A way too early 2024 Atlanta Braves top-ten prospect list: Part one
Atlanta Braves roster reductions last week exposed just how thin the 28th-ranked minor league system in baseball is on high-level talent.
Baseball Prospectus ($), Baseball America ($), and The Outfield Fly Rule posted the early version of their 2024 Atlanta Braves prospect list over the last two weeks; MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs have yet to publish a new list.
The departure of so many well-known players is bound to leave a void, so many of the names are new, and the players are very young. While most names are the same from those three sources, the order is very different, which also means there’s no consensus on any player at any rank. So, I created a list by averaging the ranks of the sites. It isn’t a perfect list, but rankings are nebulous things to begin with.
Today I’ll cover prospects ranked 10 to 6 in reverse order. Just to confuse things a bit, two players were so close at 9th that I couldn’t separate them. So, my top-ten list has eleven players. (Sue me.)
10: Luis Guanipa 18 – OF–DSL, BA- unranked, BP – 7th, OFFR 13th.
BP and the OFFR agree Guanipa's bat has a long way to go, but his speed and power give him a chance to make the trip, and his age gives him the time to do it without being rushed.
BP said his “under-the-hood qualities can’t be ignored…good bat speed from a compact frame and surprisingly short swing.”
BA: Guanipa packs explosive athleticism into a strong, compact frame (and has) an impressive mix of power and speed
FV 45/50 Average outfielder with occasional big pop.
9: Drue Hackenberg 22 – RHP – Low A, BA 9th, BP 8th, OFFR 9th.
Drue Hackenberg DAZZLED in his pro debut for the @GreenJackets ⭐️
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 30, 2023
2 2/3 IP | 0 H | 0 R | 1 BB | 5 K
Read about what special drink fuels the @Braves second rounder's repertoire: https://t.co/1NQHB4FEI6 pic.twitter.com/dxVRnYVsav
Hackenberg features a low 90s FB that touches 96 with hard arm side run and a low 80s slider that flashes plus, but is still a work in progress. He also throws the occasional 80mph change against lefties to keep them off balance. His strong suit is a 55% GB rate off the sinker-slider combo. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s early days as he’s only thrown 6.1 innings in three games.
FV/45 Back of the rotation starter.
9: Drake Baldwin 23 – C – AA, BA 7th, BP 10th, OFFR 8th. FV/45
While the sites are split on his defense, BP likes his blocking, and BA says his setup looked “unique," but both like his framing and agree his arm is “fringy.”
All agreed that Baldwin’s bat is his carry tool. He understands the zone, takes his walks, and hits to all fields. BP points out that he played college ball in a minor league ballpark, so there’s “an abundance of batted ball data that suggested Baldwin was a potential steal.” He has time to develop but currently projects as a backup catcher.
FV/45 First-division backup catcher.
8: Cade Kuehler (Key-ler) 21 – RHP – Low A, BA 10, BP 8, OFFR 5.
When the Atlanta Brave selected Kuehler, OFFR said:
“The profile here — big fastball, crazy slider, violent delivery, mustache — makes the Spencer Strider comps (are) probably unavoidable…”
Kuehler features a mid-to-high 90s fastball that had 20” of vertical break in college ball, a gyro-slider, and a curve. His pitches move so much that, in his two games in Low-A, it had minor league hitters shaking their heads.
Unlike Strider, Kuehler has a funky delivery with a lot of things moving. I’d call him a short-arm pitcher; the ball appears from behind his head and arrives at such a high velocity it’s hard to track. He strikes out a lot of batters but can be wild and walk too many as well.
FV/45 Back of the rotation starter.
7: David McCabe 2B – 3B – A/A+, BA 6, BP unrated, OFFR 10.
Nominally a third baseman, McCabe’ has an arm strong enough for the role, but OFFR says he’s only an “adequate” defender at third, while BA suggests that he’ll eventually move to a corner outfield slot or first base.
At the plate, he’s a switch hitter who strikes out at a 22% rate and walks 15% of the time. His walks inflated the OBP of his impressive a .276/.385/.450 line. He was drafted as a power bat and displayed most of that power from the left side. However, he saw a lot more RHP than LHP, so that may not tell the story.
McCabe is the closest thing to a potential power-hitting outfielder in the system, even though he’s never played there, and the Atlanta Braves haven’t mentioned a position change.
FV/45 Likely somewhere besides third base.
6: Ignacio (Nacho) Alvarez 20 – 3B/SS – A
Prospect City ™️
— Rome Emperors (@GoEmperors) August 26, 2023
Nacho Alvarez Jr. puts it in the woods and it’s all Braves early on.#RaisedInRome | #ForTheA pic.twitter.com/4pEtDXHBn3
BA says, "Alvarez has arguably the best pure bat-to-ball skills" in Atlanta’s system. He struck only 17.4% of the time and walked 13.4% while posting a .284/.395/.391 line at Rome.
He’s developed into Atlanta’s top pure hitting …has a knack for situational hitting, and (crushed0left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .964 OPS.
BP called Alvarez a plus defender at third who could play second easily and play short in a pinch. That description makes him sound a bit like Vaughn Grissom with speed. BP compared him to former Braves prospect Justin-Henry Mallow, but better.
Alvarez is better in just about every way and could be a plus hitter if he lifts the ball without sacrificing his bat-to-ball ability and interesting exit velocities.
That’s a Wrap
When so many of a team’s prospects are playing below or moving to AA next year, the Atlanta Braves farm system is clearly thin on useful Major League depth and mid-level trade pieces. The situation isn’t as bad as it sounds because GM Alex Anthopoulos planned ahead, extending the core of the lineup long enough to start the rebuild while the team continues to win.
Stay tuned for Atlanta Braves prospects one through five tomorrow.
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