Ranking the worst contracts in the NL East

Whether it’s spending a lot of money searching for a title or extending a player for too much too soon, teams inevitably write a stinker along the way.

Ranking the worst contracts in the National League East

The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins don’t have a bad active contract because they don’t have a significant contract on the books for 2025.

• The Marlins' only guaranteed contract in 2025 is Sandy Alcántara’s $17.3M. Alcántara hasn’t thrown a pitch for the franchise at any level for a year, but in an age when it’s not unusual to draft a pitcher who just had UCL replacement surgery, it’s unreasonable to suggest it’s a bad deal.
• Keibert Ruiz makes $5.4M next year and is the only player on the Nationals roster with a guaranteed contract for 2025.

I know the Nats will pay Steven Strasburg $35M next year, but he’s retired, and Mike Rizzo’s done an excellent job of grabbing and growing prospects without tanking; look for the Nationals to spend big this winter.

They aren’t bad yet, but…

Any deal that takes a player into his late 30s or farther is a bad contract waiting to happen, and NL East teams have a few of these on the books, starting with the Mets.

Brandon Nimmo’s success depends on his legs and strike-zone awareness, but he’s lost time with hamstring and quad injuries every year. At 31, and he’s still a two-win player, history suggests that his $20.5M contract will look like an overpay in the near future.

Francisco Lindor is 30 and having an MVP-caliber season, but it’s a stretch to think he’ll be worth $34.1M in 2031 when he’s a 38-year-old shortstop.

Closer Edwin Diaz is still one of the best closers around, but he’s 30, and his trumpets aren’t as loud this year. Closers are fragile, and paying a closer who throws as hard as Diaz an AAV of $19.5M is risky.

The Phillies and Braves

The Phillies will pay Aaron Nola an AAV of $24.5M through his age 37 season. Nola is quietly one of the game’s best pitchers in big-game situations, and the relative value of his contract will diminish over time, but it’s hard to see this deal holding up that long.

The Braves acquired Sean Murphy because he was better on both sides of the ball than William Contreras’ projections moving forward. Murphy’s offense almost vanished as he struggled with illness and injury over the last 15 months. His defense makes him a 2.5 fWAR catcher this year, and he can’t remain in BAbip purgatory forever, but it’s fair to wonder whether his $15M will remain a good value in the final two years of his deal.

Number 4 - Taijuan Walker, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Four Years (2023-2026), $72 million ($18M AAV)

The Phillies signed Taijuan Walker as a pitcher they hoped would take the ball every fifth day and protect their bullpen.

Walker delivered that in 2023, pitching to a 4.38 ERA over 172+ IP, but 2024 has been a disaster. He started the season on the IL with a shoulder impingement, returning for his first start on April 28. He started every fifth day through June 2, and with six days or more rest in his remaining June starts, but he ended the month with a 5.60 ERA and returned to the IL with a sprained finger on June 23.

His August return was worse: he threw only 17 innings in four starts with a 9.17 ERA, and the club sent him to the bullpen. His two relief appearances since included five innings and five earned runs.

The trouble with shoulder injuries is that they’re should injuries and almost always reoccur. Walker may bounce back, but an $18M middle-inning reliever is a luxury, making this contract look bad.

Number 3- Starling Marte, OF, New York Mets
Four Years (2022-2025), $78M ($19.5M AAV)

Like Walker for the Phillies. Marte’s 2022 made his contract look like a great deal, but players such as Marte depend on their legs to add value on the basepath as well as help them cover ground in the outfield and provide a sound base at the plate.

Marte had issues with his left quad and groin in 2022 but missed only a couple of days. In 2023, he was noticeably slower in the outfield and ended the year with a .625 OPS and 72 wRC+ after a season-ending groin injury in August.

Marte’s 2024 looks the same as 2023. He’s batting .266/.312/.389.700 with seven homers in 82 games while losing time with a sore right knee.

Like all of us, Martes will lose the fight with old age, and his contract looks bad as a result.

Number 2 -Nick Castellanos, OF/DH, Philadelphia Phillies
Five Years (2022-2026), $100M ($20M AAV)

In March 2022, Dave Dombrowski did a very Dave Dombrowski thing: he added two players best suited in the role of DH, and both ended up playing more outfield than anyone with a baseball IQ above 10 would want.

Kyle Schwarber acted like himself, hitting 46 homers and posting a .827 OPS, but Nick Castellanos fell off a cliff, hitting 13 homers and posting a .694 OPS. He recovered to resemble the player he once was in 2023 with a 20-homer season and a .788 OPS, but 2024 saw him hanging on the edge of the cliff with both hands. He’s hit 20 homers and played 146 games, but he’s batting .245, has a just below league-average 99 wRC+, and his defense makes him worth less than 1 fWAR.

Numbers are down across the board, but Castellanos’ .717 OPS is just a tick under the NL’s .718. His defense has never been good, and it’s worse now than ever, according to all available metrics.

Castellanos’ defense is only going to get worse, but he's a dangerous hitter and is likely to improve if he doesn’t have to play the field, so a team needing a DH would need very little encouragement to take his contract, making it only the second-worst contract in the division.

Number 1- Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Atlanta Braves
Three Years (2024 –2026), $42M ($16M AAV)

The Giants gave Jorge Soler a three-year deal because they were desperate for a power bat, hoping his 2023 was a look at his future. It wasn’t.

The Giants finally gave the Braves $12M to take Soler and Luke Jackson off their hands, and the Braves were desperate enough for power to take the deal.

Soler’s a square peg the Braves are trying to jam into a round hole and with no place to put him over the next two seasons. It would be folly to let Ozuna leave in favor of Soler, but unlike Castellanos, who has 13 hits, including two homers, four doubles, and a 107 wRC+ in 58 high-leverage PA, Soler is 6 for 44 with a double and 20 wRC+ in 44 high-leverage PA.

Even used solely as a DH, he’s not consistent enough to be worth his existing deal, making his contract the worst in the NL East by a large margin.

Injury and old age are the biggest reasons contracts go bad. Every year, a team will pay a player too much for too long, and pundits tell us the team knows the contract will be bad in the long term but is willing to take the risk.

Some teams have to agree to a potentially bad deal to get a free agent to sign there (hello, Colorado), or despite history telling them otherwise, the owner or GM just has to have to have this player.

It’s silly to blame a player for agreeing to earn twice his market value, and, to a degree, it’s easy to see why a team desperate for a player signs a contract they’ll regret sooner rather than later. But knowing that doesn’t make watching it happen any easier.

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