The Atlanta Braves’ promotion of AJ Smith-Shawver is the latest in a series of prospect promotions designed to make the club a perennial title challenger. But every action has a reaction, and we’re seeing it now.
Last Sunday’s Atlanta Braves game highlighted the issues GM Alex Anthopoulos faces as he tries to supply the talent needed to maintain their championship challenge.
Timeline to Trouble
When the Braves made their unexpected run at a division title in 2018, 10 pitchers and one outfielder were part of the team’s success. One of the pitchers was later part of the Kevin Gausman trade.
In 2019, the Braves saw two pitchers and a third baseman make their debut and used five pitching prospects to acquire bullpen help.
The 2020 tournament saw the arrival of three pitching prospects, a catcher and a highly routed outfielder, as the Braves reached game 7 of the NLCS.
In 2021 Alex Anthopoulos brought back Marcell Ozuna as DH on a multi-year and added depth traded for Orlando Arcia, but nothing went as planned.
Then he acquired three lottery ticket outfielders after the All-Star Break, called up a hard-throwing right-hander drafter 14 months earlier, and hit the jackpot as they led the club to a World Series championship.
Atlanta Braves' Depth Vanishes
When the Braves opened the 2022 season, 10 pitchers and an outfield prospect who debuted from 2018 through 2021 were gone. It’s not unusual for prospects to move on, teams try to fill those vacancies with Minor League free agents and newly drafted prospects, but the drafts fell short of filling the need.
The only prospects remaining from 2016 and 2017 were Anderson, Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok, and Tucker Davidson. No highly ranked prospects emerged from the 2018 selections, and Shea Langeliers was now in Oakland, leaving Braden Shewmake and Michael Harris II as the ranking players from 2019,
The shortened 2020 draft placed Shuster, Smith- Shawver, and JR Ritchie in the mix, along with 2021 selectees Cal Conley and Dylan Dodd. Davidson, Sean Newcomb, and Drew Waters left via trade, and we know what happened with Harris and Grissom.
If clearing the minors of highly-ranked, near Major-League-ready prospects is the action, what’s the reaction?
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider made his MLB debut 15 months after his selection in the 2020 draft. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Braves Missing a Starter
GM Alex Anthopoulos knew teams will use seven to ten starters in a season. His projected rotation featuring two pitchers receiving Cy Young votes, Fried and Strider, 21-game winner Kyle Wright, and one of the game’s most respected veteran starters, Charlie Morton, looked strong, but he wanted to add a veteran starter. Adding a veteran made depending on a trio of relatively inexperienced candidates for depth less worrisome.
The Braves had payroll space, but Anthopoulos didn’t find anyone in the thin free-agent pitching who would agree to the combination of money and years the Braves were offering.
It wasn’t a case of penny-pinching by ownership. The Braves are currently projected to exceed the first luxury tax threshold this year. According to Fangraphs, the Braves have a current taxable payroll of $244,369,328, while COTS calculates the payroll at $242,219,167, good for fifth in the NL and seventh in baseball.
Let’s Make a Deal
Trading from Major-League-ready pitching depth to add a pitcher makes little sense unless the pitcher comes with long-term control. The success of the early promotions of Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom means they are virtually off simply because the Braves don’t have a lot of position player depth.
According to MLBPipeline, the Atlanta Braves have six 50-grade prospects; if you want to trade for a difference-making pitcher, you need to trade a couple of them.
That’s a Wrap
On a happier note, the Atlanta Braves are in the enviable position of having five players in their everyday lineup, and starter Spencer Strider signed or under team option through 2027. Three other players are under control arbitration control through 2026, and two more are under arbitration control through 2028.
Assuming Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos didn’t use all of his pixie dust in 2021, his next magic trick is finding starting pitching before the rookies’ arms fall off and the bullpen collapses under the workload.
