Coming into the offseason, it was already assumed that Max Fried would not be re-signing with the Braves. After nearly four seasons of being one of the team's best pitchers, Fried had simply priced himself out of Atlanta's budget.
However, even knowing that signing the lefty would come at a hefty cost, no one could have expected how much he would get. A day after losing out on superstar Juan Soto, the Yankees were determined to not be outbid and handed the 30-year-old an eight-year deal worth $218 million.
The Yankees gave Max Fried a deal he couldn't refuse and the Braves shouldn't have even considered
Coming into the offseason, expected predicted that Fried would get five to six years worth between $25-$28 million per season. This put the highest projected deal at $168 million total.
The Yankees, of course, blew past this projection, giving Fried eight years, though the average annual value of $27.25 million per season fell in line with projections.
Since becoming a mainstay in the Braves rotation in 2019, the southpaw has put up 22.2 bWAR and 18.4 fWAR, putting him in the top-15 in both categories. Because of this sustained success, it feels disingenuous to call this a huge overpay by New York.
However, consider Aaron Nola, who has been worth nearly 5 fWAR more than Fried since 2019. Last offseason, the durable righty stayed put in Philadelphia, signing a seven-year deal worth $172 million. Nola was six months younger than Fried at the time, had nearly no injury history, but settled for nearly $2 million less per season and got one fewer season.
Or consider Blake Snell, another lefty, who is only a year older than Fried. While Snell hasn't had the same consistant success Fried has had, he still has put up 16.2 fWAR since 2019. Unlike Fried, Snell has won a Cy Young Award (in fact, he's won two). While injuries caused Snell to miss time, he still got $182 million over five years. While he beat Fried in average annual value, Fried still will get $36 million more over the duration of his contract.
Of course, Max Fried hasn't necessarily been the golden standard for health, either. In 2024, Fried missed two weeks with forearm neuritis. The season before, he only pitched 77.2 innings thanks to a hamstring injury and then a forearm injury.
Then of course, there are the countless other minor injuries that spurred during his time in the bigs.
In this sense, looking at Carlos Rodon, his new teammate who missed the majority of several seasons with injuries while with the White Sox, also makes sense. Rodon was coming off two straight stellar full seasons with Chicago and San Francisco.
The Yankees, impressed by his performance, gave him a six-year, $162 million deal. While this is lower in years and a smidge less in annual salary, Rodon hit free agency with much less consistent success to back it up.
But, since signing with the Yankees, he struggled with injuries and command, which has already turned New York against him. He's only been worth 1.6 fWAR in his two seasons, and is still under contract for four more seasons.
Over the next eight seasons, ZiPS isn't a fan of Fried's. The projection model only expects the former Braves ace to amass 13.0 WAR, which would only be worth $120 million. If this projection comes out to be true, it would mean that the Bronx Bombers overpaid by nearly $100 million.
Dan Szymborski admits he's more optimistic on Fried's outlook, but the lefty also saw an increase in his walk-rate and had the worst season by ERA and FIP since he was a rookie.
For the Braves, offering a contract even close to what the Yankees paid wasn't worth the risks that locking up Fried for that long would have brought along. This wasn't a matter of Atlanta penny pinching, this was a situation where New York needed to pivot and priced out every other team fighting for Max Fried by a lot.