When the Atlanta Braves brought in Whit Merryfield and Gio Urshela to replace the injured Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley, it pushed team CBT payroll to an estimated $277,735,508, $735.508 over the second CBT surcharge threshold.
Seasons are what happens while teams are making plans. After making deadline deals that kept the team under the second tax threshold, injuries simply forced more moves.
Underperforming Braves players and injuries show spending money doesn’t win titles
Fangraphs estimates the 2025 payroll as $186.5M and the CBT payroll at $197,401,191, but that assumes the Braves buy out the options of Ozuna, Bummer, and Jackson.
Ozuna’s been the best batter on the team and the best DH in the league who isn't also a pitcher. Buying out his option to make Soler the DH makes no sense.
Aaron Bummer creates a lot of fan angst, but he’s exactly the player the Braves expected to get because he’s exactly the player he’s been since 2021. His traditional batting-against stat line looks worse because he’s being deviled by a .415 BAbip, something that’s reflected in the difference between his 3.47 and a 1.88 FIP that’s third among 178 qualified relievers. His 2.42 SIERA is eighth on that list, his 60% GB rate is 10th, and his 11.38 K/9 is 27th.
All of that means the Braves will pick up Bummer’s option. Adding Ozuna’s contract back into the mix takes the active payroll to $207.5M and the CBT Payroll to roughly $218M.
Players the Braves need to keep or extend
The Braves should offer Grant Holmes and Dylan Lee a contract worth $1M, and while Ramon Laureano is arb-eligible, so he may get more if he files, but a contract worth $1.25M could bring him back ’to the team where he’s regained much of his former success. Laureano’s a better fit for the fourth outfielder role, a better defender and hitter, and he’s shown he can hit for power, if he doesn’t DFA him and move on.
Based on his previous decisions, it’s a good bet that the Braves will offer Spencer Schwellenbach an extension, tacking on another $1M to the payroll.
Jarred Kelenic’s been a significant disappointment for the $20M it cost to bring him on board. The Braves had to have hoped that a new location and a team where he wasn’t expected to carry the load would allow Baseball’s number four prospect in 2021 to finally emerge. But 2024 saw exactly the same Kelenic as Seattle watched for the last three seasons.
Kelenic may creep over 1.0 fWAR by the end of the year, but Laureano’s in a virtual tie with him now and will likely end up ahead. Because of the way arbitration works, Kelenic will still get at least $2M and probably $2.25M. Those projections take us to $215M for 23 players, leaving the club $26M below the first CBT threshold before we consider the rest of the 40-man roster or any additions.