Coming into the final week of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves' playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. Just one week ago, the odds that the Braves would make the playoffs at all sat at a mere 40.9% according to Fangraphs. Certainly not out of it, but it was going to require playing very well over the final few games. Once the last two games of their series against the Mets were postponed, some truly nightmarish scenarios began to unfold.
Fortunately, like they have so many times before in recent years, the Braves stepped up when they had to. After securing their fifth straight win thanks to Travis d'Arnaud's walk-off homer against the Royals on Saturday, the Braves control their own destiny in the series finale against Kansas City on Sunday.
GAME d'ARNOVER.#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/8KFLZdoHqu
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 29, 2024
Braves have multiple paths to punching ticket to 2024 playoffs on Sunday
Here is the most important thing about Sunday: the Braves cannot be eliminated which is huge. It would obviously be ideal if Atlanta could avoid having to play that cursed doubleheader against New York on Monday, but that is the worst case scenario which takes a lot of the pressure off this particular game.
After Saturday's win combined with losses by both the Mets and Diamondbacks, the Braves currently occupy the second NL Wild Card spot with a one game cushion. This is important because Atlanta owns the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks and, for the moment, the Mets.
Given their tiebreakers, the Braves can secure a spot in the postseason if they beat the Royals on Sunday OR if the Diamondbacks lose to the Padres on Sunday. Charlie Morton is slated to be on the mound for the Braves against Kansas City's Alec Marsh in Atlanta's matchup while Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound to try and save their season against Martin Perez and San Diego. Both are afternoon games, so we will have clarity as to what the Braves need to do, if anything, by dinner time.
Now, if the Braves lose and the Diamondbacks win, things get dicier. An Arizona win combined with losses by both the Braves and Mets means that Atlanta would have to win one of the two games in the doubleheader to get in. If the Mets sweep them, the Braves' season would be over. If all three teams lose on Sunday, the Braves would be in, but the doubleheader would still have to be played as the Mets would get in with just a single win on Monday.
Strap in, Braves fans. Things are finally looking up for Atlanta, but the 2024 regular season isn't over until it is over.