Braves' payroll mess means that an offseason roster shakeup should be coming

When the Atlanta Braves brought in Whit Merryfield and Gio Urshela to replace the injured Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, it pushed team CBT payroll to an estimated  $277,735,508, $735.508 over the second CBT surcharge threshold.

Seasons are what happens while teams are making plans. After making deadline deals that kept the team under the second tax threshold, injuries simply forced more moves.

Underperforming Braves players and injuries show spending money doesn’t win titles

Fangraphs estimates the 2025 payroll as $186.5M and the CBT payroll at $197,401,191, but that assumes the Braves buy out the options of Ozuna, Bummer, and Jackson.

Ozuna’s been the best batter on the team and the best DH in the league who isn't also a pitcher. Buying out his option to make Soler the DH makes no sense.

Aaron Bummer creates a lot of fan angst, but he’s exactly the player the Braves expected to get because he’s exactly the player he’s been since 2021. His traditional batting-against stat line looks worse because he’s being deviled by a .415 BAbip, something that’s reflected in the difference between his 3.47 and a 1.88 FIP that’s third among 178 qualified relievers. His 2.42 SIERA is eighth on that list, his 60% GB rate is 10th, and his 11.38 K/9 is 27th.

All of that means the Braves will pick up Bummer’s option. Adding Ozuna’s contract back into the mix takes the active payroll to $207.5M and the CBT Payroll to roughly $218M.

Players the Braves need to keep or extend

The Braves should offer Grant Holmes and Dylan Lee a contract worth $1M, and while Ramon Laureano is arb-eligible, so he may get more if he files, but a contract worth $1.25M could bring him back ’to the team where he’s regained much of his former success. Laureano’s a better fit for the fourth outfielder role, a better defender and hitter, and he’s shown he can hit for power, if he doesn’t DFA him and move on.

Based on his previous decisions, it’s a good bet that the Braves will offer Spencer Schwellenbach an extension, tacking on another $1M to the payroll.

Jarred Kelenic’s been a significant disappointment for the $20M it cost to bring him on board. The Braves had to have hoped that a new location and a team where he wasn’t expected to carry the load would allow Baseball’s number four prospect in 2021 to finally emerge. But 2024 saw exactly the same Kelenic as Seattle watched for the last three seasons.

Kelenic may creep over 1.0 fWAR by the end of the year, but Laureano’s in a virtual tie with him now and will likely end up ahead. Because of the way arbitration works, Kelenic will still get at least $2M and probably $2.25M. Those projections take us to $215M for 23 players, leaving the club $26M below the first CBT threshold before we consider the rest of the 40-man roster or any additions.

The Max Fried Decision

The Braves aren’t going to sign Max Fried for a few reasons. Over 99% of free agents who test free agency sign with new teams, and Fried is the Braves’ player rep. He’ll look for the biggest deal because that’s what the MLBPA wants players to do. Fried will command a deal close to Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal.

Fried’s older than Rodón, and while he’s had blister issues, his injury history isn’t nearly as checkered. He uses four pitches like an artist uses a brush while Rodón throws harder and hopes more often, so teams willing to overpay later for performance today will pay him and may go to seven years.

The AAV won’t bother the Braves as much as the length of the deal. It’s extremely rare that a long-term deal for a pitcher is worth the annual cost after four to five years. The club hasn’t given a deal that long to a pitcher, and they won’t change that for Max, so despite the young arms arriving, this season has shown they will need another pitcher either by signing a free agent or, more likely, trading for one.

Recreating the Braves Roster

Every season during ‘The Streak,’ the Braves changed 20%-25% of the roster. Today’s Atlanta Braves need to do that by clearing underperforming, injured, declining players from the roster, resolving to stop bringing back players who were really great years ago (thanks for your service, Adam, see you at Alumni Weekend), and stop trying to put a square peg into a round hole.

Luke Jackson is the polar opposite of Aaron Bummer. His 5.49 ERA (8.00 for the Braves) is worse than his 4.58 FIP (4.83 for the Braves), but 2021 was Luke’s career year. This season is who Luke Jackson is now. The Braves should pay him the $2M buyout and let him walk.

We now know that A.J. Minter’s hip injury is the reason he had a down year in 2024. Minter’s a free agent who’ll command a similar deal to the three-year, $26M deal of Joe Jimenez. Minter’s coming off serious hip surgery and is two years older than Jimenez. The Braves should let him walk.

Expect the Braves to nontender Huascar Ynoa. He’s been injured since 2022, has over three years of Major League service, and is arb-eligible for the second time next year. It doesn’t save a lot of money and he could choose free agency, but his injury history suggests letting him move on isn’t a bad idea, and it opens a 40-man roster slot.