After missing over a year to a UCL surgery, Atlanta Braves fans were eager to see if Spencer Strider could regain his ace form. After a few speed bumps, including a hamstring injury that knocked the righty out for a month, and a few starts that likely indicated Strider needed a couple of rehab starts, the 26-year-old has settled in.
While the results don't point to Strider ever being the Cy Young candidate he was in 2022 and 2023, Braves fans should feel confident in Spencer Strider's future.
Braves should feel optimistic for Spencer Strider's future even if he is never what he once was
Pitchers coming off of major elbow surgery are always question marks. While some have no issue returning right back to the ace they were prior to the surgery, some pitchers never come close to the success they once had.
For a flame thrower like Strider, who was heavily reliant on velocity before his injury, there were concerns that the righty could return to his elite form, especially considering that it was his second UCL-related surgery.
Through his first 15 starts, that question hasn't been definitively answered, but there are signs of what we can expect from Strider going forward.
Number 99 has thrown 82.1 innings with a matching 4.04 ERA and FIP. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings, his ERA ranks 62nd out of 118, almost perfectly in the middle, while his FIP ranks 51st out of 118.
Of course, Strider's first five stats were challenging, to say the least. The righty had a 5.40 ERA and 5.59 FIP. His fastball velocity, which averaged 97.6 MPH from 2022-2024 was averaging just 95.1 MPH.
Since his June 14 start, however, the story has been quite different. Strider has a 3.45 ERA and 3.37 FIP with a fastball averaging 95.8. His FIP currently ranks 23rd out of 83 qualified starters, while his ERA ranks 36th.
Strider's fastball velocity has fluctuated from game to game, but his max game velocity is 96.2 MPH, which he's done twice (June 13 and August 6). His fastball, which was one of the best pitches in baseball, has been hit fairly hard, with batters hitting .284 and slugging .462 off the pitch. Baseball Savant currently grades out as a negative pitch.
If Strider's fastball was still is bread and butter pitch, it would be understandable to be sounding the alarms. However, thankfully Strider has made adjustments. He's not only throwing his slider more than he ever has, up to 36.8% of the time, batters are still struggling to hit it, batting just .186 off of the pitch.
Spencer is still one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game as well. Since June 13, he has the sixth-highest K/9 at 11.62, right behind Paul Skenes in this span. While 3.45 BB/9 leaves some room for improvement, it's a far cry from being the worst in the league.
Overall, Strider has been a good pitcher for a club whose starting rotation has been decimated by injury. The velocity concerns are certainly valid, but Strider has shown over the last two months he's fully capable of being a good, dependable (albeit not Cy Young-caliber) starting pitcher when the Braves have needed it the most.
If this is who Spencer Strider is for the next few years, the Braves will be very satisfied.
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