Predicting the Atlanta Braves bullpen hierarchy for 2024
The Braves bullpen is loaded with talented pitchers. But exactly how will the pecking order shake out?
The Atlanta Braves have a bullpen that could end up being the envy of the entire league. While it's highly likely they don't get any All-Star selections from this group, the quality depth could lead them toward another highly ranked finish in terms of collective bullpen WAR.
Alex Anthopoulos has pretty much always invested resources (both money in free agency and trading prospects) since he became the GM in Atlanta. Modern bullpen's don't necessarily have defined roles like they once did, but that won't stop manager Brian Snitker from attempting to utilize these relivers in familiar situations to get the best out of them.
Now that we are inching ever closer toward Spring Training and know the guys who are likely to pitch in relief for Atlanta this year, we will now attempt to put together some sort of bullpen hierarchy. We know each reliever isn't going to be restricted to appearing in certain situations, but we can at least provide our expectations for when fans most likely can expect to see their favorite relievers jog out to the mound.
The proven and the trusted
Closer: Raisel Iglesias - This was an obvious choice after a season with a sub 3.00 ERA and 30 plus saves racked up. Iglesias' ability to rack up strikeouts and limit walks makes him a great solution for end of game duties. If he chooses to tinker with his pitch mix like I talked about in this article, he may be in for an even better 2024.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 55.1 IP, 31 saves, 3.09 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 31.3 K%, 0.9 fWAR
Set-up: A.J. Minter - He is one of the most trusted relievers in all of baseball. Snitker will continue to lean on Minter in key situations late in ballgames. Should Iglesias miss any time with injury, we would expect Minter to be the first choice to fill that void.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 64 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 29.3 K%, 0.9 fWAR
Set-up: Pierce Johnson - Once you get past Minter, you really run into a bunch of guys who have the talent to pitch in high-leverage spots. It's all going to come down to which guys are pitching effectively in any given week. Johnson was a trusted weapon once he came over at the trade deadline, and he was the first signing AA made this offseason. It's clear they really like him.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 51.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 31.3 K%, 0.4 fWAR
Middle relief/High-Leverage: Joe Jimenez - He started slowly last year, but as he got healthier the results started to become better and better. By seasons end Jimenez was a trusted guy out of the bullpen and one Atlanta really wanted to bring back. Thus, they signed him to a three-year deal to utilize out the bullpen once again.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 52.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 31.2 K%, 0.4 fWAR
Multi-inning Joker: Reynaldo Lopez - We end this group with perhaps the biggest wild card of the Braves bullpen. Lopez was signed back in November, and was told to come to camp stretched out in to perhaps be a starting pitcher. Since then Atlanta has traded for Chris Sale, so the need for Lopez to start isn't really there. However, Lopez could very well be used out the bullpen for both multi-innings assignments, and high-leverage moments. For this reason Fangraphs projects him to have the most innings pitched and the highest fWAR out of ALL Braves relief pitchers.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 76 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 26.3 K%, 1.1 fWAR
Lefties looking to bounce back
Middle relief/High-Leverage: Aaron Bummer - 2024 will be Bummer's eighth year in the big leagues, but his first outside the White Sox organization. Haunted by poor defense and bad luck, Bummer will look to get back to the pitcher he has been for the majority of his career. His lifetime 3.84 ERA and 3.38 FIP suggest he can accomplish just that in a Braves uniform.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 54.2 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 29 K%, 0.3 fWAR
Middle relief: Tyler Matzek - He will forever be remembered as a postseason hero in Atlanta. However, if he wants to get back to the effectiveness he had in 2021 Matzek needs to find the velocity on his fastball once again. He is out of options, so I would expect him to break camp on the team, but if the velocity isn't there Matzek could have the end of his Braves tenure tarnished by a rash of unfortunate injuries.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 45 IP, 4.20 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 24.1 K%, 0.0 fWAR
Middle relief: Dylan Lee - When on the mound, Dylan Lee has been an effective big league pitcher. Unfortunately, last season Lee couldn't stay on the field. Should Lee bounce back from his shoulder troubles from last year, he could once again be a relied on pitcher for Brian Snitker.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 48 IP, 3.38 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 26.4 K%, 0.6 fWAR
Low-risk, High-reward: Ray Kerr - The Braves acquired Ray Kerr from San Diego this offseason in the hopes to find a high-velocity arm from the left side. Pitching in just 22 games last season, Kerr posted good strikeout numbers in his limited action. Like most relievers, command is the key for Kerr.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 53.2 IP, 4.36 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 26.1 K%, 0.1 fWAR
Depth pieces hopeful to make an impact
Mop-up duty: Daysbel Hernandez - Daysbel dominated the Braves upper-levels of the minor leagues last year thanks to his devastating arsenal. The gaudy strikeout rate allowed Hernandez to make it all the way to Atlanta before the season ended. His plus fastball and breaking ball combination was enough to earn him a NLDS roster spot. For 2024, Hernandez just needs to string together a longer stretch of his dominate outings to stay up with the big league club.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 33 IP, 4.64 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 26.4 K%, -0.1 fWAR
Long relief: Jackson Stephens - In most bullpens, Jackson Stephens would find himself in higher leverage situations. However, for Atlanta Stephens has found himself in the long relief role each of the last two years. Much of last season was spent with Gwinnett, and I wouldn't be shocked to see it break that way again should the Braves prefer one of the AAAA starting pitcher types in this role.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 50.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 20.3 K%, 0.2 fWAR
Depth left-handed pitcher: Angel Perdomo - 2023 was Perdomo's best showing in his career thus far. In just 29 innings of work, he posted a 3.72 ERA and 3.01 FIP for the Pirates last season. He's not a name on a lot of people's radar, but should those previously mentioned lefties struggle, Perdomo could carve out a role for himself in Atlanta's bullpen.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 43.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 32.5 K%, 0.2 fWAR
Off the radar guy: Hayden Harris - A name almost no one is mentioning is soon to be 25 year-old lefty Hayden Harris. Last year, Harris worked across three levels of the minor leagues, posting K/9 north of 12 at each level. The majority of his season was spent with Double-A Mississippi, where he posted a 2.83 ERA and 2.64 FIP. If he continues that success in the upper levels to begin 2024, don't be surprised if he works his way up to Atlanta this summer.
- Fangraphs Zips projections: 53.2 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 25.3 K%, 0.2 fWAR
Not included in these listed depth pieces are all the guys who will be in Spring Training via non-roster invites. The former shut down closer Ken Giles, and minor league guys like Brooks Wilson fall into this group. Along with the NRI guys, you can expect to see a lot of guys who start games for Triple-A Gwinnett, also make relief appearances for the big league club. These include your Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, Darious Vines, and Huascar Ynoa's of the world.
Regardless of what pecking order the bullpen shakes out, this group of pitchers is more than enough to produce an elite season in 2024. We know what role the "Night Shift" played in the 2021 World Series run, maybe this is the group to get some late night work completed in October once again.
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