What will it cost the Atlanta Braves to bring Max Fried back in the offseason?

The Braves know these things to be true: Max Fried will test free agency, and his agency, CAA Sports, will look to get their client the best deal possible. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta, which has struggled to commit to large free agency deals. Neither of those things bodes well for Fried’s return to Atlanta.

Predicting Max Fried’s isn’t a simple task. We can’t know which owner will try to cut payroll and which will spend as if there’s no tomorrow.  We don’t know what a player tells his agent about where he will and won't sign, and we know some teams have a history of not caring about the penalties for signing a free agent with a qualifying offer. So, let's look at what we do know.

What will it truly cost the Atlanta Braves to bring Max Fried back in the offseason?

Here’s what we can say with 99%+ certainty. The Braves will offer Max Fried a QO, and he will likely turn it down.

Depending on your source, Fried is currently providing between four million (Fangraphs) and six million (Spotrac) dollars in excess value to his current $15 million contract ($19-$21 million). The projected $21M QO is essentially a pay cut.

Fried’s the MLBPA player rep for the Braves. He’ll follow the union line of seeking the best contract his agency can squeeze out of a team for six or seven years, but he’ll be 31 next year, so a pillow contract isn’t worth the risk. He knows what he’ll take if the one he wants isn't available.

Since the 2007-2008 offseason, B.J. Upton’s five-year $75.3M was the largest free-agent contract the Braves have given, and Derek Lowe’s four-year, $60M deal was the longest deal given to a pitcher. Even Charlie Morton’s series of one-year deals only totals four years and $80M.

According to the folks at MLBTR, Corbin Burnes sits atop the 2024-2025 market for starting pitchers, followed by Snell if, as everyone predicts, he opts out of his deal with the Giants. Fried is the third pitcher on their list, closely followed by Jack Flaherty. Farther down are third starters like Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino.

Max Scherzer is on the list as well but he hasn’t been healthy for two years and may have to take an incentive-laden pillow contract to prove his fitness.

There’s talk of Gerrit Cole opting out of the $144M he’s guaranteed through 2028 to force the Yankees to exercise their $36M option for 2029, which overrides his opt-out. I doubt he does that after a year that saw injuries limit his time, but even if he does, his presence and that of Scherzer may slow, but won’t affect Fried’s final deal.

Fried's injury history will be a major tipping point for the Braves

Since having UCL replacement surgery in 2016, Fried has suffered from the occasional strained hamstring and stiff back, but his only recurring injury has been blisters on his pitching hand.

Those blisters cost him two months in 2018, two weeks in 2019, 10 days in 2021, and kept him out of the playoffs in 2023. In his next to last outing this season, he seemed to be staring at his finger a lot, and some speculated it was a blister issue, but he made his next start on time. 

Blisters won’t lower his market value, but Fried hit the IL on May 9, 2023, with a left forearm strain. His forearm issue appeared on July 21 this year, keeping him off the bump until August 4.

The 2021 and 2022 seasons saw Fried at his best, pitching to a 2.74 ERA over 351 IP in 58 starts, but he hasn’t been his best since then. 2024 has been full of ups and downs despite Fried being named an All-Star.