Atlanta Braves: 3 Reasons Jesse Chavez should be an All-Star and 2 why he shouldn't
At 39 years old and in his fourth stint with the Atlanta Braves, Jesse Chavez is pitching like an All-Star, but what does "pitching like an All-Star" look like for a reliever with one save? Will an injury derail his chance of making his first-ever Midsummer Classic?
We're going to look at three reasons why Chavez should make the All-Star team and two reasons why he shouldn't. But to determine whether he's deserving, we need to look at the relievers who have represented their team at the All-Star game over the last ten years.
Non-closing relievers in the All-Star Game since 2013
There are two categories I want to separate these relievers: absolutely dominant and "there was no one else good enough on the team and the rules say each team has to have an All-Star."
Of course, the Braves will have several All-Stars in 2023, with Sean Murphy and Ronald Acuña Jr. near locks, and with Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, Orlando Arica, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson as potential options. The performance of these relievers shouldn't be used as reasons why Chavez should be selected to his first Midsummer Classic, but it's interesting to see how well they performed to get the nod in the first place.
Lone All-Stars
Pat Neshek, Phillies, 2017: Neshek was outstanding with the Phillies. Before being traded to the Rockies midseason, Neshek had a 1.12 ERA in 40.1 innings. His FIP was slightly higher at 1.94. Even though Hector Neris was the closer, Neshek was deserving of the nod, despite being the sole member.
Joe Jimenez, Tigers, 2018: Hey, we know this guy! At the All-Star break, Jimenez had a 2.72 ERA and a 2.51 FIP in 43 innings. This is worse than this year's performance by Chavez, but this Tigers team didn't have many deserving options outside of Jimenez. I'm not sure why Shane Greene (4.05 ERA and 4.19 FIP) was the team's closer.
Joe Mantiply, Diamondbacks, 2022: Mantiply had a 2.21 ERA and a 2.51 FIP. Mark Melancon was the team's closer and was not very good, but there were plenty of other options on this team who were completely acceptable All-Stars (Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, and Christian Walker).
Non-closing relievers on good teams who made the All-Star Game
I'll be honest, when I started doing the research for this article, I didn't think Jesse had a chance of making his first All-Star game. Not because I didn't think he deserved it, but because I thought it was nearly impossible for a non-closing reliever to get selected if they were on a team with other All-Stars.
I was wrong.
The list above is every single non-closing reliever who was their team's sole representative at the All-Star Game. Three players.
Every other reliever who made was selected to represent their team at the Midsummer Classic depsite not racking up saves did so along side other teammates.
Some, like Mark Melancon in 2013 and Chris Devenski in 2017 had five teammates who were also selected. Multiple other players, like Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis (on the same team in the same year!) had four teammates selected.
Melancon was far more dominant than Chavez, as he had a 0.81 ERA and a 1.60 ERA, but Devenski had a 2.73 ERA and 2.45 FIP, which, as we'll get to in a minute, is very similar to Jesse Chavez's performance. Melancon had two saves while Devenski had three.
I won't bore you with the the entire list of 20+ players (here's the rough list, because some pitchers become closers midseason, it's not entirely accurate), but I have a few takeaways.
1. This is still happening. In the last 10 years, There was only one year where multiple non-closing relievers weren't selected as All-Stars (2019). in 2022, there were five, and three were on teams with multiple selections.
2. Placement on the ERA and fWAR leaderboards is a factor, but not the determining factor. Last season, A.J. Minter had a 1.89 ERA and 1.5 fWAR (5th-best in baseball) and was not selected as an All-Star. However, the ERA of the pitcher mattered. Pitchers with sub 2.00 ERAs were far more likely to be selected, especially if they had teammates in the All-Star game.
3. Sometimes, the selections don't make sense. In 2021, Taylor Rogers had a 3.35 ERA (2.32 FIP) at the break and wasn't the only representative on his team. Meanwhile, the Yankees' Jonathan Loaisiga had more innings and a 2.11 ERA (slightly worse 2.60 FIP), but was skipped.
So, what does this have to do with Jesse Chavez? It shows how the Commissioner's Office and the players, the people who select the pitchers, have voted in the past, and their methods aren't likely to change that much. With that, lets take a look at the case for and against making Jesse Chavez an All-Star.
Three reasons Jesse Chavez should be an All-Star
1. He's the 2nd-best non-closer in baseball (by ERA)
If the Commissioner's Office and the players are looking solely at ERA when deciding on which relievers they want in Seattle this July, Jesse has a strong case. Among all NL relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, Jesse Chavez has the 3rd best ERA. Only Daniel Bard and Josh Hader have a better ERA.
2. He's backing it up with a career year
Chavez hasn't been getting super lucky either. While his 2.48 FIP is nearly a run higher, it's still the 6th-best among NL relievers (closers and non-closers). His K% is in the 90th percentile among all pitchers. This is despite throwing a fastball in the 7th percentile in velocity and 34th percentile in spin. He just gets outs.
3. It would be his first All-Star game
Jesse won't be the oldest first-time All-Star ever — Tim Wakefield was 42 when he was selected to his first one in 2009 and Satchel Paige was 47 — But he would be among the oldest.
And, unlike some other players, who simply get the nod because of their storied careers (*cough* Cal Ripken Jr. in 2001 *cough*), Chavez has earned it.
Now, we look at why, despite all of that, he may not end up making the All-Star Game.
Two reasons why he won't make it
An unfortunate injury
As I was researching and writing this article, Miguel Cabrera hit a rocket up the middle that caught Chavez's shin. While the righty was able to avoid serious injury, he wasn't able to avoid an IL stint.
Chavez won't be eligible to return from the IL until the end of the month, right around the time MLB selects its All-Stars.
Our favorite middle reliever only has 29 innings in the books. Most All-Star relievers will have close to 40. Even though Chavez has a great ERA, there are 12 pitchers at the time of this writing who have sub-2.00 ERAs and who will likely have more innings than Chavez by the time he gets off the IL.
Notoriety
Simply put, it is an All-STAR Game. As much as Braves fans adore the 4-stint Brave, he doesn't quite have the global marketability of an Alexis Díaz or Josh Hader (or even Daniel Bard, who is rocking the wildest ERA/FIP difference I've ever seen).
Additionally, there's no rule requiring that the NL and AL All-Star teams have relievers on their rosters. If the players and the Commissioner's Office want to stuff the team with starters, the pitchers who generally get more publicity, they could do that.
After all, it would be very easy to fill the NL squad with the top 10 starters in the league and then use the last few spots on relievers like Josh Hader, David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Alexis Díaz.
Will Jesse Chavez be an All-Star in 2023?
If you had asked me when I first thought of this article, I would've said "no." After all, closers often get the nod before other relievers, and I would have expected the relievers who are chosen to be on teams that aren't any good.
If you had asked me once I started this research, I would have said "yes." After all, Jesse Chavez has pitched remarkably similar to the non-closing relievers who have made the All-Star game in the last decade.
But, if you asked me today, the day the righty with the fun hats was placed on the IL, I would say "maybe?" After all, he did manage to avoid serious injury and the Braves will only play 13 games while he's on the IL. Surely six or seven innings won't make the difference between Jesse representing the Braves in Seattle this July or not, right?