How Dodgers' moves have changed WS betting odds compared to Braves
The Los Angeles Dodgers moved to +550 favorites after they signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million, 10-year deal. The Braves were left at +650, second place. After the recent news that the Dodgers had traded for and extended Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers moved to +460 odds.
That means for every $100 you bet on the Dodgers to win the World Series, you would win $460 if they won. So, the Dodgers have entrenched themselves as the World Series favorites over the Braves with two splashy, big-named moves. Glasnow and Ohtani are big names and it causes a lot of buzz. However, the Dodgers haven't created any real separation between themselves and the Braves. If anything, they are still trying to get on the same level.
I am not just saying that because I'm a Braves fan... Although, I would do that.
Tyler Glasnow does not make the Dodgers better than the Braves on paper..
The Los Angeles Dodgers added Glasnow but lost Ryan Pepiot to the Rays. And of course, you know Glasnow will flame out and Pepiot will win the Cy Young this year because that's how the Rays work. Remember the Chris Archer trade? That deal netted the Rays Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz as a PTBNL. Then the Rays flipped Meadows before his career hit a brick wall. Now, Archer and Glasnow are united in LA with Archer now an assistant in the Dodger's baseball operations department.
Glasnow essentially gives the Dodgers a good top three. Clayton Kershaw is not currently with the Dodgers and reportedly wouldn't be able to return until around mid-season. However, recent comments have cast doubt on his desire to return at all. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are not a part of the equation in 2024 either.
That leaves the Dodgers with Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, and Bobby Miller at the top of their rotation. Tyler Glasnow has been made of glass, pitching just 72 innings per season since 2017. He has only exceeded 100 innings twice in his career. Last season was his career-high with 120 innings. He's really good but has never really been a workhorse.
He's good when he's healthy but it is difficult to look at his performance over just one season and get a good feel for what kind of pitcher he is. Almost every season on the back of his baseball card is a small sample size!
I have to concede that since 2019, he's been one of the best pitchers in the game when he's healthy. He has a 3.03 ERA over 60 starts. Among pitchers with a minimum of 200 innings pitched over the past three seasons (had to go low to get him qualified), Glasnow is second in K/9 behind Spencer Strider. Of the nine pitchers who had a K/9 greater than 11, Glasnow had the lowest walks per nine of all of them.
So, he's really good when he pitches. He strikes a lot of guys out...but not as many as Spencer Strider.
