Going into this season, Fangraphs projected the Braves to finish atop the NL East with 98.1 wins. Now, they are projected to win only 87.4 games, dropping 10.7 games lower than their preseason prediction. With just about 2 months left in the season, the Braves can thank the multitude of injuries that they have endured as the main cause of their drastic record change.
Strider done after 2 starts
Mere weeks into the regular season, Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider went down in just his second start, undergoing UCL surgery to end his season after pitching just 9 frames. Strider finished this season with a 7.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and most importantly, a -0.1 bWAR.
Strider was projected to finish this season with a 4.9 bWAR, the highest wins above replacement by far across all of the Braves' pitching staff. Strider's replacement early on was 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder, but he has been less than stellar, posting a 6.52 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and -0.7 bWAR through 10 starts this season.
The injury to Spencer Strider plus the addition of Elder in his spot, amasses to a whopping 5.5 game difference in projected wins, showing how valuable Strider would have been to the team this season, and how horrible Elder has been in his place. Thankfully, once rookie Spencer Schwellenbach emerged the rotation has stabilized a bit more.
Spencer Strider miss the remainder of the 2024 season after undergoing internal brace surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. pic.twitter.com/xGSz2jPPNu
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) April 13, 2024
Acuna goes down...again
Ronald Acuna Jr. was arguably the biggest blow to the Braves roster this season. Coming off of an unbelievable, record-setting MVP season, big things were expected of the Braves superstar. What came instead though, was a tragedy.
Acuna had torn his ACL in his left knee just 2 years after tearing it in his right knee, officially putting him out for the season. While the Braves were able to overcome the loss of their superstar in 2021 and bring home a championship, the 2024 season was not looking as similar without their MVP in right field. Due to this injury, he finished his 2024 batting .250 to pair with a .716 OPS and only 4 homers, giving him a bWAR of 0.0 flat, 7.4 lower than what he was projected to have.
Once Acuña Jr. went down, the Braves made the platoon of Kelenic and Duvall an everyday outfield. Kelenic is putting together a decent 2024, blasting 13 bombs to pair with a .693 OPS, but has certainly been no Acuña, as he has amounted to 0.9 bWAR so far. If Acuña Jr. were to stay healthy and play to his projected WAR, he could've added a massive 6.5 game difference in the win column for Atlanta.
Ozzie sidelined
While the two previous injuries have played the most part in the Braves' injury woes, Ozzie Albies joined in on the injury parade with a fractured wrist on July 21st, putting him out for 8 weeks. Albies was having himself a decent 2024, hitting .258 with a .717 OPS and a 1.3 bWAR so far, but was replaced by Whit Merrifield after the injury, who was having a not-so-good season.
Merrifield agreed to a deal with the Braves shortly after the injury news of Albies became known, giving him a chance to turn around his otherwise atrocious season so far. Merrifield has run with his opportunity, hitting .250 with a .707 OPS since joining the Braves, bringing up his bWAR on the season to 0.2.
These are 3 of the Braves' many injuries throughout this season without the mention of names such as Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II who each spent some time on the IL. The total difference in WAR brings their current projected record from 87.4 to a whopping 100.5 (assuming players play to their projected WAR).
Of all the teams for this to happen to, Atlanta is the team who could persevere through it the most thanks to their depth in both the pitching staff and at the plate. It is also important to note that the Braves took home a World Series in 2021 after winning only 88 games in the regular season (0.6 more than they are currently on pace for) and also without Ronald Acuña Jr.. With the Braves likely to make it into the postseason through the Wild Card, do not count them out even with their many injuries.