Dream Atlanta Braves rotation for the 2024 season
Even when the Atlanta Braves are down, are they ever really down? Despite a disappointing postseason with an early exit forced by the Phillies, the Braves' reputation as one of the most indomitable teams in MLB has barely taken a hit. Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson — these are household names. Many of the Braves' best players are locked down for years to come. Fans already have a lot they could ever want, but what if they could have even more? Enter: the 2024 dream rotation.
The dream 2024 Atlanta Braves rotation
The strength of the top of Braves rotation in real life is undeniable, and it's very likely they'll dominate in 2024 the same way they did in 2023, but nothing is perfect. Shuffle a few guys around, add a few hot free agents, and what do you get? One of the most unhittable rotations in baseball, probably. Here's what the Braves rotation might look like if money wasn't a consideration, and if all of the pitching free agents in this year's class only had eyes for the Braves.
Spencer Strider
The Braves are in an enviable position; their real life ace is not only better than most other teams' real life aces, he's better than a lot of their dream aces too. By the end of his career, Spencer Strider is going to need entire record books dedicated to him. This year, he broke John Smoltz's record for strikeouts in a single season by an Brave, and got tantalizingly close to being only the 20th pitcher in the modern era to strike out 300 batters in a season, finishing the year with 281, the most in MLB by a wide margin.
Everything was dialed up for Strider this year, in the not-so-good ways as well as the good; his ERA was up to 3.86 from 2.67 in 2022, and he gave up 60 more hits and 41 more earned runs. But he also pitched 50 more innings, his walk rate was down, and his K rate stayed about the same. He also stayed healthy for the entire season, which is remarkable given how many innings he pitched and how hard he throws (his 97.2 mph fastball velocity is in the 93rd percentile, according to Baseball Savant).
It feels impossible to say, but the best is yet to come for Strider. He's still young and has only put in two real years of work in the big leagues. If anyone's going to add their name to that 300 strikeouts list in the near future, it's going to be Spencer Strider.
Max Fried
Despite his seventh year in the major leagues being seriously hampered by multiple injuries, the 77 2/3 innings that Max Fried was able to turn in during the regular season looked as exceptional as they always have. With 80 strikeouts, his K rate was up to 9.27 from 8.26 every nine innings, his average exit velocity was improved from 2022, and he still managed to cobble together a positive fWAR despite his limited playing time.
Fried has struggled in postseasons past, and this year was no exception. With a blister on his left hand that landed him on the IL in late September, he was only able to make one appearance in the postseason against the Phillies in the NLDS. The Braves eventually won, but it went down as a no-decision for Fried, who gave up three of Philadelphia's four runs in the four innings his pitched. Still, no one can argue that Fried is an elite pitcher who, if he can get his injury issues sorted out, will get back to contributing to the Braves' juggernaut levels of success.
AJ Smith-Shawver
Out with the old, in with the new. Although the Braves picked up Charlie Morton's $20 million contract, despite Morton turning 40 this weekend, anything is possible with the dream rotation. We're going to pretend they didn't do that, or maybe they did but will be comfortable using Uncle Charlie in an extended relief role. In the dream rotation, No. 1 Braves prospect AJ Smith-Shawver will come up in a big way and join Spencer Strider and Max Fried in continuously reminding everyone of the virtues of developing in the Atlanta Braves organization.
Smith-Shawver was a seventh round pick in 2021, but he rocketed to the top of the Braves prospect rankings in less than a year and made his MLB debut only 13 months after starting in Single-A. With 25 1/3 innings pitched in the big leagues, he had 20 strikeouts and gave up 12 earned runs for an ERA of 4.26. It's not ideal, but this year's sample size is far from enough to make a call one way or the other. Strider and Fried are still young, but Smith-Shawver's regular presence on the mound for the Braves would show that Atlanta is still churning out top young talent at a ridiculous clip.
Sonny Gray
The first outsider in the Braves dream lineup is Sonny Gray, who made a fantastic case for himself as a top member of this year's free agent class throughout the 2023 season. In his first All-Star season, he pitched 184 innings for the Minnesota Twins, struck out 183 and only gave up 57 earned runs for a final ERA of 2.79, the best of Twins' starters by far. His postseason was little rockier, especially compared to Pablo Lopez's near-perfect showings, but Gray did well enough overall that the Athletic projects he'll make $64 million in a three year deal in his free agency.
Gray's arrival in Atlanta would relegate Bryce Elder to a bullpen position or being a trade piece; Elder did good work for the Braves this year but had a crummy postseason (to say the least), and Gray just has the edge in almost every category. If the Athletic's projection is anywhere near true, the Braves would also be able to get him relatively cheaply, because anything looks cheap in the shadow of Austin Riley's 10 year, $212 million contract, which still has nine years to go.
Jordan Montgomery
After his performances this postseason and one of the only lefty starters available in free agency this year, Jordan Montgomery has made himself something of a white whale this offseason. He would join lefty Max Fried to make the Braves' starting rotation formidably more balanced in that regard, and he would bring proven postseason excellence to a Braves pitching staff that's gotten beat up in the playoffs over the past few years.
His performance in the postseason will be the thing that carries him to one of the larger contracts of the offseason, but it's well-deserved. He pitched 31 innings, the second most of the Rangers' rotation and kept his ERA down to 2.90. He struck out far fewer batters than ace Nathan Eovaldi, but the fact that Montgomery pitches to weak contact could be a great thing to add to Atlanta's strike-throwing rotation and take him deep into games often.
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