Atlanta Braves guide to the 2023 Winter Meetings

The Atlanta Braves are preparing for the Winter Meetings to begin Sunday, December 3 in Nashville. Braves fans are clamoring for information on what AA and the team have planned. We cover quite a bit in this article. We explain what the Winter Meetings are, compare the Braves payrolls from 2023 to 2024, how far they are from the competitive balance tax, Terry McGuirk's comments on increasing the payroll, and what we should expect from the Braves during the meetings.

When and where are the Winter Meetings in 2023?

Major League Baseball will begin the Winter Meetings on Sunday, December 3rd at the Gaylord Opryland Resort in Nashville, TN.

What are the Winter Meetings?

Despite the constant flow of texts, emails, and phone calls, you can't replace the ability to close a deal in a face-to-face scenario. MLB's Winter Metings put hundreds of baseball's top executives, player reps, and journalists together at a hotel for three days to help push business along. Trades are made and free-agent deals are discussed in person. Even when a deal isn't made final, the seeds can be planted at the Winter Meetings.

The Winter Meetings also host the MLB Draft Lottery, where the 2024 MLB Draft order will be determined. The Rule 5 Draft will take place, as well as the Hall of Fame contemporary committee announcement.

What was the Braves Opening Day payroll in 2023?

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2023 season with a payroll of $203 million. The AAV (average annual value) of 2023 Opening Day contracts was estimated to be around $240 million.

How the competitive balance tax threshold works

The competitive balance tax is also sometimes referred to as the luxury tax. If a team's total AAV payroll exceeds the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold for that season, they must pay a 20% surcharge on the amount over the CBT.

For example, in 2023 the CBT was set at $233 million and the Braves finished the season with an AAV payroll of around $250 million. That means they paid a 20% tax on the difference between $250 million and $233 million.

$250,000,000 - $233,000,000 = $17,000,000

$17,000,000 x 0.2 = $3,400,000 tax in 2023.

So, the CBT wasn't a terrifying penalty. It was about the price of one year of Nicky Lopez, who earned $3.7 million in 2023.

Part 2: If a team exceeds the CBT for a second consecutive year then the penalty increases to 30%. Once a team hits three consecutive seasons exceeding the threshold, the penalty increases to 50%.

First Year: 20%
Two Consecutive Years: 30%
Three Consecutive Years+: 50%

So... if the Braves exceed the CBT in 2024, they will be paying a 30% surcharge on each dollar they spend over the CBT threshold of $237 million. 2023 was the first season in franchise history the club exceeded the CBT.

Part 3: Here's another catch with the CBT! If you exceed the threshold by $20 million there is an additional surcharge. In fact, there are three levels of increased surcharges that are activated in $20 million increments.

$20 million - $40 million: 12% additional surcharge
$40 million - $60 million: 42.5% additional surcharge in the first year. 45% for each consecutive year.
$60 million+: 60% surcharge

Teams that exceed the threshold by $40 million or more move back 10 places in the subsequent Rule 4 Draft. If the pick is in the top six, then they get to keep that one, and the number two pick gets moved back 10 spots. Easy enough, right?

Next: What is the Braves 2024 payroll entering the winter meetings?

What is the Braves 2024 payroll entering the Winter Meetings?

Here is a breakdown of the Braves projected AAV payroll as of 12/02/2023, per Spotrac.

Estimated Active AAV Payroll: $184,841,667
Estimated Player Benefits: $17,000,000
Estimated Minor League Contracts: $2,250,000
Estimated Pre-Arb Bonus Pool: $1,666,666
Active Subtotal............................................................$205,758,333

Now we have to add in the estimated projected arbitration salaries. Arbitration hearings are held between 01/29/24-02/16/24.

Estimated Arbitration AAV Payroll: $28,900,000
Estimated Pre-Arb AAV Payroll: $3,080,000
Arbitration Subtotal.....................................................$31,980,000

Total AAV Payroll........................................................ $237,738,333

What is the MLB competitive balance tax threshold in 2024?

Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the CBT increases every season during the CBA.

2022: $230 million
2023: $233 million

2024: $237 million

2025: $241 million
2026: $244 million

What dictates how much more money the Braves can spend this offseason?

This is the question everyone is asking.

Taking what we know from the previous two sections, the Braves are already projected to be a hair over the competitive balance threshold as they prepare for the Winter Meetings. Remember, the CBT is assessed at the end of the season, so with mid-season acquisitions, the Braves will likely be comfortably over the luxury tax in 2024 by the season's end. Last year, they started at $240 million and ended at around $250 million.

