MLB free agency is officially open, and the player everyone is watching is two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The 29-year-old southpaw is the biggest fish on the market this offseason, and with a ticking clock on the current CBA deal, everyone is monitoring Skubal rumors. While the Atlanta Braves are not favorites to sign the ace, that does not mean his market doesn't matter at all to them.
Skubal is projected to land a contract north of $350 million according to several notable publications, and when you reach contracts of that level, it really narrows down Skubal's potential landing spots. Obviously, big spenders like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cubs are presumed to be the favorites in signing Skubal. Naturally, Braves fans wince at the thought of Skubal in a Mets uniform, but it actually might be better than the alternative.
On ESPN's Baseball Tonight podcast, Jorge Castillo called the #Mets the favorite to land Tarik Skubal.
— Matthew Crory (@matthewcrory) November 3, 2026
"I think they're the favorites," Castillo said, naming the #Dodgers, #Cubs and Mets as the teams with "the need and frankly the money."
Alden Gonzalez: "The Mets really,… pic.twitter.com/6vJqZophTC
Why the Mets signing Tarik Skubal wouldnt' be the worst outcome for the Braves
This isn't an article hoping an ace with a sub-2.50 ERA and FIP over the last three seasons will sign with a division rival; it's an observation that Skubal does not fix all of the Mets' problems. New York finished in the basement of the NL East last season, and one incredible starting pitcher will not be enough to close a 20 game gap between the Mets and Braves.
The Mets finished 21st in team wRC+ in 2026, so it's fair to say their lineup is in need of attention more so than their rotation. If Steve Cohen wants to back up the Brinks truck for Skubal before addressing the lineup, Braves fans won't lose as much sleep as they did when New York splurged on Juan Soto.
Instead, Atlanta would be in more trouble if Skubal went back to the already loaded Dodgers. The mighty Dodgers eliminated the Braves in this year's postseason, and keeping a pitcher of Skubal's caliber out of LA would make a lot of fanbases across baseball happy.
Of course, Atlanta has their own needs to worry about this offseason, but it would be naive to expect the Mets and Phillies to remain quiet throughout the winter. Still, what's more important is HOW the Mets and Phillies spend money this winter, rather than how much. No one on the Braves' offense wants Skubal in the NL East for the long term, but their chances of advancing in October are probably better suited with Skubal on the Mets rather than the All-Star team the Dodgers will deploy on a yearly basis.
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