No Deal
The Dodgers and Tigers agreed to the deal, and the Tigers believed Rodriguez would waive his no-trade. But when they contacted him to formalize his approval, he reversed course and exercised his no-trade clause, killing the deal According to Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic ($), while Rodriguez said family issues drove his decision, money would have changed his mind.
"… according to team sources briefed on the discussions, Rodriguez and Mato asked for financial and contractual enhancements for the pitcher to join the Dodgers…Mato declined comment when asked about one of the enhancements sources said he proposed — an additional year on Rodriguez’s contract at $20 million if he declined to opt out…"
His agent tried other avenues to organize the deal but time ran out. The injury limited Rodriguez to 152 ⅔ innings with a career-high 3.30 ERA and 1.153 WHIP. However, his K/9 rate and BB rates returned to something close to career norms.
What’s Not To Like?
When healthy, Rodriguez looks like what you’d expect of a mid-rotation starter but he’s had enough injuries to warrant a second look, and he’s 31, so those injuries don’t heal as quickly. I understand that he had to deal with family issues but completely breaking off contact with the club – even via his agent - is concerning. It’s none of our business what those issues were, but the club has a right to know when it can expect its player to return.
The no-trade clause gave Rodriguez the right to veto the trade, and after his 2022 absence, family issues are a strong reason for exercising it. Still, one wonders how an additional guaranteed year at $20M would make those issues easier to overcome. He doesn’t have to explain but it clouds the issue.
MLBTR projects Rodriguez to get four years and $82M, an AAV of $20.5M, while Bowden suggested five years and $90M, an AAV of $18M. I wouldn’t want to give him more than four years and $70M, a $17.5M AAV. I’m not opposed to incentives for starts and innings pitched to take it higher. If I’m handing out a five-year deal, I’d prefer Imanaga for five years at $85M; that’s the same $17.5M AAV for a pitcher with experience in big games, no significant injury history, and a reputation as a strike thrower.
That’s A Wrap
In his interviews after the 2023 deadline, Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos said that they tried to land a starting pitcher, but there were no deals they liked. He went on to say that a deal for a starter popped up with five minutes to go, but there wasn’t time to work out the details.
I believed then and still think that the pitcher they were offered was Eduardo Rodriguez. This is likely why Bowden and others think the Braves are a good fit.
The Braves are closer to his family home in Miami and would have moved him to a contender, making it less likely he’d opt out after the season. So, the speculation now makes sense but while he’s probably on their list of options, I doubt he’s at the top. If Anthopoulos was willing to make a deal at the deadline, he was also going to have to include one or more of the club’s better prospects.
If he was ready to do it then, he’s ready to do it now, so if you’re in love with an Atlanta Braves prospect, get your ice cream and tissues out and be prepared to say goodbye. I believe a trade for a controllable pitcher is more likely than a big signing. Dylan Cease is the pitcher who most closely fits that profile, but there are others. When it happens, we’ll let you know here at the House That Hank Built.