The Braves projected AAV payroll is already $783,333 over the threshold and they only have 33 players on the 40-man roster.

Last year's tax threshold was set at $233 million and the Braves entered the season about $7 million over it. Alex Anthopoulos and Chairman Terry McGuirk have both indicated that the Braves will increase payroll in 2024. Remember, the second level of the tax threshold? The Braves left plenty of room last season, beginning the year about $13 million under and finishing about $3 million under it. The Braves' increase in payroll in 2024 should be moderate, commensurate with the competitive balance tax threshold increase, which increased from $233 million to $237 million.

The tier two limit is $20 million over the CBT threshold of $237 million. That means we can assume the Braves won't exceed the $257 million mark in AAV payrolls. We probably want to allow $5-10 million in cushion for mid-season acquisitions. That means the Braves have about $10 million in average annual value to spend on seven roster spots.

So, don't expect Shohei Ohtani unless the Braves are willing to dive into the deep end of the luxury tax water. Again, I don't think anything like that is going to happen. I expect the Braves to stay comfortably under the second threshold of $257 million to allow for mid-season deals or potential increases at the deadline.

Next: Terry McGuirk's comments on increasing the payroll in 2024

What sort of deals should we expect to see the Braves make this winter?

A big addition might require a large subtraction

I'm not entirely sure the Braves can make a splashy signing without moving some more salary. Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna are the top candidates to be moved should the Braves need to free up some budget space. Each player is worth a $16 million hit against the competitive balance payroll.

Clearing those players off would reduce the AAV payroll to $205 million, or $45 million short of the second threshold. Now, that is one way to gain the flexibility they need to make a big splash. That number does not include the salaries of any players they receive in return for the trade. If the Braves were comfortable going $10 million over the threshold, this would give AA a lot of wiggle room to make a big move this season.

The Braves already signed reliever Reynaldo Lopez and announced they would be stretching him out as a potential starter. A sign of things to come?

Braves in-house options

Bryce Elder was one of the best pitchers in the first half of the season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in the second half. His overall performance over the past year and a half has likely earned him a shot to stick around in the back of the rotation. Between AJ Smith-Shawver, Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa, and Reynaldo Lopez, Alex Anthopoulos might not be thinking like fans are right now when it comes to big-name free agents.

Forget everything you've heard and remember what you've seen

The Braves have been rumored to be in on trade talks with Dylan Cease, but that might not be the best long-term solution for the team. Also, when was the last time you heard rumors of an Alex Anthopoulos trade that happened? Conversely, how many AA-led trades hit the headlines without you ever hearing a prior whisper?

Braves' needs other than starting pitching

Utility IF/Shortstop: Orlando Arcia is serviceable at shortstop but the team needs at least a backup. A utility infielder at a low price is going to be important after the Braves parted ways with Luke Williams, Nicky Lopez, and Braden Shewmake. Here are three former Braves who fit that description. The Braves should have their eyes peeled for the right opportunity to upgrade at shortstop. Arcia has a career OPS+ of 79. As good as it felt like he was last year, he posted a 98 OPS+, meaning he was two percentage points below the league average (after adjustments).

Left Field: The Braves declined Eddie Rosario's $9 million option. It may not have been because they were planning a big upgrade. Judging by the budget, it might have been because they needed to save money to ensure they stayed under the second luxury tax while they addressed other needs. There have been rumors they plan to try Vaughn Grissom in left field, and that doesn't sound like a bad idea. There are some potentially low-priced options like Hunter Renfroe or Tommy Pham. It will be interesting to keep an eye on left field to see if the Braves plan to roll with Vaughn Grissom and his .921 OPS from Triple-A last season.

Cautiously, I'm expecting the Braves to sign some league-minimum-type players to fill out the final spots of the 40-man roster and mix in a few veterans looking to prove themselves. Guys like Jack Flaherty come to mind. You can read about other players who fit this mold here: 3 free agents outside of MLBTR's top 50 that could be a fit for the Braves.

If Ozuna, Iglesias, or both get moved, then it should be followed by a much more exciting acquisition to discuss.

Conclusion

The Braves have a long-term need at starting pitcher with Max Fried and Charlie Morton likely to depart after next season. With the limited payroll flexibility and a strapped farm system, AA is going to have to get creative to fill the long-term needs of the club. Let's sit back and watch the master at work. I wouldn't be surprised to see a series of very minor moves due to the current payroll and the quality of the existing roster construction. I would also not be surprised to see some payroll clearing trades and big acquisitions in succession.

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