Atlanta Braves shattered records this season but failed to adjust in NLDS
The Atlanta Braves lineup set more records than any lineup in recent history, but their chance at a second World Series ended when hitters looked lost in the most important games of the year.
The Atlanta Braves lineup was relentless during the regular season, leading baseball in a long list of individual and team statistical categories. Everyone expected them to emerge from a knock-down-drag-out slugfest against the Phillies and move on to the LCS, except they didn’t.
Fans – myself included - tend to react as if umpires shouldn’t make mistakes; that’s a fallacy worthy of really good drugs. Home plate umpiring during the LDS didn’t hurt the Braves' chances of winning. Umpire scorecards say they weren’t.
Game 0ne: Brian O’Nora incorrectly called six pitches – three balls were true strikes, and three true strikes were called balls. These calls slightly favored the Braves but didn’t significantly favor either team.
Game two: Ben May incorrectly called 10 pitches – eight balls were called strikes, and two strikes were called balls. These calls slightly favored the Braves but didn’t significantly favor either team.
Game Three: Mark Carlson incorrectly called 10 of 169 called pitches – Six balls were called strikes, and six strikes were called balls. These calls slightly favored the Braves but didn’t significantly favor either team.
Game four: David Rackley incorrectly called five pitches – four balls were called strikes, and one strike was called a ball. These calls slightly favored the Braves but didn’t significantly favor either team.
Umpires as a group are very good at their job; their work didn’t affect the series' outcome.
What Happened?
After game one, Matt Gelb wrote a piece for The Athletic discussing the Phillies' bullpen use, pointing out that while the Braves slugged .512 on pitches up to 96 mph, that number dropped to .396 on pitches at or above 97 mph. Gelb didn’t break down the numbers further in his post but the Phillies undoubtedly did.
According to Statcast via Baseball Savant’s search function, at the top of the zone, the core of the Atlanta Braves lineup – Acuña Jr, Albies, Riley, Olson, Ozuna, and Rosario – batted .222/.228/.519. Removing Acuña from the mix drops the top-of-the-zone slash line to .171/.186/.390, so they mostly pounded the lower third of the zone by breaking balls off the plate.
Statcast also shows that keeping pitches in the middle to the outer third of the plate for that group lowers the slash line to .100/.097/.100 while dropping below the top third of the zone raises that slash line to .312/.309/.431.
The plan was clear: use their power arms early and stay at the top of the zone on the outer half until the Braves recognize and make adjustments.
Atlanta Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer recognized the Phillies plan, but the lineup failed to adjust. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Nothing Changes if Nothing’s Changed
Kevin Seitzer is one of the league’s best hitting coaches. Somewhere around the middle of game two, one of the Braves' middle-of-the-order bats struck out on a pitch around his eyes. The camera switched to the dugout in time to see Seitzer turn away, clearly upset at the swing.
I believe he and his assistants recognized what was happening and told the players to lay off those pitches until the pitcher proved he could consistently throw strikes at the top, but they didn’t make the adjustment.
Braves batters were only able to drive the ball when a Phillies pitcher was forced to move off the top of the one. Two such mistakes were made to Riley and he punished both of them.
Acuña just missed a slam on another but, in general, the Phillies pitchers pitched to their plan and it worked.
Epilogue
Phillies skipper Rob Thompson made the bold choice to use his power arms to challenge the Braves lineup with high heat at the top of the zone and said afterward that it could easily have blown up in his face.
It didn’t implode because none of his pitchers had an off-day and because Braves hitters didn’t force them to pitch down in the zone.
That’s a Wrap
It’s up to Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker and his staff to recognize and counter the opposing team's plans. I believe Seitzer recognized the plan during game one, but the batters didn't make the adjustment.
The Braves lineup is full of talented, intelligent baseball players who will eventually use the lessons from this loss to stop it from happening again. Knowing that doesn’t make it easier to take, but it should prevent it from happening again.
