Atlanta Braves: Introducing Atlanta's latest promoted top prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver
As Eric reported earlier, the Atlanta Braves shocked everyone this afternoon when they selected the contract of AJ Smith-Shawver, who threw only 12 innings in AAA after his promotion less than two weeks ago.
Most Atlanta Braves fans expected lefty Lucas Luetge would either go back on the IL or be designated for assignment after a series of rough outings. Luetge’s obvious replacement was fellow lefty Danny Young, but instead of the usual suspects, Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos decided on Smith-Shawver.
After Smith-Shaver’s promotion, I wrote that the Braves might give Allan Winans a shot since he’s older, more experienced, and has pitched well for the Stripers this year. But the Braves needed something Winans and Tanner Gordon don’t possess, a fastball that averages 95 and has touched 98.
Who is AJ Smith-Shawver?
The Braves selected AJ in the seventh round of the 2021 Rule 4 Amateur Draft out of Colleyville Heritage HS (Colleyville, TX). Here’s how I described him when the Braves selected him on day two of the draft.
. . . a 6’-3 205 pound righty out of Heritage High School in Colleyville, Texas, ranked number 321 nationwide and number 25 in Texas by Baseball America.
Smith-Shawver is a wanted man; recruited by NCAA Division I schools as a three-star quarterback and a two-way player between the foul lines where Texas Tech suggested he could play third base as well as pitch. However, his future in baseball appears to lie on that raised bump between home plate and second base.
The Braves told AJ they wanted him as a pitcher and coaxed him to sign for $997,500. After signing, AJ made four. two-inning starts for the FCL Braves( Rookie League/)
He pitched for Augusta in 2022, making 17 starts and throwing 68 1/3 innings at a 5.11 ERA. The Braves ignored the ERA and Moved him to High A Rome to start 2023; it was a short visit.
Moving On Up - Double Time
After three starts for Rome totaling 14 innings Smith-Shawver had faced 52 batters, given up six (yes 6) hits, struck out 23, and walked four without allowing a run, and at the end of April, the Braves gave him a ticket to Pearl.
Smith-Shawver’s stay with the M-Braves lasted long enough for him to make two starts, throw seven innings, face 29 batters, strike out nine, and walk three without giving up a run, and the Braves gave him a ticket to Gwinnett. It’s a tiny sample size, but I’m sensing a trend.
AJ made two starts for the Stripers, throwing 12 innings, facing 47 batters, striking out 12, and walking five while pitching to a 3.00 ERA. 1.083 WHIP. AAA uses a different baseball and has better players, so it wasn’t a surprise when his 0.00 ERA ended, but I doubt anyone predicted today’s move, and if you did, buy a lottery ticket now.
Scouting Report
MLB Pipeline ranked Smith-Shaver the Braves number four prospect to start the year. Baseball America liked him better than Pipeline, making him the Atlanta Braves number-one prospect. Here’s how BA described him at that time (subscription required.)
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70 Slider: 70 Changeup: 45 Control: 50
…a powerful and athletic righthander (with) legitimate frontline starter stuff. . . It all starts with his four-seam fastball, a beast … that averaged nearly 95 mph and peaked at 98 …(with) excellent life, with 20 inches of induced vertical break and both cutting and running action . . . He’s still developing his command . . . but when he’s hitting the zone, it can be overpowering. . . . (his) slider has the potential to be a wipeout offering. It’s an upper-80s pitch with short and hard biting action that disappears at the bottom of the strike zone . . .(he) throws a changeup in the same velocity range that . . . flashes solid fading life, but he has below-average feel for it. . .
The biggest issue facing Smith-Shawver is keeping his body in synch. BA calls his arm speed electric, but he faces the same dilemma as most pitchers with long levers and a cross-fire delivery, repeating his mechanics. As a result, he can lose the zone and walk batters or be wild over the plate.
What to Expect from Smith-Shawver
I expect the Atlanta Braves to use Smith-Shawver out of the bullpen unless an emergency start is required. In case you weren’t counting, he’s thrown only 110 innings since the Braves signed him. He's not stretched enough to throw 120 Major League innings this year, and the Braves will do nothing to risk injuring his arm.
As a reliever, he can rely on his fastball/slider combination and work on his third and fourth pitches – he has a big curve that could be a huge weapon if controlled - during side sessions.
Joining the Braves and sitting in the bullpen allows him to learn from Raisel Iglesias, A J Minter, Collin McHugh, and Jesse Chavez and spend time with Spencer Strider. Iglesias has a big arm and similar delivery, and Strider learned a great deal about simplifying his delivery while recovering from UCL replacement surgery.
That’s a Wrap
I didn’t expect the Atlanta Braves to dip this deeply into their system so early in the year, and I suspect they’d have preferred a different option because there’s a considerable risk that comes with early promotions such as this. There’s little doubt Smith-Shawver has middle-to-top-of-the-rotation potential, the challenge is to keep grooming him for that role without setting him back.
The bullpen needed a kick in the . . . shot in the arm. Smith-Shaver’s arrival tells them the Braves are doing what it takes to win, regardless of the contract involved.