Despite big-name acquisitions, Dodgers still playing catch-up with the Braves

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How Dodgers' moves have changed WS betting odds compared to Braves

The Los Angeles Dodgers moved to +550 favorites after they signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million, 10-year deal. The Braves were left at +650, second place. After the recent news that the Dodgers had traded for and extended Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers moved to +460 odds.

That means for every $100 you bet on the Dodgers to win the World Series, you would win $460 if they won. So, the Dodgers have entrenched themselves as the World Series favorites over the Braves with two splashy, big-named moves. Glasnow and Ohtani are big names and it causes a lot of buzz. However, the Dodgers haven't created any real separation between themselves and the Braves. If anything, they are still trying to get on the same level.

I am not just saying that because I'm a Braves fan... Although, I would do that.

Tyler Glasnow does not make the Dodgers better than the Braves on paper..

The Los Angeles Dodgers added Glasnow but lost Ryan Pepiot to the Rays. And of course, you know Glasnow will flame out and Pepiot will win the Cy Young this year because that's how the Rays work. Remember the Chris Archer trade? That deal netted the Rays Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz as a PTBNL. Then the Rays flipped Meadows before his career hit a brick wall. Now, Archer and Glasnow are united in LA with Archer now an assistant in the Dodger's baseball operations department.

Glasnow essentially gives the Dodgers a good top three. Clayton Kershaw is not currently with the Dodgers and reportedly wouldn't be able to return until around mid-season. However, recent comments have cast doubt on his desire to return at all. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are not a part of the equation in 2024 either.

That leaves the Dodgers with Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, and Bobby Miller at the top of their rotation. Tyler Glasnow has been made of glass, pitching just 72 innings per season since 2017. He has only exceeded 100 innings twice in his career. Last season was his career-high with 120 innings. He's really good but has never really been a workhorse.

He's good when he's healthy but it is difficult to look at his performance over just one season and get a good feel for what kind of pitcher he is. Almost every season on the back of his baseball card is a small sample size!

I have to concede that since 2019, he's been one of the best pitchers in the game when he's healthy. He has a 3.03 ERA over 60 starts. Among pitchers with a minimum of 200 innings pitched over the past three seasons (had to go low to get him qualified), Glasnow is second in K/9 behind Spencer Strider. Of the nine pitchers who had a K/9 greater than 11, Glasnow had the lowest walks per nine of all of them.

So, he's really good when he pitches. He strikes a lot of guys out...but not as many as Spencer Strider.

The rest of the pitching staff

Los Angeles Dodgers Photo Day / Christian Petersen/GettyImages

Next up we have Walker Buehler who isn't expected to pitch a full season in 2024. He is recovering from another major surgery and the Dodgers don't expect that they will get a full season from Buehler. They'll have to hope he can return to form, once he's back.

Bobby Miller came into the season as a highly touted prospect and lived up to the hype. He pitched 124.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA and struck out 8.6 per nine.

The Braves have a more reliable and possibly more talented top three. You can easily argue that Tyler Glasnow would be the third-best pitcher on the Braves if he joined. He's had some rough seasons mixed in with great seasons and we've never seen how he holds up throughout an entire season. Max Fried is a model of being consistently GREAT.

Spencer Strider could end up being the greatest strikeout pitcher we may ever see. And give me Charlie Morton as the third guy all day. The thing with the Dodgers is we don't know who will start the season as their third starter anyway. Buehler will likely be unable to go right away, so that makes Bobby Miller and his 124 career innings the number two option behind Glasnow.

The bottom of the rotation starts with Ryan Yarbrough. We know what he is at this point. He will give you innings but there isn't any upside beyond what he is. Bryce Elder may have been among the worst starting pitchers in the second half of last season, but he was among the best for about a year before that. He still has an upside and a chance to make an impact.

The Braves have quite a few options with potentially high ceilings to fill out at the end of their rotation. Don't forget Huascar Ynoa is making his glorious return in 2024. AJ Smith-Shawver has an arm that was blessed by a higher power. Hurston Waldrep is projected to make his debut in 2024, as well.

I don't see how you can give any sort of an edge to the Dodgers' rotation. Without any moves, the Braves must still be regarded as one of the best in the league.

Braves offense is still better than the Dodgers

Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Three / Norm Hall/GettyImages

Ohtani did not make the Dodgers a better offense. In fact, his Streamer projections have him doing about what J.D. Martinez did for the Dodgers at DH last year!

Everyone is talking about how scary the top three hitters for the Dodgers will be next season. Look at how scary the Braves top seven hitters are. You can put the Braves top three up against the Dodgers right now. Dodgers fans aren't going to want to go much further than that. The Braves have a deep lineup. They are bringing back most of the same group that entrenched themselves as one of the greatest offenses of all time in 2023.

The Dodgers have Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, Gavin Lux, and James Outman rounding out their projected lineup. The Dodgers have four guys projected to finish with an OPS of .799 or higher (Streamer projections). The Braves have seven projected to finish with a .799 OPS or higher.

If there is anything we learned from Shohei Ohtani's time with the Angels, it's that one or two great players in a lineup is not enough by themselves. The Braves have excellence up and down the lineup. There is no respite for opposing pitchers. Oh, and may the Lord have mercy on opposing pitchers if Jarred Kelenic figures it out this year.

If I am putting my money on anyone, the Braves are the easy choice. Check out my Atlanta Braves daily podcast if you need more Braves content in your life.

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