Atlanta Braves: So what is wrong with AJ Minter?
Things have not been going well lately for the Atlanta Braves. Between losing both Kyle Wright and Max Fried for a while to the offense's struggles the last few games, the vibes around the Braves are decidedly less exciting than they were earlier in the week. Funks are going to happen in small samples, but one of the more troubling trends that have extended past the last few games have been the struggles of AJ Minter.
Late last month, Trent put together a nice look at how the peripherals seemed to show that folks shouldn't be worried too much about AJ Minter and to be blunt, Trent was and is correct. There are a lot of things about Minter's pitch data and batted ball profiles that point to this stretch being the result of baseball being a cruel, fickly mistress.
However, that doesn't change the fact that AJ HAS been struggling and the results HAVE been decidedly not good. At the core of it, there are things that have not gone well and not all of them have been easy to explain. Here is an attempt to explain why one of the best relievers in the game has posted an ERA north of 8 into the middle of May.
He has been a bit unlucky
This isn't groundbreaking information here as Trent touched on this in his article as well, but it is worth repeating. Going into his appearance on Saturday against the Blue Jays (which also did not go well), the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was sitting at .370. Not only is that abnormally high in general, but that is roughly 70-90 points higher than we were accustomed to seeing out of him the last few years.
His BABIP isn't the only indicator that points to AJ getting a bit unlucky. A cursory look at his expected ERA (xERA) from his Statcast profile going into Saturday was 3.85 which is nearly half of what his actual ERA (7.50) sat at at the time. With decreases in the hard hit percentage against him combined with the average exit velocity against him (86.8 mph) staying the same, this points to some poor fortune in 2023. He isn't getting barreled more, the balls are just finding a lot more holes.
His groundball rate is at its lowest rate ever
One thing that hasn't helped AJ's cause has been a pretty significant drop-off in his groundball rate. Over the last three seasons, AJ's groundball rates have been 50%, 47.9%, and 39.6%. Aside from the fact that a deeper look into WHY his groundball rates have steadily decreased is probably needed, that brings us to this season where his groundball rate currently sits at 29.2% which is shockingly low for him.
This certainly hasn't helped his BABIP numbers as soft line drives are significantly more likely to be productive than groundballs. With a career high line drive percentage at 35.4% in 2023, that is a problem. It certainly isn't the only problem, but he really needs to put the ball on the ground more.
His expected stats are trending in the wrong direction
One thing that we have made sure to mention when talking about AJ is that a lot of his peripherals are, in general, good and that remains true. His whiff rate and chase rate are still elite and the expected stats against him still look pretty good. On the surface, he still profiles as a good to great reliever if you ignore the results.
However, they ARE worse than they were the last few seasons as his expected batting average against (.239), expected slugging against (.401), and expected WOBA (.307) are his worst marks in the categories since 2019 which is not great news. There isn't one pitch that has been the culprit, either, as his fastball, cutter, and changeup have all seen significant declines in their expected stats over last season's numbers. Some of that is explained by the aforementioned bad luck, but not all of it. Maybe he is tipping his pitches? Maybe the new pitch clock is taking its toll? Regardless of the cause, the symptoms are not ideal.
His fastball isn't putting guys away
While all of his pitches have seen declines, his most used weapon has arguably declined the most and that is his fastball. The average velocity of the pitch is down from 96.6 mph in 2022 to 95.7 mph in 2023 and the horizontal break on it is down an inch as well (although it is getting 0.5 inches more vertical movement over the average from last year).
The end result has been that guys are hitting .269 and slugging .462 off of his fastball in 2023. Last season, AJ's four-seam was his best pitch in terms of run value as it saved 12 runs in 2022. In 2023, it has been a net negative and profiles more similarly to when it was at it worst when it had a run value of 10 in the wrong direction back in 2019.