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Where does the Braves' starting rotation rank among the NL East in 2024?

Now that the Atlanta Braves have made their splashy starting pitcher acquisition, it seems like the perfect time to rank the NL East's starting pitching rotations!

By Seth Carter |
Atlanta Braves v New York Mets - Game Two
Atlanta Braves v New York Mets - Game Two / Rich Schultz/GettyImages
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Now that Chris Sale has joined the Atlanta Braves starting rotation, we decided to rank all the projected starting pitching rotations in the NL East. Where do the Braves stack up against the rest of the division? Let's find out.

To determine the ranks, we used FGDC projections for innings and ERA projections to determine where each team lands.

5. Washington Nationals

1. Josiah Gray | 177 IP, 5.21 ERA
2. Mackenzie Gore | 152 IP, 4.16 ERA
3. Jake Irvin | 124 IP, 4.95 ERA
4. Patrick Corbin | 166 IP, 4.87 ERA
5. Trevor Williams | 123 IP, 5.18 ERA

Josiah Gray's underlying metrics and bad second half don't bode well for the Nats in 2024. Mackenzie Gore may claim ace status this season. Not much else going on with this rotation. In 2024, we will see the merciful end of Patrick Corbin's reign of terror. Corbin will earn $35 million this season to (most likely) be one of the back-end starters on the worst rotation in the NL East.

4. New York Mets

1. Kodai Senga | 187 IP, 3.75 ERA
2. Jose Quintana | 168 IP, 4.23 ERA
3. Luis Severino | 144 IP, 4.28 ERA
4. Sean Manaea | 148 IP, 3.99 ERA
5. Adrian Houser | 141 IP, 4.57 ERA

This rotation was ranked number one in our pre-season divisional rankings last year. Now it is full of veteran pitchers with questionable track records. The Mets are relying on bounce-backs from Luis Severino and Sean Manaea (they are spending a lot of money on that bet, too). Jose Quintana has pitched fewer than 76 innings in two of the past three seasons. He is entering his age-35 season. Outside of Senga, Mets fans can't feel very good about anything in this rotation. They are crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

Championship Series - Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five
Championship Series - Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Five / Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages

3. Philadelphia Phillies

1. Zack Wheeler | 200 IP, 3.54 ERA
2. Aaron Nola | 198 IP, 3.81 ERA
3. Ranger Suarez | 155 IP, 4.04 ERA
4. Taijuan Walker | 175 IP, 4.75 ERA
5. Cristopher Sanchez | 139 IP, 4.04 ERA

Zack Wheeler is a stud at the top of this rotation. Aaron Nola is getting paid like one, and the rest of the staff is solid. Much will depend on which Aaron Nola shows up this year and how many of the Marlins' young pitchers can make the next step. Cristopher Sanchez has shown a lot of potential for the Phillies and gives them a nice upside play at the back end of the rotation.

2. Miami Marlins

1. Jesus Luzardo | 181 IP, 3.74 ERA
2. Eury Perez | 132 IP, 4.08 ERA
3. Braxton Garrett | 164 IP, 3.96 ERA
4. Edward Cabrera | 139 IP, 4.14 ERA
5. Trevor Rogers | 131 IP, 4.07 ERA

The Marlins' talented young pitching staff is strong. Despite having just two guys projected to crack the sub-4.00 ERA mark, the other three aren't projected to go very far over. These projections tend to be pretty conservative, so it's easy to see that they have talent up and down the rotation. This should be a fun staff to watch in 2024.

Atlanta Braves v New York Mets - Game Two
Atlanta Braves v New York Mets - Game Two / Rich Schultz/GettyImages

1. Atlanta Braves

1. Spencer Strider | 185 IP, 3.18 ERA
2. Max Fried | 185 IP, 3.57 ERA
3. Charlie Morton | 165 IP, 4.18 ERA
4. Chris Sale | 141 IP, 3.74 ERA
5. Bryce Elder | 138 IP, 4.69 ERA

Strider is projected for 4.9 fWAR, the most among all starting pitchers in the NL East. On paper, Chris Sale looks great in the fourth spot of this rotation. Sale's injury history over the past few years has caused prognosticators hesitation in their prognostications on Sale in 2024. That's one reason I think Chris Sale will be a great value in fantasy baseball drafts.

The top four spots in the rotation are so solid that they give the Braves a lot of leeway with the fifth spot. Bryce Elder can take his shot this year, after a rough second half in 2023. If that doesn't work out, the Braves will have the flexibility to try out some of the young guys like AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep... or whomever they choose. Read more about how AJ Smith-Shawver could take the fifth spot in the rotation.

Conclusion

The Marlins have a lot of talent in their rotation and the Phillies have a couple of proven commodities at the top. However, no rotation comes close to having the depth and quality of the Atlanta Braves. Alex Anthopoulos has done an excellent job at making sure this team doesn't run into the same issue they've run into over the last couple of seasons.

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