It did not take long at all for Atlanta Braves fans to turn on Jurickson Profar and the Braves' decision to sign him to a three-year deal. Not because he got off to a slow start, although Profar also didn't impress much early, but instead because he got suspended for PEDs not long after the 2025 season started, and he ended up missing half of the Braves' regular season schedule.
Upon returning, Profar put together a relatively decent season overall at first glance. His .245/.353/.434 line isn't overwhelming, but a pretty solid effort for a guy that had been in timeout for 80 games, and the walk rate was encouraging.
However, a closer look at what Profar was actually doing (and not doing) should have both the team and fans concerned that his contract could age like spoiled milk.
Jurickson Profar's contact metrics from 2025 should be considered a warning of possible decline to come
Again, Profar posting a .787 OPS is not "bad" per se. In fact, it is pretty reasonable, especially when you factor in his ability to draw free passes. However, it appears that there were some smoke and mirrors involved in how Profar ended up with those numbers. More importantly, they also showed that he could be regressing to his pre-2024 self.
In 2024, Profar ranked in the top 30% in all of baseball in xWOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard hit % in addition to really improving his plate discipline. Upon his return from his PED suspension in 2025, he kept the plate discipline, but all of those contact metrics cratered to around the bottom third among the rest of MLB.
So what? Profar was just rusty, and he will be fine, right? Well, maybe. However, it is worth noting that concerns already existed when Profar hit free agency that his 2024 season could be an outlier. Before that career year, Profar was pretty consistently a .700-.750ish OPS guy with, you guessed it, well below average contact metrics.
For the most pessimistic out there, they will argue that Profar only hit well in 2024 because of PEDs, and the Braves are stuck with a guy who won't be worth the $15 million a year he is getting. For others, Profar made a mistake and still showed enough last season to hope for a bounce-back. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. His doubters are probably overstating how much Profar's production is going to crater, but the Braves also probably shouldn't be banking on another 2024 out of him.