There has been a lot of discourse lately over the use of the sixth starter for the Atlanta Braves as they try to grind through a full 162 game season. So far this season the Braves have utilized: Bryce Elder (10 games), Grant Holmes (3 games), Ray Kerr (2 games), Darius Vines (2 games), Allan Winans (2 games), Hurston Waldrep (2 games), and AJ Smith-Shawver (1 game) to mixed results and understandably fans have been frustrated over the use of these players.
It is fair to assume that the reason the Braves have utilized a six man rotation to limit the workload of their starting pitchers so lets dig into the numbers and then focus on why it makes sense, especially in one specific occasion.
Chris Sale, who has been absolutely outstanding this season is already at 127.2 innings pitched - the most he has thrown since 2019. Charlie Morton, who has been a workhorse later in his career, is at 114.2 innings pitched, but most importantly is 40 years old.
Reynaldo Lopez, one of the most underrated signings of the offseason across all of baseball, is currently sitting at 104.2 innings which is the most he has pitched 2019 when he threw 184 innings for the Chicago White Sox. Finally, the person we will focus on for the purpose of this article, we have Spencer Schwellenbach who has firmly planted himself as a mainstay in the rotation for a long time.
The Braves rookie has already thrown more innings than expected
Just last week David O’Brien of the Athletic tweeted that the Braves had not Spencer penciled in for a start against the Colorado Rockies:
Max Fried will start Saturday and TBA for Sunday series finale at Colorado https://t.co/F8u0oXlG67
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) August 8, 2024
Now ultimately, Spencer did make that start and was fantastic - especially for a rookie making his first start in Colorado. The Rockies stadium not only has thinner air, resulting in less drag and allowing for balls to be hit further, but also the spin of the ball is impacted resulting in pitches not moving as much as they do outside of the Colorado which can cause some real issues, psychologically, for pitchers.
That being said, Spencer was still great (6IP 6H 2ER 2BB 7K) in one of the Braves worst losses of the season. Outside of the Coors effect, why else would the Braves seek to limit Schwellenbach’s innings? Well, really, it’s relatively easy to understand the Braves logic.
Once you factor in Spencer’s time down in the minors, Spencer is already at 115 innings pitched this year which would trail only Chris Sale, on the Braves pitching staff, by 12 innings. In 2023, his only other year in professional baseball, Spencer had a total of 65 innings pitched - a 77% increase from last year and we are still at the start of August.
When you factor in his total of 31.2 innings pitched in college back in 2021, Spencer has pitched a total of 96.2 innings total prior to 2024. Said another way, Spencer has pitched a total of 19% more innings this year, than the rest of his pitching career (college and forward) combined. This figure doesn’t even include pitches thrown, and the added arm stress of pitching in the minors and college versus the professional ranks.
Schwelly had Tommy John surgery in 2022
Quickly glossed over in the previous section is the fact that just two years ago Spencer underwent Tommy John surgery - a surgery that takes significant time to rehab and build up from. Spencer missed all of 2022 due to the injury, and then was very limited in 2023 where he had, again, 65 total innings pitched.
This is his first full season and while it’s safe to imagine he has no restrictions, it takes time to build up the arm strength to go through a full season and with the potential role that Spencer has on the pitching staff for the foreseeable future, it’s important to be safe with him to ensure his continued health for this season and beyond. The Braves find themselves with the difficult job of figuring out how to balance their long term objectives with their short term objectives of a playoff run this year.