Atlanta Braves starting pitching search Ceases to exist

Why the Braves may stay away

To start. Scott Boras. The Braves do not usually go after Scott Boras' clients. The last client of his I believe the Braves signed was Dallas Keuchel and that was a unique situation. Outside of that, the relationship with Boras and the Braves has been nonexistent. Some could even point to the fact that the Braves traded one of Boras' clients, Shea Langeliers before he ever made it to the majors. However, that feels much more like a coincidence than anything of note.

The Braves have looked to find players to add to their core that they could lock up. The last two offseasons have seen the Braves trade for Matt Olson and Sean Murphy and immediately sign them to extensions. Boras clients do not normally sign extensions. They will usually go to free agency and go year to year in arbitration.

This means the Braves would probably only have Cease for two seasons. Sure, if you win a World Series with Cease during that time then all is well. However, the Braves have been cautious about moving their valuable prospects for someone for a short-term run. They prefer to only move their assets if they are getting an asset in return they can lock down.

Then there is the fact that starting pitching is always a wanted commodity and there will always be plenty of suitors for a young pitcher. The Baltimore Orioles could use a true front-line starter to go with their young core. The Arizona Diamondbacks just made a run to the World Series and would have benefited from one more starter.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the assets and questions in the rotation. LA has been rumored to be very interested in trading for Cease. The New York Mets could use a running mate to pair with Senga. The St Louis Cardinals just need a warm body every 5th day and Cease would provide that and much more.

There are just a few teams that could consider moving for Dylan Cease. I could name plenty more because any contender would be silly to not at least consider adding him to their clubhouse for 2024 and 2025.

This is why the Braves may stay away because a bidding war will be tough. The Braves farm system is thin. Of course, it is mostly a good thing because there are several players on the major league team that came up through the farm. It does make it tough to put together a trade, especially if it gets to the point of a full-on bidding war.

However, if they did join in, what would a deal for Cease look like?

What would it take for the Braves?

Now, we are going to say the Braves are interested. They want to make the move for Cease. White Sox General Manager Chris Getz has said that no player was untouchable this offseason and they might try to take a player and flip them into multiple players.

We see that the White Sox are willing to do that on a smaller deal that involves our Atlanta Braves. They moved Aaron Bummer for Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake, and Riley Gowens. It is a smaller deal because it was mostly the White Sox getting off of Bummer's contract and taking four guys who really did not have a spot in Atlanta and a minor-league player.

It makes sense for Chicago because if they can get anything from any of those four players, it is a net positive for the White Sox. Even if the Braves figure it out with Bummer as they did with Pierce Johnson after acquiring him at the trade deadline.

Maybe, just maybe, they would be more willing to do a deal like that for Dylan Cease. Teams have done this before with higher-profile trade candidates. The Cleveland Guardians traded Mike Clevinger for Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor, Austin Hedges, Gabriel Arias, and Joey Cantillo. The New York Yankees traded Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, Trevor Hauver, and Glen Otto.

Both of these moves, at least to me, were teams saying instead of trying to pry a team's top prospect or two, what if we tried to get more of the second tier or prospects and see if we get lucky? To be fair, oftentimes times when you trade an established major leaguer, the team rarely gets a home run package when reviewing the trade 3-5 years down the line. It happens, but most of the time a few of the names will never amount to much.

Cease is much more valuable of a player than Clevinger and Gallo but it does seem like the White Sox would consider this type of trade package unless a team comes in with a top-tier prospect. It seems like they are comfortable taking as much as they can get, throwing it against the wall, and seeing what sticks. This helps the Braves because they do not have a truly elite prospect.

If we go off of Baseball Trade Values, Cease has a surplus value of 44.80. It would probably need to include at least one major league-ready player, probably two. Three names jump to mind immediately that could be included. Bryce Elder has a value of 24.1, AJ Smith-Shawver sits at 21.8, and Vaughn Grissom has a value of 8.2.

I think at least two of those names would most likely need to be included in any package. I honestly think that Smith-Shawver is the most enticing (although Elder has more "value" according to the site). Elder has value but his ceiling is probably a 3-4 starter and his second half really left a sour taste in the mouth of scouting reports. Grissom has potentially a good major league bat but no defensive home. Even if we just assume he is a middle infielder, the White Sox acquired two middle infielders from the Braves this offseason already and they signed Paul DeJong.

Smith-Shawver and Elder do combine for a value of 45.9 to Cease's 44.8 meaning the value there matches up. I think the Braves would need to still add a third, maybe even a fourth piece to the deal. It could be a Spencer Schwellenbach, Drake Baldwin, or David McCabe type.

Maybe the White Sox do like Grissom and would like to do a larger collection of pieces. In that case, the Braves could offer one of Smith-Shawver or Elder, plus Grissom, then an Owen Murphy/JR Ritchie type, plus a few of the names mentioned above.

If the White Sox would do AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder plus a piece or two for Cease, I would be for it. It would hurt to lose AJ but Cease is a more established player. Maybe they do not want Elder and want the bigger package. So a random idea that will never happen could be something like Smith-Shawver, Grissom, J.R. Ritchie/Owen Murphy, David McCabe, and Jesse Franklin. Maybe sprinkle in another name there.

To finish up, I just want to say that I think it is very unlikely the Atlanta Braves trade for Dylan Cease. I have had fun writing it up because a rotation of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Cease, and *insert 5th starter here* would be nasty. The Braves would also corner the market on best mustaches in baseball.

It is but a dream though. A fun one but just a dream. I think if the Braves are to make a trade for a starting pitcher, the biggest top-of-the-line arm they could get would be Tyler Glasnow. I think it would probably be a starter that profiles more as a reliable number three.

(A team up in the Pacific Northwest could help with that)

I would like to be wrong and see Dylan Cease in a Braves uniform. I think it is very unlikely to happen and maybe my dream should cease to exist.

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