Spencer Strider is known to be his own biggest critic, and he's been open about the patience he's needed to keep while working his way back from injury. Unfortunately, with the Atlanta Braves' horrid start to the season waiting for Strider to shake off the expected rust was harder to swallow as a result.
Thankfully, Strider seems to have turned a corner over his past five starts, going at least five innings in each and allowing no more than three earned runs in any of them. His season numbers are starting to look more in line with what we expect from Strider as his 3.86 ERA and 3.56 FIP are getting closer to what we are used to seeing out of him. However, Strider still has one last hurdle he needs to clear before he fully returns to the dominant pitcher we saw for all of 2023.
Strider getting more whiffs on his fastball is the final piece to the puzzle
Strider has made a lot of money living off his powerhouse fastball since he arrived to Atlanta. However, post 2024 elbow surgery, Strider's velocity has been a major talking point for much of the season. We've seen an uptick in fastball velo as he has distanced himself from the early season hamstring injury, but Strider is still failing to generate the same rate of whiffs he once did with his four-seamer.
Strider carried a 28.7 whiff% on his fastball during the 2023 season. That year, he also averaged 97.2 mph on his heater. After nine starts thus far in 2025, Strider's whiff% on his fastball has dipped to 18.1%. Of course, that coincides with a dip in velocity as well (Strider is averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball in 2025).
When Strider is attacking the best hitters with his fastball you know he's feeling good. Sadly, Strider is currently having to lean on his slider a little bit more for the swing and miss until the fastball catches up to where he wants it to be. It's a credit to Strider for getting good results while he works out a few more kinks throughout the season.
The pitching has been the least of the Braves problems recently, but Strider regaining another 1-2 mph on his fastball should shoot that whiff% back up to elite levels. What follows would be Strider returning to the dominant pitcher fans fell in love with a couple of seasons ago.