This needs to be Bryce Elder’s last chance to stick in the Braves rotation
The former Braves All-Star may have reached the end of the road in 2024.
Former top Braves prospect Bryce Elder has been a consistent spot starter for the team in 2024. Elder hasn't been able to replicate his breakout All-Star season from 2023 and it's been tough to watch at times. He has a 5.67 ERA through nine starts (46 innings) with 15 walks and 40 strikeouts this year.
His most recent start against the Brewers and Reynaldo Lopez's addition to the injured list allowed Elder the opportunity to start another game for Atlanta. He pitched 6.1 innings and allowed one run on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.
Elder's statcast profile provides reason as to why he has been allowed to hang around this season. He has an excellent ground ball percentage of 50% which is in the 83rd percentile across Major League Baseball. Outside of that metric, he only has two other above-average metrics which include a 7.3% walk rate and a 29.8% chase rate.
This is why he has struggled since becoming an All-Star a season ago. He's regressed dramatically and is below average in key metrics including xERA, xBA, K%, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. His hard-hit percentage in particular sits at 44.6% and isn't a recipe for success in the big leagues.
Bryce Elder after tonight’s start: “I was glad to come up here and give us a chance. I thought tonight I just kinda made pitches when I needed to where I haven’t been in the past few weeks, so I was pleased with it.” pic.twitter.com/V3cBbJBZMO
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) July 31, 2024
These metrics explain why he has remained on the fringe of the Braves rotation this season. He will remain a spot-starter unless those stats magically improve. Elder's 4.26 FIP indicates he's pitched into some bad luck but it also could be attributed to his incredibly high groundball rate.
He is starting against the Brewers for the second time in a week Tuesday evening and this needs to be his last chance. Atlanta cannot afford to find themselves down early in games and Elder hasn't shown the ability to keep runs off the board often enough. The offense finding themselves down multiple runs early in games isn't ideal if they hope to win the division or maintain their NL Wild Card lead.
AJ Smith-Shawver has more than earned an opportunity to show what he can provide the team. He has a better chance of missing bats and has much more upside. Elder has shown who he is and the metrics back up his ceiling as an MLB starter. The Braves need him this time around with Reynaldo Lopez on the IL but after that, he should be sent to Triple-A for the remainder of the season.
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