Comparing contracts that give us an idea of what Max Fried will want
Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115M ($23M AAV) deal and Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162M ($27M AAV) contracts are the closest comps for the next Fried contract.
Rodón featured K-rates of 34.6% and 33.4% and was worth more than 5.0 fWAR in his two seasons before free agency. The Yankees saw Rodón as a 1A behind Cole and paid him that way despite his history of arm injuries. His contract is now two years old and it hasn't b
Ray produced a greater than 31% strikeout rate from 2017 through 2019 and in 2021 he had produced consistent three-win seasons for Toronto when he signed his deal after the 2021 season. He might have grabbed a bigger deal but the post-Covid market was affected by an asinine lockout.
Aside from a pitcher who plays at 31 and works hard at his craft to the point of being a perfectionist, a signing team will get one of the game’s best at coaxing ground balls when needed with Max Fried.
Ignoring his first two starts this year, he’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 147.2 innings over 25 starts due to a 59% GB rate, five points higher than his career average and a .280 BABIP which is down 14 points from his career number.
“He did a tremendous job today of giving us seven great innings and giving us a chance to win”
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) September 7, 2024
Travis d'Arnaud on Max Fried🔊 https://t.co/9FUEzqnGUs pic.twitter.com/tvKSQPDki7
He’s not striking out as many batters as Ray or Rodón, he’s walking more than usual, and his strand rate is down roughly 6% over the last three seasons, but that’s likely due to missing time through injury.
MLBTR suggested that Fried’s floor is $140M, but “with a strong finish,” Fried could get $162M. In a recent chat, Steve Adams gave his personal view. He states, "Bigger concern for me, I think, would be the consecutive years with a forearm injury. But I still think he's getting a minimum of five years with a chance at six -- annual values in the $22-26MM range in play."
Looking at Ray’s three-year-old contract, an AAV of around $24M looks right. That could be a doable amount for the Braves over four or five years, with an option for a sixth year.
As I noted earlier, Fried will likely shoot for more money and a longer deal since he's entering the latter half of his career. His agency could try to convince everyone Fried’s the second coming of Lefty Grove and ask for $180 - $200M over seven years.
Some owner or GM on the hot seat may give it to him, and it’s his right to ask for whatever he wants and take as much as he can get, but that’s too much for that contract length.
When Max Fried is at his best, watching him pitch is a beautiful thing. He’s smart, and his devastating curve is impossible to hit. Barring injury, he’ll adapt and stick around for a long time. As much as I enjoy watching him pitch, the signs are there that he’s crested the hill.
Fried’s blister history isn’t a big deal for the Braves, but the recurrence of issues with an elbow surgically repaired eight years ago and forearm issues are a significant red flag. I doubt the Braves will offer him a contract with the AAV and length he’s looking for.