The Atlanta Braves have already had a fairly successful offseason, re-signing closer Raisel Iglesias to a one-year deal, and inking All-Star reliever Robert Suarez and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to multi-year deals. However, the teams still have not checked off starting pitching from their wish list.
Although starting pitcher Merrill Kelly was never explicitly linked to the Braves, his reliability as a middle-of-the-rotation arm was no doubt along the lines of what Atlanta was searching for. However, after the DBacks reunited with Kelly, the true price of starting pitching started to reveal itself.
Merrill Kelly's new deal might have set the price tag for starters into uncomfortable territory for the Braves
It would be selling Kelly slightly short if he was lumped in with starters like his new teammate and former Brave Michael Soroka, who just signed for $7.5 million. Kelly was always going to get more than your average back-of-the-rotation starter.
Since he signed with the Diamondbacks in 2019 after a four-year stint in the KBO, Kelly has been one of the most reliable arms in baseball, with the 15th-most innings pitched. His starts have not resulted in ace level success, as he sits 36th in fWAR and has never appeared in an All-Star Game or received Cy Young votes, but the righty has never had a season with an ERA worse than 4.44 and has started at least 27 games in five of his six full seasons.
Last season, Kelly had a 3.52 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 184 innings between Arizona and Texas. MLB Trade Rumors predicted he'd get a two-year deal worth $36 million. While the predictions were spot on with the years, Kelly was able to sign for $40 million, $4 million more than projected.
Although Kelly didn't grossly out-earn his projected contract, his deal, alongside Dylan Cease's deal with Toronto, shows a growing trend that starting pitching is going to cost more than initially expected.
If the Braves are serious about adding a legitimate starting pitching through free agency, it will not be cheap. Even if the club wants to add a veteran like Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito, solid but not outstanding starters, Atlanta better be willing to make that pitcher their third-highest paid player on the team.
Otherwise, if the Braves do add another starter, they'll be surrendering prospects or skimming from the bargain bin.