The Braves’ path past the mighty Dodgers depends on this star’s return to form

The Death Star has a weakness, and his name is Austin Riley.
Atlanta Braves v Athletics
Atlanta Braves v Athletics | Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

The republic of Major League Baseball is in severe danger. Atlanta Braves fans were among 28 other fanbases who loathed the Los Angeles Dodgers’ signing of Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal. Baseball’s biggest villain and back-to-back champions keep giving opposing fans more ammunition to fuel their hate.

The sad part is that the Braves have actually spent a lot of money this winter, but the Dodgers latest move is a gut punch to Atlanta's offseason momentum. As many of us try to wrap our heads around yet another Dodgers mega-deal, the focus shifts to how any team can beat the mighty Dodgers in 2026. The Atlanta Braves are one of a handful of teams who seemingly have a fighting chance, and one player returning to form may be their best hope of taking down the Dodgers' Death Star.

Braves need the feared slugger version of Austin Riley back now more than ever

Every Braves fan remembers Eddie Rosario going nuclear en route to his 2021 NLCS MVP performance against the Dodgers. However, what many fans forget are the clutch hits Austin Riley delivered early in that series to propel Atlanta to a couple of victories. From 2021 to 2023, Riley was a constant clutch force in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, and it earned him the largest contract in franchise history. As we know, the past two seasons have been much tougher for Atlanta’s third baseman.

Unfortunate injury luck has played a role in Riley’s subpar 2024–25 seasons, and the hope is that he’s prepared to put together a much more invigorating 2026 campaign. Riley’s OPS dipped to .737 in just over 100 games last season, and his strikeout rate was the highest it had been since his rookie year. If the Braves want to compete with the best teams in the league, they simply need more from Austin Riley.

Current Steamer projections have Riley posting a .260/.323/.462 slash line, a 116 wRC+, and a 3.0 fWAR campaign in 2026. In all honesty, Braves fans would likely take that projection and run after the last two seasons, but if Atlanta wants to field a top offense once again, it will likely need more from Riley.

In Atlanta’s offense, Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson can lead the charge, and the lineup features other established hitters capable of stepping up. However, Austin Riley has one of the highest offensive ceilings on the roster, and his power can carry this team a long way. Riley posted an OPS comfortably above .850 in each season from 2021 to 2023; if the Braves want to reach the Dodgers’ 2026 heights, they need Riley to deliver another .800 OPS campaign.

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