Mitch Keller – RHP Pirates
Keller is A 27, earns $2.44M this year, and is under team control through 2025. He throws a four-seamer at 95.5mph (25%), a 94mph sinker (22%), a 90mph cutter (22%), an 83mph slider (17%), and a curve (10%).
In 128 innings over 21 starts, Keller allowed 16 homers, struck out 137, and walked 37 while pitching to a 4.01 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP.
Keller’s the best the Pirates have, and I doubt they’ll let him go easily. In a piece this morning for MLBTR, Mark Polishuk agreed with that assessment.
"…Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal…"
Because of the prospect cost, and the fact that Ben Cherrington isn’t an idiot, I’d set the odds of Keller becoming a Braves at 5%; that’s high, but I’m an optimist.
Aaron Civale – RHP Guardians
Civale earns $2.6M this year and is under team control via arbitration through 2025. He throws an 88mph cutter(39%), a 78mph curve(25%), a 92mph sinker (16%), and a 92mph four-seamer (13%) to keep batters honest.
Civale’s having his best year with Cleveland, pitching to a 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, striking out 54, and walking 20 in 71 IP over 12 starts. He induces batters to chase pitches off the at a 34% rate and features a 39.6% groundball rate.
Speculation about his availability stems from the moves the Guardians made in recent years, trading Kluber, Bauer, and Clevinger to boost their system and replacing them with a seemingly endless line of young pitchers.
The Guardians are in second place in the weakest division in baseball and playing .500 ball, 1.5 games behind the Twins. Fangraphs gives them a 25% chance of winning the division and a 0.5% chance of winning a Wild Card series.
I suspect they will trade and a deal including Smith-Shawver and Owen Murphy is, on paper, fair value. However, the Guardians need run producers. Maybe there’s a three-team deal that works, but on their own, the Braves can’t offer what the Guardians need.
The odds of Civale becoming a Brave via trade, 15%.
That’s a Wrap
The odds of finding a controllable starting pitcher worth the investment are thin, but if anyone can make it happen, Anthopoulos can.
The more likely outcome is acquiring a rental like Jordan Montgomery from St. Louis and adding more late-inning bullpen depth. I’ll discuss that option in my next post.