is as a way to evaluate hitters that takes into account the quality/types of ways a guy gets on base (singles, doubles, walks, HBPs, etc.), adjusts for each one, and then spits out a number. There is also a version that generates an expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) based on quality of contact in addition to the actual results.
While we are not getting too in the weeds with Riley's numbers, it is his xwOBA that speaks volumes to where he is as a hitter right now, and that is a big problem.
Austin Riley's xwOBA is nightmare fuel right now, but knowing that doesn't help the Braves fix him
In general, the league-average xwOBA is somewhere in the .310-.315 range. With a player like Riley used to be, the number was typically higher because he consistently made hard contact even during the tough times, which xwOBA likes a lot. Even last year when Riley struggled before getting hurt, his xwOBA was .330, and he was consistently .360+ in the seasons before that.
2026 has been a very different story. Through 332 plate appearances this season, Riley has only managed a .294 xwOBA as his quality of contact and approach have completely cratered this season. To understand how rough that is, only 51 hitters in all of baseball have been worse, and those around Riley in the rankings are...not hitters you want to be ranked near. Arguably more depressing is that one of those hitters who has been worse than him is the Braves' own Mike Yastrzemski, but that is a topic for another day.
Unfortunately, Riley's xwOBA is also a sign that he isn't particularly close to figuring things out. We have all seen guys go through spells where one type of pitch gives them fits, and even when they make loud contact, it finds gloves. That isn't what this is. As a hitter, Riley is just bad right now, and if the expected stats are right, he is going to stay that way unless something drastic changes.
Add us as a preferred source on Google