Assessing whether the Braves should be buyers or sellers during the offseason

The Braves’ 2024 season has been mired in injury and lackluster performance. Both Ronald Acuna Jr and Spencer Strider exited the season early in the year which has haunted the Braves ever since. With both of them coming back next year, 2025 is looking much brighter. Still, there are some questions going into next season.

Both Max Fried and Charlie Morton among others will be entering free agency this offseason. If neither of them return, this would by no means be a death blow to the Braves as they have numerous rotation options. But there is one significant caveat that could prevent the Braves from landing the help they need to bag another WS trophy.

Alex Anthopoulos seems unwilling to cross the third luxury-tax threshold. This would likely mean valuable free agents are out of the question. Again, while none of this is a certain death blow, it does a raise an intriguing question: should the Braves buy or sell during the offseason. Before jumping to conclusions, let’s explore the cases for both options.

The case to buy

Next year, the Braves offense will be bolstered with the return of Acuna. Assuming Fried is too much to pay for and Morton retires the Braves will have plenty of rotation options in Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Ian Anderson, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Dylan Dodd.

With Acuna returning and the rotation boasting several viable options, the Braves are almost a lock for a postseason spot. In addition, Nacho Alvarez Jr will likely be up to the task of handling shortstop which should fix the Braves’ current woes at that position. Should the Braves enter the season with what they currently have, their projected lineup will look something like this:

At the moment, it looks like the Braves will only need to bolster their bullpen seeing as how AJ Minter and Jesse Chavez will be hitting the open market while Luke Jackson and Aaron Bummer have club options worth more than they are currently being paid. But if the Braves wanted to further improve their lineup, they could afford a little help with Morton and Fried coming off the books. Is there even a reason to sell?

The case to sell

Right now, there are several question marks. For one, we don’t know how the pitching staff will perform. We know that when Fried is healthy, he is an impact starter. But Fried will most likely be leaving. I’m sure most Braves fans through the years can remember Kyle Wright and Mike Soroka, two great starters that fell injured and never returned to form.

The injuries the rotation usually sustains every year are very concerning. Injuries aside, we don’t know what we’ll see from any of these starters. We came into the year looking to see more of last year’s utter Braves’ dominance, but most players have regressed sharply. Should Sale or Lopez regress (which hopefully is never the case), the Braves’ rotation would be radically changed for the worst. But in any case, beyond Sale and Lopez, the others are still question marks.

Secondly, the farm system is very shallow. The Braves had three prospects on the MLB’s Top 100 Prospects list this season (Smith-Shawver, Waldrep, and Schwellenbach who is no longer considered a prospect), each of whom have been used this year. With many of the Braves’ key contracts expiring in the next two years, they could be wasting a valuable opportunity to rebuild their depth and construct a future juggernaut. Not to mention, trading for an impact player will be difficult should the Braves choose to buy.

Third, there is Anthopoulos’ refusal to spend into the third luxury tax bracket, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but removes the possibility of landing a transformational star unless enough salary can be dumped. The Braves are still a competitive team regardless of making any moves. But that leads us to our last point.

There is the matter of winning a World Series. We can undoubtedly expect next year’s Braves to be much better than the Atlanta club that seems to be spiraling out of contention this season. Still, one must ask a very important question: can the Braves beat the Phillies or Dodgers next year? If the answer is yes, then none of the other question marks matter that much. But there is no guarantee.

The sting of two straight postseason losses to the Phillies is still fresh in the memory of every Braves’ fan. If Anthopoulos doesn’t make a significant splash sometime next season, the Braves might be in for more of the same.

The verdict

Make no mistake, the Braves will once more have a postseason team next year. Any team with a shot at a World Series should take it. The problem here is that it is doubtful the Braves have the pieces necessary to push them past the finish line.

With Anthopoulos capping expenditures, the chances of an impactful signing are not strong. But perhaps this shouldn’t mean a Braves’ fire sale is a must. Anthopoulos can strike a balance by shedding payroll. Two ways of doing this would be by declining options for unessential players or via the trade market which would bring the Braves a return for their players.

As for the pitching staff, any concerns in that department can be addressed at the trade deadline. The Braves, though they lack depth in their farm system, should have enough talent to trade for a quality rental arm.

A sell-off isn’t entirely necessary, but if the Braves are going to have the best chance of winning next season, changes must be made. In the end, it's up to Alex Anthopoulos.

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