Projecting results in the game of baseball is a thankless science. No matter how much work goes into the methodology and data collection when building projection systems, fans of teams that perform well will love them and fans of those who don't will call them frauds. In the case of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections and the Atlanta Braves, it has been a difficult history.
For whatever reason (and no, it isn't nefarious...probably), PECOTA has pretty famously been down on the Braves over the years compared to other projection systems. Each system has it's quirks and however BP has constructed PECOTA just wasn't as big a fan of the Braves' roster construction. It didn't stop the Braves from winning a ton of division titles and it didn't stop PECOTA from doing their thing.
However, after picking the Braves to win the division last year, PECOTA has picked the Braves again to win the NL East in 2025 which makes us wonder if PECOTA picking Atlanta may actually be bad news.
PECOTA has been hard on the Braves in the past. Despite the questions in the back of the rotation and injuries in the bullpen - the Braves are still projected to trail just the Dodgers in wins. pic.twitter.com/rQrz719XIk
— Gaurav (@gvedak) February 3, 2025
Could PECOTA picking the Braves to win the NL East actually be a curse
If we look at the 2023 season, PECOTA picked the Braves to finish second in the division by about five games to the Mets. Instead, Atlanta won 104 games with a 14 game lead over the second place Phillies. The Mets finished 75-87 for those wondering at home.
Fast forward to last season where PECOTA actually predicted the Braves to win the division for a change. The end result? A second place finish in the division after one of the most frustrating, injury-filled seasons in recent memory where the Braves were lucky to even get into the playoffs at all.
Look, there is no science involved here at this point. Based purely on an incredibly small sample based on almost nothing, being loved by PECOTA is actually a curse. If the good folks at Baseball Prospectus could make some tweaks to make it where they hate the Braves again, we would take it as a kindness. Please and thank you. If not, we will also settle for removing whatever curse was placed on Atlanta last year. Whatever it was that brought your wrath, we are sorry.