Atlanta Braves: 2 NLDS Matchups if Postseason Started Today
Breaking down the Atlanta Braves' potential pathways through the postseason. Analyzing which two teams the Braves would face in the NLDS and which one would be a better matchup for Atlanta.
Atlanta Braves NLDS Preview If Season Ended Today: Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have rebounded from 42-48 first half. The boys in blue are 36-19 since the All-Star Break. They are led by former Braves shortstop and World Champion Dansby Swanson. Cody Bellinger is making his case for a huge contract this offseason after getting released by the Dodgers after 2022.
Chicago Cubs Starting Pitching
The Cubs have had one standout starting pitcher this year. Justin Steele boasts a 16-3 record with a 2.49 ERA. In 159.0 innings pitched, he has 159 strikeouts and leads the league with a 180 ERA+. He is a legitimate contender for the 2023 NL Cy Young.
Also Read: Comparing Dansby Swanson and Orlando Arcia
Outside of Steele, the Cubs starting pitching rotation has been pretty inconsistent. The Cubs' best two starters behind Steele have been Marcus Stroman (3.85 ERA, 23 starts) and Kyle Hendricks (3.71 ERA, 21 starts).
Stroman has not made a start since July 31st and is on the verge of returning to the team with a bullpen role. While that bodes well for the relief core, it leaves the Cubs short in terms of starting pitching. That is exactly the opposite of what they need in order to have a chance against the best offense in baseball.
This leaves Kyle Hendricks as the next-best starter for the Cubs. The Braves have logged 162 PAs against Hendricks and have absolutely destroyed him. Braves players are hitting .372 against him with a .703 slugging percentage.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs Team Comparisons - SP rWAR
Atlanta Braves: 3.7 SP rWAR (5th in MLB)
Chicago Cubs: 0.8 SP rWAR (T-17th in MLB).
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - RP rWAR
Atlanta Braves: 2.4 rWAR (3rd in MLB)
Chicago Cubs: 0.1 rWAR (14th in MLB)
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves: 3.91 ERA (6th in MLB)
Chicago Cubs: 4.01 ERA (11th in MLB)
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
The Braves will have a pretty big advantage heading into Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cubs. Chicago will have to spend their best pitcher to get through the Phillies in the first round. That will leave the options severely limited as the Braves lineup Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton.
We'll take a look at how the Cubs' offense stacks up on the next page.
Chicago Cubs Offense
The Chicago Cubs have a very light-hitting team. They are a scrappy bunch that keeps finding a way to win... in the second half of the season, that is.
The Cubs are slugging just .419 on the season. In comparison, the Braves are leading the league by an incredible margin. The Braves are in first-lace in slugging at .501. The next closest is the Dodgers at .459.
The Cubs only have three regulars with an OPS over .800. Meanwhile, the Braves only have two regulars with an OPS under .800. Orlando Arcia has a .771 OPS and Eddie Rosario is just below the line at .792.
The Atlanta Braves have a team OPS of .845 while the Cubs check in at .747.
This light-hitting Cubs team could be in huge trouble against the Braves pitching. Here's a look at how they stack up against the Braves' top starters (We'll leave Strider out since the Cubs only have four career PAs against him.)
Cubs vs. Max Fried: 66 PAs, 1.5 BB%, 25.8 K%, .266 BA, .453 SLG
Cubs vs. Charlie Morton: 86 PAs, 10.5 BB%, 23.3 K%, .247 BA, .342 SLG
The matchup doesn't look good for Chicago on paper. The Cubs don't have the firepower on offense or on the mound to match up with the Braves. Atlanta has no weakness right now and the Cubs have holes all over the roster. They are hot right now but don't dismiss their poor start. This would be a very favorable second-round matchup for the Atlanta Braves.
I'd prefer the Cubs over the next team we'll break down. The Philadelphia Phillies are incredibly hot right now and bring a lot more to the plate.
Go to the next page to begin the Phillies breakdown.
Atlanta Braves NLDS Preview If Season Ended Today: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies squeaked into the playoffs despite finishing third in the NL East in 2022. They took care of the Cardinals in the first round in two games. Despite using their top two starting pitchers in the Wild Card round, they beat the Braves three games to one in the NLDS and went on to represent the National League in the World Series.
Like the Cubs, the Phillies have a starting pitcher vying for the Cy Young. Zack Wheeler is having another phenomenal season for the Phillies with a 3.49 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 170 innings pitched.
