Benchmarks to watch for as the Atlanta Braves offseason kicks into gear
The end of the World Series kickstarted the exciting part of the Atlanta Braves' offseason. Who stays, who goes, and how many new faces will wear the tomahawk next year?
Be Careful What You Ask For
Dexter Fowler turned down a $15,6M qualifying offer after 2015 and ended up returning to the Cubs for $6M and agreeing with, then backing out of a deal with the Orioles. He ended the year with a World Series ring but $9.6M less income.
Arizona left fielder Lourdes Gurriel had a clause in his contract with the Blue Jays preventing them from making a QO when the deal ended. Unlike Teoscar Hernández, Arizona’s left fielder hits the free agent market unencumbered by a QO.
…For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.
If You Want Him Say So
When MLB offices close on November 14, teams must all Rule 5 eligibles they want to protect to the 40-man roster or risk losing the player.
The Atlanta Braves have 16 players eligible for selection.
- AAA Pitchers Luis De Avila and Nolan Kingham
- AA Pitchers Daniel Martinez, Domingo Gonzalez, Trey Riley, Peyton Williams, Hayden Deal, and Tyler Owens
- AAA Outfielder Justin Dean
- AA outfielders Drew Campbell, Jesse Franklin, Cody Milligan, Brandon Parker, and Landon Stephens
- AA Infielders Cade Bunnell, and Beau Phillip, and
- AA catcher Javier Valdez
Since a claimed player must be added to the claiming team’s 40-man roster and kept there all year, the only one who may wear a new uniform next year is Riley.
The Atlanta Braves have 11 players in A-ball eligible as well, but those are more likely to go in the Minor League phase of the draft.
Love Me With A Tender
This year’s non-tender deadline is November 17. By close of business that day, we’ll know which arbitration-eligible players are looking for a new home. Players and teams don’t have to agree at this point. Absent a non-tender, teams want to keep the player and plan to offer a contract and, if necessary, go to arbitration.
If teams and players don't agree by January 12, the player files for arbitration, with hearings starting in February. The parties may continue to negotiate, but the Atlanta Braves are a file and trial team; holding out means going to a hearing and listening to everything you weren’t very good at last year.
Remember that the numbers announced in January rarely reflect the offers made and rejected during negotiations. Players tend to move closer to the team’s price to make it seem like the difference is so small the team should have agreed. Teams do the same thing, saying look, the difference is so small, the payer should have signed.
More Meetings
Baseball’s biggest offseason event, the Winter Meetings, starts in Nashville on December 3. It’s not unusual for teams to sign a big-name free agent and announce it at the meeting. In 2011, Arte Moreno flew to Dallas and opened his checkbook to pay a ridiculous sum to Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, and Jeffrey Loria went crazy signing players he’d trade a year later.
The free-agent market is pretty thin this year, so we’ll likely see an uptick in trades. Trades were once a feature of the Winter Meeting, but that’s slowed considerably in the last decade as teams became more reluctant to make early deals and hoped for leverage later in the postseason.
Lotteries and Drafts
The 2023 Winter Meetings conclude with the Rule 4 draft lottery on December 5 and the Rule 5 Draft on December 6. This is the second year of the draft lottery, which created more noise than usual around the Rule 4 Draft in July and shuffled the deck for the clubs in need of help.
It’s too early to know if it’s successful in its goal of preventing a team from tanking; it didn’t stop Oakland, but they’re a special case in pathetic ownership.
The Rule 5 draft marks the end of the meetings, and the end of the 2023 international signing period on December 15 is the last tick on the 2023 calendar. The new signing period starts on January 15.
That’s a Wrap
Atlanta Braves President of Baseball Ops Alex Anthopoulos keeps everything close to his vest, so It’s impossible to say what he’ll do with any certainty.
The Atlanta Braves need at least one starting pitcher, and the right-handed power bat that eluded AA at the deadline is likely on the agenda. He’ll want his pitching settled by the time Pitchers and catcher report on February 13, but we’ve seen him make moves throughout Spring Training in the past, so all I can guarantee is that on March 28, the Atlanta Braves will have a 28-man roster ready to open the season.