The Atlanta Braves top five prospects entering 2024

My rundown of the Atlanta Braves top ten prospects consolidates lists posted by Baseball Prospectus ($), Baseball America ($), and The Outfield Fly Rule. Those lists didn’t offer a consensus pick at any position, so I averaged the rankings to create this list.

If you didn’t read part one (why) of prospects 10 to 6, here’s what you missed; note the tie at 9th.

• 10: Luis Guanipa 18 – OF–DSL, BA- unranked, BP – 7th, OFFR 13th. FV 45/50 Average outfielder with occasional big pop. 
• 9: Drue Hackenberg 22 – RHP – Low A, BA 9th, BP 8th, OFFR 9th. FV/45 Back of the rotation starter. 
• 9: Drake Baldwin 23 – C – AA, BA 7th, BP 10th, OFFR 8th. FV/45 First-division backup catcher.
• 8: Cade Kuehler (Key-ler) 21 – RHP – Low A, BA 10, BP 8, OFFR 5. FV/45 Back of the rotation starter.
• 7: David McCabe 2B – 3B – A/A+, BA 6, BP unrated, OFFR 10. FV/45 Likely somewhere besides third base.
• 6: Ignacio (Nacho) Alvarez 20 – 3B/SS FV 45/55 Above-average starter who contributes in a multitude of ways

Now, go back, read my post, and learn why...please.

Macy’s has its Thanksgiving Day parade, and the Atlanta Braves have a parade of right-handed pitchers. There aren’t any floats in this parade, but there are a few big arms.

5: JR Ritchie RHP 20 BA:3 BP:6 OFFR: 6

JR Ritchie might well have topped this list. He featured a 94MPH fastball that regularly touched 98 and located it well. His slide piece had a 2500 RPM spin rate that broke hard down and away and backed it up with a mid-80s changeup.  

Through his first four starts this spring, he threw 13 1/3 innings, struck out 13 batters, walked three – yes, three as in 3 – yet somehow game up eight runs. His 5.40 ERA sounds bad, but his 0.63 FIP and 1.05 WHIP indicate it looks worse than it was. Then his UCL gave up.

Ritchie won’t pitch again until mid-2024 or later. I’m in favor of later because all data shows that the longer you give an arm to heal, the better the chance of a full and longer-lasting recovery. He’s an extremely high-risk arm, let's give him more time than he thinks he needs.

FV 50-55 Ritchie could return as a four or five starter or become a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.

4:Spencer Schwellenbach RHP 23 – RHP A+ BA:5 BP:5 OFFR: 4

Schwellenbach is the first of the big arms on the list. He had UCL replacement surgery after the Atlanta Braves selected him and didn’t pitch until this season.

He features a four-pitch mix led by a 94-96 mph fastball that touched 98 but lacks movement, a firm slider that can look more like a cutter that sits 85-89 and was a weapon for him this year, a curve with good depth that creates swing-and-miss in the mid to low 80s, and a middle of the road changeup.

The Braves moved him from the pen to a starting role where his stuff dominated at both levels of A-ball this year. He’s always been a strike thrower, but he wasn’t a strike out as many batters as his stuff indicates he might, and his walk rate jumped a bit, but he did force a 51% ground ball rate with Augusta.

While his elbow held up well, and his velocity returned after surgery, he did miss time with shoulder soreness after the Futures Game. That’s understandable after nearly two years away from competitive pitching but remains something to watch.

I expect the Braves to continue to use him as a starter, but a ninth-inning bullpen role isn’t out of the question.

FV 50 Back-end starter with some upside and a decent relief fallback

3: Owen Murphy RHP 20 – BA:4 BP:2 OFFR: 3

When the Atlanta Braves drafted Murphy, he featured a high 90s fastball. This season, it’s more 90-93 but averaged over 19 inches of induced vertical break that caused a ton of swing and miss at the top of the zone (68% strikes). He backs the heater up with an improved low-80s Luke Jacksonesque slider (71% strikes) and a mid-70s curveball with high spin rates.

The OFFR pointed out that he can be frustrating to watch at times.

“…he will go through stretches where he appears dominant, then lose his release point or his concentration and allow runs in bunches…in his next start he’ll take a no-hitter in the 7th.”

I’d call that normal at this stage of his development; he plays at 20 next year and probably still has fond memories of his senior prom.

FV BA:50 BP:55 Murphy projects as a number three or four starter with upside.

1. AJ Smith-Shawver RHP 21 BA:1 BP: 4 OFFR: 1. BA has AJSS at 53 on baseball’s top-100 player list.

We caught glimpses of the best AJSS when the Atlanta Braves rushed him up last year after Shuster and Dodd weren’t able to hold the job. It wasn't a surprising result as he was just 20 years old with only two games at AA and AA before coming to Atlanta.

AJSS has the best fastball in the system, a 65-grade heater with movement that sits at 95 and touches 99; BA suggests that better command will raise it to a 70-grade pitch. He pairs that with a 60-grade slider, a 55-grade Curve, and a 50-grade changeup.

BA and the OFFR call AJSS a FV 60 frontline starter, while Brickners drops him to a FV55 number three starter because he doesn’t like the shape of his pitches. Both are correct; it’s just that BA and the OFFR are more optimistic.

BA and the OFFR both suggest better command and location are required, and Brickner says better command and movement would immediately move him to the same FV 60.

That’s a Wrap

The Atlanta Braves system may be thin on position players, but they appear to have a lot of pitching – mostly right-handed – on the way.

Since the Rule 4 Amateur draft began in 1965, the Braves have drafted pitching and traded for everything else unless the position player was clearly superior’ a method that works until the pitchers you drafted don’t turn out as hoped.

The Braves farm system is thin, but their top pitching prospects are desirable trade pieces if the need arises. We’ll see at least a couple of these prospects in Atlanta in 2024. We may also see a couple of them moved this winter. If that thought is upsetting, remember, that’s the way we acquired Fried, Swanson, Sean Murphy, and Matt Olson.