Jim Bowden's trade suggestions for Braves are a bit underwhelming
Braves fans know the club needs another outfielder and a veteran starting pitcher. Atlanta wants an upgrade, not a sideways or backward step, and isn’t necessarily looking for a long-term solution; if a player with control is available, it’s a plus, not a requirement. They’d prefer a left-handed hitting outfielder, but a righty who doesn’t need a platoon partner works too.
The starter only needs to throw six innings in most starts and post a league-average ERA – currently 4.05 in the NL.
The Braves are limited by having one of the weakest farm systems in the league. Their best prospects are currently in the rotation or on the injured list, and two of the team’s best pitchers leave after this year, which will make it harder to pry a top prospect for Alex Anthopoulos’ hands. In 2021, Atlanta turned nothing into a World Series win, but such an event is almost impossible to repeat.
In the past, Atlanta has taken on big contracts rather than give up prospects, but this year, taking on a contract is about more than paying the salary. The Braves are a second-time CBT payor and, depending on your source, are either $3.6M (Fangraphs) or $8M (Spotrac) below the second CBT surcharge threshold.
Crossing the second threshold increases the combined monetary penalty from 42% to 75% and drops the club's first draft pick in 2025 ten places. Comp Balance picks don’t count, so a drop of ten spots in 2023 would have moved their pick from 24 to 46.
MLB trade targets for each contender, plus deadline priorities for all 30 teams and $1/month for 12 months deal for new subscribers at this link:
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) June 13, 2024
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In Thursday’s issue of The Athletic, former Reds and Nationals general manager Jim Bowden wrote about the needs of each team and potential targets to fill those needs. He selected three pitchers as potential Braves' targets including Erick Fedde, Paul Blackburn, and Trevor Williams. Two of those pitchers are currently injured.
Trevor Williams is a 32-year-old righty who had a 4.48 career ERA and 1.39 WHIP entering this season and led the league in home runs allowed in 2023. He was pitching to a 2.22 ERA for the Nationals when he went on the IL with a flexor tendon strain. If he were just reaching his prime, I’d have more faith in his sudden ERA improvement, but his early numbers are a mirage, and his flexor tendon strain makes him an automatic noncontender.
Paul Blackburn is a 30-year-old righty currently on the IL with a stress reaction in his right foot. He had a 4.90 career ERA and a 1.43 WHIP before 2024 but pitched to a 4.11 before injury. I believe his magical turnaround is related to the deadened baseball we’ve seen this year, and while anyone can sustain an injury, acquiring a pitcher whose foot injury is the result of landing on it - you know, like a pitcher does 150 times a game – is a bad idea.
Erick Fedde is the only one where I agree with Bowden. He had a horrible career ERA through 2022, but he went to Korea and changed how he pitches. He’s been very good for an awful team, pitching to a 3.15 ERA 81+ innings and a GB% just a smidge under 48%. He’s under team control through 2025 for $7.5M, so perhaps some creative accounting could reduce his 2024 hit on the Braves payroll, but I suspect the White Sox know they have a needed commodity and will price him that way.