The 2024 season has been a constant slew of injuries for the Atlanta Braves, but they still find themselves in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. There is no doubt that Atlanta's postseason chances can be directly attributed to their stellar pitching staff.
While the Braves offense has sputtered for much of the season, the pitching staff has kept them afloat with their MLB leading 3.49 ERA. The rotation in particular has been a standout this season. Chris Sale looks to have wrapped up the NL Cy Young award, and Fried/Morton/Lopez all have been rock solid for most of the year.
However, the rotation as a whole really stabilized when rookie Spencer Schwellenbach made his debut. The former Cornhusker has locked down the fifth spot in the rotation and pitched some gems (including last night) since he debuted in late May.
#Braves' Schwellenbach: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR. Threw 59 strikes in 92 pitches. His ERA is 3.73 and he's allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 8 consecutive starts.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 14, 2024
All signs point toward Schwellenbach being a prominent piece of Atlanta's rotation for the long-term. Given his upside, should the Braves get out in front of a possible extension with Schwellenbach right now?
Spencer Schwellenbach needs to be the next Brave to receive an extension
The season numbers are impressive in themselves for Scwhellenbach. After last night's outing against the mighty Dodgers, Spencer lowered his season ERA to 3.73. He also boasts a 3.35 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 21.9 K-BB%, and 2.0 fWAR in just over 100 innings of work.
Then you look at the batted ball data and underlying numbers and get blown away. Schwellenbach ranks in the 98 percentile in chase%, 94th percentile in BB%, and 88th percentile in barrel% via Baseball Savant. He generates swing and miss, doesn't walk guys, limits hard contact, and has six different pitches he can lean on at any given time.
On top of that, last night was another instance in which Schwellenbach pitched some of his best baseball against one of the better teams in the league. It's everything you want to see in a young pitcher that you plan to keep around for the long haul.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Filthy 86mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/gUAJVjlAfI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 14, 2024
Alex Anthopoulos has already shown he'll reward a guy he has faith in long-term. Spencer Strider was signed to a six-year $75 million deal back in October of his rookie season. While Schwellenbach hasn't had quite the historic campaign Strider did in 2022, his rookie campaign hasn't been anything to sneeze at.
All of the things we previously mentioned are reason enough to try and get Schwellenbach locked up to a deal that will keep in Atlanta for years to come. Then you factor in Max Fried's free agency and Charlie Morton's presumed impending retirement, penciling in Schwellenbach into the rotation for a few more years becomes very appealing.
Ultimately, Alex Anthopoulos and his team have to weigh all of these factors when deciding if it's a smart move to invest in a player they love at a position that is known to be volatile from year to year.
We think Schwellenbach has proven he's worth investing in, the question is do the Braves?