On the offensive side, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper's bats have come alive for the Phillies as of late. Harper had been sapped of his power as he recovered from Tommy John surgery and Turner had just lost his home run swing.
On June 30th, Harper's slugging percentage was just .386. He hung around .400 until the first week of August. Since August 5th, Harper has hit 11 of his 16 homers on the season. In that time, Harper is slashing .305/.424/.670. At the same time, Trea Turner has turned up the heat. Turner has 13 homers in his past 20 games. Between August 28 and September 11, Turner hit 10 homers in an 11-game span.
The Phillies present a more frightening proposition than the Cubs for sure. let's take a look at how their pitching stacks up to the Braves on the next slide.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Pitching Breakdown
While the disadvantage of having to use the starters in the Wild Card round didn't slow down the Phillies last year, you still have to give the advantage to the Braves. It's up to the teams to execute.
As we discussed earlier, Zack Wheeler is having a Cy Young-worthy season in 2023. Aaron Nola leads the team in games started but has posted a 4.64 ERA this year. He has his moments, both good and bad. On August 27 Nola went spun seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Cardinals. He wouldn't make it five innings in either of his next two starts. Nola has five career postseason starts under his belt with a 4.91 ERA and a 2-2 record.
Ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez have both posted sub-4.00 ERAs but have 19 and 15 starts respectively. Sanchez has been a regular in the rotation since mid-June. Sanchez has only had one start in which he allowed more than three earned runs.
Of course, we remember Ranger Suarez from last year's NLDS. Suarez opened the game with Nola and Wheeler in need of rest from the first round. Suarez struck out five in 3.1 innings of one-run work. He also walked five in that start but the Phillies claimed the unlikely "W" over Max Fried and the Braves.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Team Comparisons - SP rWAR
Atlanta Braves: 3.7 SP rWAR (5th in MLB)
Philadelphia Phillies: 4.9 rWAR (3rd in MLB)
Advantage: Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - RP rWAR
Atlanta Braves: 2.4 rWAR (3rd in MLB)
Philadelphia Phillies: 1.1 rWAR (9th in MLB)
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Team ERA
Atlanta Braves: 3.91 ERA (6th in MLB)
Philadelphia Phillies: 4.03 ERA (13th in MLB)
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
The Phillies edge the Braves in SP WAR but the Braves have allowed fewer runs per nine innings and ultimately, that's what matters most. The Braves have a very solid and reliable top four this year with Fried, Strider, Morton, and Elder. The Phillies rotation is nothing to sneeze at (that's a weird thing to do anyway). They boast the sort of depth they will need to take on the Braves immediately following a Wild Card series against the Cubs.
The Phillies bullpen is led by former Braves legend Craig Kimbrel, who is adding another nice season to his resume. Kimbrel has 23 saves and 82 strikeouts in 61.0 innings. Just looking at how even the pitching matchups are makes me hope to see the Cubs in the NLDS rather than the Phillies.
Next, we'll take a look at the Philadelphia offense.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Offense
I might have put the cart before the horse in the introduction to the Phillies but Harper and Turner are clearly the stories on offense. Brandon Marsh has flourished since joining the Phillies last year. In 163 games with the Angels, he had an OPS+ of 81. In 160 games with Philadelphia, he has a 126 OPS+. That new uniform must have a different fit.
Eight of the Phillies' regulars have an OPS+ over 100. All nine of the Braves regulars are in excess of 100, but the Phillies stack up much better than the Cubs.
The Braves have a team OPS+ of 123. The Phillies have a team OPS+ of 108. The Phillies have a solid team OBP of .330, good for 7th in the MLB. However, the Braves lead the league in on-base percentage. These Braves do more than just slug homers!
The Braves have the sixth-fewest strikeouts in the league right now. Atlanta puts the ball in play a lot. This presents another advantage for the Bravos against the Phillies. Strider, Morton, and Fried all have strikeout-ability and the Phillies have struck out 1304 times (166 more than the Braves). The Braves pitchers can take advantage of the Phillies' propensity to swing and miss.
The Braves have outslugged the Phillies .501 to .440. At the end of the day, scoring runs is the most important thing in baseball. The Braves have scored 841 runs (1st in MLB, and it's not close) while the Phillies have scored 707.
If this Braves offense is clicking, nobody can shut them down. While I think it's clear that the Braves would prefer to face the Cubs in the NLDS, they can handle anybody. This is their year... again!