Braves Playoff Odds: Brutal stumbles against the Phillies could cost Atlanta dearly

The Atlanta Braves' series against the Phillies really felt like one they should have won. They led the first game handily before they left Charlie Morton in the game too long, Max Fried gave seven solid innings in the third but the offense didn't show up, and then the Phillies walked the final game off in extras after multiple missed opportunities on offense late in the game. It was painful.

You have to give the Phillies some credit as their starters mostly pitched very well and the Braves couldn't do anything against their bullpen. However, some of those struggles was very clearly due to the patchwork lineup Atlanta has been forced to play these days. Regardless of the reason, instead of making up ground in the division and playoff races, the Braves' playoff chances are hanging by a thread again.

Braves Playoff Odds: Atlanta has no margin for error after brutal series loss to the Phillies

After losing three out of four to the Phillies, any hope of catching Philadelphia in the NL East is all but gone. The Phillies are now seven games up in the NL East with a month left in the season. Even if the Braves play well the rest of the way (and that is a huge "if"), the Phillies are extremely likely to be able to hold on which is why Fangraphs now has them with a 96% chance of winning the division. The Braves have just a 3.2% chance of continuing their streak of division titles and a 76.6% chance of making the playoffs at all.

Even if the Braves had won or split the series, winning the division was going to be a tall order. All of the injuries the Braves have suffered have taken a massive toll on the them and making up that ground with this Island of Misfit Toys roster wouldn't have been easy regardless of the outcome of this series. Where the series loss hurts the most, however, is in the wild card race.

As of September 2, the Braves have just a one game cushion over the Mets in the NL wild card race with New York playing well and being significantly healthier than the Braves. With the season series tied 5-5, the winner of the Braves' home series against the Mets on Sept. 24-26 will hold the tiebreaker which makes that series an appointment-level event barring the unforeseen. This thing is now almost certainly going to go down to the wire.

If there is a saving grace for the Braves, it is these next few series they have coming up. They get a much needed day off on Monday before series at Truist against the Rockies and Blue Jays and a makeup game against the Reds before they have to travel to Washington. After a day off, they come back home for a brutal series against the Dodgers.

If the Braves can come out of this stretch with a bit of a cushion in the wild card race, they should be in very decent shape in terms of getting to the postseason. The Mets have two series against the Phillies left and have to finish the season against the Braves and Brewers on the road. It sure would have been nice to come out of this Phillies series with more of a margin of error, though.

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