What will it cost the Atlanta Braves to bring Max Fried back in the offseason?
The Atlanta Braves’ most dependable starter is a free agent after the World Series, and bringing him back will likely cost too much for too long.
The Braves know these things to be true: Max Fried will test free agency, and his agency, CAA Sports, will look to get their client the best deal possible. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta, which has struggled to commit to large free agency deals. Neither of those things bodes well for Fried’s return to Atlanta.
Predicting Max Fried’s isn’t a simple task. We can’t know which owner will try to cut payroll and which will spend as if there’s no tomorrow. We don’t know what a player tells his agent about where he will and won't sign, and we know some teams have a history of not caring about the penalties for signing a free agent with a qualifying offer. So, let's look at what we do know.
What will it truly cost the Atlanta Braves to bring Max Fried back in the offseason?
Here’s what we can say with 99%+ certainty. The Braves will offer Max Fried a QO, and he will likely turn it down.
Depending on your source, Fried is currently providing between four million (Fangraphs) and six million (Spotrac) dollars in excess value to his current $15 million contract ($19-$21 million). The projected $21M QO is essentially a pay cut.
Fried’s the MLBPA player rep for the Braves. He’ll follow the union line of seeking the best contract his agency can squeeze out of a team for six or seven years, but he’ll be 31 next year, so a pillow contract isn’t worth the risk. He knows what he’ll take if the one he wants isn't available.
Since the 2007-2008 offseason, B.J. Upton’s five-year $75.3M was the largest free-agent contract the Braves have given, and Derek Lowe’s four-year, $60M deal was the longest deal given to a pitcher. Even Charlie Morton’s series of one-year deals only totals four years and $80M.
According to the folks at MLBTR, Corbin Burnes sits atop the 2024-2025 market for starting pitchers, followed by Snell if, as everyone predicts, he opts out of his deal with the Giants. Fried is the third pitcher on their list, closely followed by Jack Flaherty. Farther down are third starters like Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino.
Max Scherzer is on the list as well but he hasn’t been healthy for two years and may have to take an incentive-laden pillow contract to prove his fitness.
There’s talk of Gerrit Cole opting out of the $144M he’s guaranteed through 2028 to force the Yankees to exercise their $36M option for 2029, which overrides his opt-out. I doubt he does that after a year that saw injuries limit his time, but even if he does, his presence and that of Scherzer may slow, but won’t affect Fried’s final deal.
Fried's injury history will be a major tipping point for the Braves
Since having UCL replacement surgery in 2016, Fried has suffered from the occasional strained hamstring and stiff back, but his only recurring injury has been blisters on his pitching hand.
Those blisters cost him two months in 2018, two weeks in 2019, 10 days in 2021, and kept him out of the playoffs in 2023. In his next to last outing this season, he seemed to be staring at his finger a lot, and some speculated it was a blister issue, but he made his next start on time.
Blisters won’t lower his market value, but Fried hit the IL on May 9, 2023, with a left forearm strain. His forearm issue appeared on July 21 this year, keeping him off the bump until August 4.
The 2021 and 2022 seasons saw Fried at his best, pitching to a 2.74 ERA over 351 IP in 58 starts, but he hasn’t been his best since then. 2024 has been full of ups and downs despite Fried being named an All-Star.
Comparing contracts that give us an idea of what Max Fried will want
Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115M ($23M AAV) deal and Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162M ($27M AAV) contracts are the closest comps for the next Fried contract.
Rodón featured K-rates of 34.6% and 33.4% and was worth more than 5.0 fWAR in his two seasons before free agency. The Yankees saw Rodón as a 1A behind Cole and paid him that way despite his history of arm injuries. His contract is now two years old and it hasn't b
Ray produced a greater than 31% strikeout rate from 2017 through 2019 and in 2021 he had produced consistent three-win seasons for Toronto when he signed his deal after the 2021 season. He might have grabbed a bigger deal but the post-Covid market was affected by an asinine lockout.
Aside from a pitcher who plays at 31 and works hard at his craft to the point of being a perfectionist, a signing team will get one of the game’s best at coaxing ground balls when needed with Max Fried.
Ignoring his first two starts this year, he’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 147.2 innings over 25 starts due to a 59% GB rate, five points higher than his career average and a .280 BABIP which is down 14 points from his career number.
He’s not striking out as many batters as Ray or Rodón, he’s walking more than usual, and his strand rate is down roughly 6% over the last three seasons, but that’s likely due to missing time through injury.
MLBTR suggested that Fried’s floor is $140M, but “with a strong finish,” Fried could get $162M. In a recent chat, Steve Adams gave his personal view. He states, "Bigger concern for me, I think, would be the consecutive years with a forearm injury. But I still think he's getting a minimum of five years with a chance at six -- annual values in the $22-26MM range in play."
Looking at Ray’s three-year-old contract, an AAV of around $24M looks right. That could be a doable amount for the Braves over four or five years, with an option for a sixth year.
As I noted earlier, Fried will likely shoot for more money and a longer deal since he's entering the latter half of his career. His agency could try to convince everyone Fried’s the second coming of Lefty Grove and ask for $180 - $200M over seven years.
Some owner or GM on the hot seat may give it to him, and it’s his right to ask for whatever he wants and take as much as he can get, but that’s too much for that contract length.
When Max Fried is at his best, watching him pitch is a beautiful thing. He’s smart, and his devastating curve is impossible to hit. Barring injury, he’ll adapt and stick around for a long time. As much as I enjoy watching him pitch, the signs are there that he’s crested the hill.
Fried’s blister history isn’t a big deal for the Braves, but the recurrence of issues with an elbow surgically repaired eight years ago and forearm issues are a significant red flag. I doubt the Braves will offer him a contract with the AAV and length he’s looking for.