Braves' Success Boosted by Orlando Arcia's Unexpected Production But It May Not Last
The Atlanta Braves expected Orlando Arcia to provide above-average defense and a league-average bat with occasional power. Few –if any -expected Arcia to lead all NL shortstops in BA and OPS+.
The Atlanta Braves lost their All-Star shortstop to free agency shortly after winning the 2022 season ended and opted to fill the vacancy from within.
Early Arcia
Early scouting reports spoke glowingly of his defense but worried about his aggressiveness at the plate. When Baseball America (subscription required) named him Milwaukee’s number one prospect heading into 2016, their rationale reflected those concerns but had high hopes for his future.
. . . He has the range, hands and arm strength teams seek in a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, with tremendous instincts and flair for making big plays at key times . . . he still is too aggressive at times for his own good and does not draw enough walks . . .When he does arrive at Miller Park, Arcia could be the first homegrown impact player developed by the Brewers since Ryan Braun . . .in 2007.
He delivered the scouts’ worst projection with the Brewers, struggling at the plate and allowing those struggles to affect his defense.
Atlanta Braves Search for Options
All Presidents of Baseball Operations and General Managers must juggle their today’s needs while planning for the next three-to-five years. Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos knew Dansby Swanson would likely depart in 2022 with no equivalent shortstops.
Arcia appeared excess to Milwaukee’s needs and offered potential Gold-Glove defense at a minimum. His early scouting reports mentioned something the Atlanta Braves value.
. . . Beyond his on-field performance, Arcia became a team leader while playing much of the season at age 20 . . . (he) has a confidence that is easy to see, maturity beyond his years and the instincts that only come naturally in being at the right place at the right time . . .
Those factors convinced Anthopoulos, and on April 6, the club sent Patrick Weigel and Chad Sobotka to Milwaukee in exchange for Arcia. He came with two years of control via arbitration, giving them ample time to see if those abilities and that mindset were still front and center in his makeup.
By the time the World Series ended, they had their answer, and on November 30, they extended Arcia for two years and $2.9M, but the euphoria surrounding the World Series meant few took note of the deal.
The Post-Swanson Era
Once Swanson hit free agency, the odds of a return became minute. Throughout the offseason, the team said that Grissom was learning from the maestro (Ron Washington), and they expected to get the job.
I was one of many who looked at his career and said more than once that was a mistake because Grissom wasn’t ready, and Arcia’s career indicated he couldn’t hit well enough to hold the job long-term.
Around the end of the year, the spin changed slightly to emphasizing Arcia’s chance to earn the job in Spring Training, and Brian Snitker started calling him “A Dude.”
I was half right; Arcia won the job, but an early injury gave Grissom a chance to take it, and he wasn’t ready. On the other hand, I was wrong about Arcia. He’s been superb since returning, and no one’s talked about replacing him lately.
Gawdy Numbers from Shortstop
As I’m writing this on the morning of June 9, 2023, Orlando Arcia is batting .326/.382/.486/.868 with a 132 OPS+. Among 20 shortstops with 150 PA, Arcia’s:
- .382 OBP is number one in MLB
- .326 BA is tied for first in MLB with Bo Bichette
- .486 SLG is third .001284 behind Wander Franco and first in the NL
- .132 OPS+ is third in MLB and first in the NL
- 1.0 rWAR is third
Fangraphs sees things slightly differently, ranking his 136 wRC+ and .379 wOBA first in MLB, but his 1.5 fWAR eighth in MLB and sixth in the NL. The difference is the way Fangraphs treats Arcia’s defense,
Fangraphs ranks Swanson as the best defender in baseball, with Arcia 11th in MLB and sixth in the NL.
Baseball Savant puts Arcia in a tie for ninth with three outs above average, but Fangraphs disagrees with Savant giving him only two. That confuses me since Baseball Savant is the source of the metric, but there’s nothing l can do about it.
Overall his numbers so far are great, and I hope he stays close to that for the rest of the season, but there are some indications he won’t.
Don’t Look Behind The Curtain
Arcia has only 157 PA, while others are well over 200, He’s walked 12 times, putting him on a pace for about 55 in 500 PA this year, but he’s never walked more than 43 times in 546 PA.
His K rate is a career-low 17.6% (excluding 2020), 2.6% below his career average. That drop is probably due to a career-low chase rate that’s down 9%. He’s also hitting groundballs 56.% of the time, which may not become a problem with the end of extreme shifts, but he’s making less contact in the zone and hitting fewer line drives, and those statistics aren’t the reason I wonder if it will last.
Arcia’s hitting at a career-high .378 BAbip against a career-average of .291. His only season with a BAbip over .292 was 2018, when he had only 366 PA. His batting average on contact is a surreal .405 against a career average of .318 (my BACON calculations from FG numbers.)
That’s a Wrap
Maybe this is the year everything clicks for Arcia, and he becomes That Guy. Maybe it’s his career year like the one Bill Mueller had in Boston in 2003 or Chris Johnson’s 2013 for Atlanta. If that happens. I’ll congratulate him and open the bottle of ghost-pepper salsa I keep around to help me eat crow
Whatever happens at the plate, I expect Arcia to continue his good work at shortstop and help the Atlanta Braves reach another postseason and World Series.