Is Charlie Culberson a genuine bullpen option for the Atlanta Braves in 2024?

Charlie Culberson has elite average spin rate

When the Braves and Rangers used Culberson on the mound in mop-up duty, Culberson flashed signs that he wasn't your average position player on the mound.

In his first career game, he showed off a 92.2 MPH fastball with above-average spin. He said after the game that he could do better if he was in shape.

One year later, he picked up his first MLB strikeout with fastballs with an even higher spin rate and a slider/curveball with an elite spin rate that dotted the zone and froze Manuel Margot.

That spin rate was at a 2019 Max Scherzer level, a pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting and who helped lead his team into a World Series victory.

Culberson, of course, never pitched at the major league level on a regular basis, but his average fastball spin rate sat around 2400 every time he pitched.

This season in AAA, the average spin rate on his fastball was 2489 on 68 pitches. This would have tied him with Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow for 45th in MLB among 700 pitchers who threw at least one fastball and 25 pitches (aka 94th percentile fastball spin rate).

Culberson first pitched in April, when he was still a position player and his fastball topped out at 89.4 MPH. In the three games he pitched after converting, it topped out at 93.6 and averaged 91.5.

His slider, which he seldom used in the majors in mop-up duty, is also very impressive. The average spin rate is 2608 on 21 sliders thrown. This would put him at 93rd in the majors (84th percentile), in front of guys like Seth Lugo, Justin Verlander, and Adbert Alzolay, among many others.

Simply put, Culberson isn't someone at the end of his career pulling a Hail Mary hoping to extend his shelf life. He actually has MLB-level stuff.

What about his results?

A pitcher can have nice-looking spin rates, but that doesn't mean much if it doesn't translate to results.

With Culberson, the sample size is small and a 4.91 ERA isn't exciting. Neither is a 9.1% walk rate. But, there still are promising signs.

First of all, his strikeout rate is 22.7%. This is slightly below the average for relievers of 23.6%. Culberson does have a 12.27 K/9, but the number of batters faced dilutes the overall percentage.

Secondly is the high BABIP. Culberson did not allow a homer this year, but a sky-high .400 BABIP that included hitters going 3-3 on groundballs. The average BABIP on grounders this year in the NL was .241.

Of course, Culberson is pitching against AAA hitters and not major league hitters, but, as we know, the fan favorite has already pitched several games at the major league level.

As a position player, the righty has a 1.23 ERA and a 4.12 FIP. He has only picked up the one strikeout, but he's kept the ball in the ballpark and still hasn't allowed a homer in 7.1 innings.

So... Is Culberson a legit option for the Braves bullpen in 2024?

Charlie Culberson has two pitches with elite spin rates. That alone warrants a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training for the Braves.

Culberson should not be overlooked simply because he is a former (current?) position player. There have been several position players within the last decade who have made the majors and then converted to the mound. Javy Guerra came up as a shortstop, and Jason Lane and Anthony Gose came up as outfielders.

However, whether he makes the team is up to his performance. In the majors and minors, he hasn't consistently thrown strikes or gotten batters to chase. He was in the zone 43.8% of the time this season, slightly above the 41.9% MLB average, but he only got batters to chase 28.6% of the time, lower than the 31.9% average.

If Culberson can increase Zone% without sacrificing contact quality or increase chases, there's a good shot we see him in Atlanta on the mound next season.