Atlanta Braves Opening Day Roster Prediction version 1.0

Opening Day for the Atlanta Braves is less than three weeks away, so we need to start thinking about what this Braves roster is going to look like. The Braves are in the fortunate position of not having a lot of roster uncertainty going into 2023. Barring some sort of injury, most of the roster is set and the spots with some uncertainty either have some heavy favorites, will probably be some kind of a rotation, or are pretty low impact spots.

However, that doesn’t change the fact that there are some questions to answer before the team breaks camp. Below is our first crack at trying to predict who will be on the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2023. After another week or two, we post an updated look as these things are always fluid.

Catcher

Sean Murphy, Travis d'Arnaud

Pretty easy to project these two guys. The Braves spent a bunch of trade capital to bring Murphy into the fold as their catcher of the future and extended him shortly thereafter. With the running game being a focus with the new rules changes, Murphy should be a weapon there. d’Arnaud is a staple even if his time behind the plate will wane a bit with Murphy around, but TdA will also probably see plenty of time at DH this season as well.

First Base

Matt Olson

Again, nothing shocking here. Olson is going to be manning first base for the Braves for the foreseeable future and has looked quite good this spring at the plate. Even with a pretty horrific slump last season and his defense not being up to his usual high standards, he was still a three WAR player last year.

Second Base 

Ozzie Albies

There was a moment of concern earlier this spring when it was announced that Ozzie had offseason shoulder surgery, but all seems to be fine now. A healthy Ozzie was always a mortal lock to play second for the Braves. It is worth keeping an eye on the fact that his spring is not off to the best start at the plate, but that won't impact whether he starts at second.

Shortstop

Vaughn Grissom

I know there were rumblings that Orlando Arcia could have ended up being the Braves' shortstop in 2023, but that never made much sense to me unless Grissom was just atrocious defensively at short. He isn't a plus defender there, but he has looked good enough there to alleviate any doomsday scenarios.

Third Base

Austin Riley

When you have a potential MVP candidate that plays third base, you play him at third base. One thing is a little concerning is the left side of the infield's defense with both no shifts and swapping Vaughn Grissom for Dansby and having Austin over there, but hopefully Austin can make improvements coming in on grounders.

Starting Rotation

Max Fried

Spencer Strider

Charlie Morton

Kyle Wright*

Ian Anderson

Lets get the easy stuff out of the way first. Fried is probably going to contend for the Cy Young again, so he is a lock. Spencer Strider may actually have the most upside in the rotation and could turn into an absolute star, so he is obviously in. Charlie Morton's best days are behind him, but the Braves have invested significantly in him and he should be more than a serviceable middle of the rotation starter even at his age, so he isn't going anywhere.

You may notice that I put an asterisk by Kyle Wright's name and there is a reason for that. I don't think he will start the season on the injured list and will be likely be on the roster, but I don't think he will have enough time to be ready to start that first week. I'll take the Braves at their word that he hasn't had any setbacks from getting a cortisone shot in his shoulder, but the clock is ticking and he still hasn't pitched in any spring training games. That means they may have to hedge a bit with their roster construction and they do have some options available to them if he isn't ready (this will inform my bullpen projections below).

Finally, we have the open competition for the fifth spot in the rotation and I give the slight edge to Ian right now, but my confidence in that pick is low. Bryce Elder has his warts, but I could see the Braves going that route if Ian struggles and Elder pitches well the last couple weeks of camp. Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd should get some consideration as well as both have looked good in camp, but I'm giving the edge to Ian for now. I wish I could project Michael Soroka here, but he has yet to play in a spring game as he recovers from a hamstring injury, so we will have to wait to see him again.

Bullpen

Raisel Iglesias

AJ Minter

Joe Jimenez

Kirby Yates

Lucas Luetge

Collin McHugh

Nick Anderson

Dylan Dodd*

Okay, this is going to take some explaining, so lets start with the easy stuff. Raisel Iglesias and AJ Minter are mortal locks as they are the anchors of the bullpen. Joe Jimenez was brought in to bolster the late innings, so he is in. Kirby Yates doesn't look quite like the guy he once was, but he has looked pretty good and the Braves owe him real money, so put him in there. Lucas Luetge gives the Braves another lefty even if the stuff doesn't jump off the page and he is out of minor league options, so he is in. Collin McHugh was a staple in the Braves bullpen last year and while he hasn't appeared in a spring training game as of this writing, unless we find out about an injury, he is a lock.

Of the Braves' offseason acquisitions, Nick Anderson may be the most interesting with his track record of success and his ability to miss bats. I'm going to wager that the Braves like what they see enough to keep him around even though they could use another lefty like Dylan Lee (more on that in a second). Anderson does have two minor league options, so that is a consideration here, but I think he ends up making the Opening Day bullpen.

That brings us to the obvious outlier pick here. Putting Dylan Dodd in the bullpen is a bit of a misnomer and a hedge at the same time. Above I was very skeptical that Wright would be ready to start the season just based on the information we have. Given that, having Dodd on the roster gives the Braves the option of spot starting him the first week of the season. Dodd also gives the Braves a lefty option that can pitch multiple innings out of the bullpen which could be very useful early in the season as the rest of the starters may not be quite ready to throw a ton of pitches to start the season. This is a very speculative pick, but Dodd has looked really good this spring and his versatility as a spot starter/long man makes a lot of sense here.

All of that said, I full expect Dylan Lee to be in the Braves' plans in 2023, but he has minor league options so rotating him into the bullpen after the Braves' early season needs change seems very possible. As for Jesse Chavez, I want to project him for the Opening Day roster badly, but he has not looked good this spring. I really like the idea that Mark Bowman floated in his roster projections of putting Chavez on a set throwing schedule in Gwinnett for the first half to keep him as fresh as they can and then revisit him in the second half if needed.