8 Reasons Ronald Acuna Jr. Should Still Win NL MVP Over Mookie Betts
We break down the stats from all angles and explain why we think Ronald Acuna Jr. is still the National League MVP over Mookie Betts.
NL MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - Batting Average
Ronald is hitting .338 vs. Betts' .318. Acuna has the edge but this is the geezer stat, right? As we'll see later, Acuna gets a hit a little more frequently but not enough to really give a voting edge to either guy. As with many of the stats, both players are excellent hitters. They aren't one-trick ponies, dogs, or any other trick-performing animals.
Advantage: Acuna, but we have a long way to go.
NL MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - On-Base Percentage
Mookie Betts has a phenomenal .409 OBP which is good for fourth-best in the MLB. However, Acuna has the trump card here as he leads all of baseball with a .420 OBP. As we covered in the last section, Acuna has the batting average advantage, as well. Acuna is walking in 11.4% of his plate appearances and Betts is walking in 13.1% of his PAs. Both are very good but the edge in batting average is getting Acuna on base more frequently than his opponent.
Advantage: Ronald Acuna Jr.
We are just getting started. Click "next" to continue the comparisons.
National League MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - OPS & SLG
OPS is calculated by adding the on-base percentage and slugging percentages together. Slugging percentages are calculated in the fashion of batting average but include total bases to identify players who hit for more power.
So, a single is worth one, doubles are worth two, triples are worth three, and homers are worth four. Add them together and divide by total at-bats and you have the slugging percentage. At some point, we started adding the on-base percentage and slugging together to get an idea of who gets on base and slugs the best.
To put these two guys' production into perspective, the total OPS in the MLB this year is .734. The MLB has an OBP of .320 with an SLG of .414.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 1.001 OPS this year. Mookie Betts has 1.028 OPS.
Acuna has him beat on OBP but Betts wins SLG. Acuna is rocking a .580 SLG while Betts is channeling his inner Babe Ruth* with a .619 SLG. Both are great.
*Fun Fact: Mookie's .619 SLG leads the league. Babe Ruth's career SLG was .690...over 22 years.
Advantage: Mookie Betts
NL MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - Total Hits and K%
Mookie might have Acuna beat in doubles and homers, but he doesn't have him beaten by MUCH and Acuna has more hits. Betts has 36 doubles, one triple, and 38 homers on the year. Acuna has 31 HRs, 32 doubles, and three triples.
Betts has 158 hits but Acuna leads the league with 183 knocks. Now, Acuna has played in a few more games than Betts, but Acuna still has him beat in hits per game. Acuna has 1.37 hits per game this season compared to Betts' 1.23.
On top of earning more hits, Acuna is striking out just 11.8% of his PAs. Betts strikes out in 15.1% of his plate appearances. Refusing to go down on strikes is probably a reason Acuna gets more hits on balls that don't get hit out of the park.
Advantage: Acuna
National League MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - Runs Scored & Durability
Ronald Acuna leads the league in runs scored. We might be splitting hairs on the power numbers but Acuna does find a way to get on base more and do the most important thing you can do in baseball, score runs. Acuna leads the league with 122 runs scored. Mookie is not far behind at 116.
On a per-game basis, Acuna BARELY edges Betts out. Nonetheless, he's been out there more and scored more runs by being incredible and staying healthy.
Acuna has played every single game for Atlanta this year. There is real value in knowing you'll have one of the best players in baseball take the field for you every single day.
Advantage: Acuna
National League MVP Race: Acuna vs. Betts - Defense
Fangraphs has a fielding runs saved metric that removes positional adjustments from the equation. Read more about how some of these defensive metrics work here. Essentially, we are accustomed to seeing a defensive run saved number that compares the player to other players at their position. This Def rating at Fangraphs removes the positional adjustments from the equation and shows how many fielding runs saved the player is worth, above or below the league average. Mookie is at -0.4 and Acuna is at -9.9.
In terms of defensive runs saved, Acuna has been worth zero runs saved over the average right fielder on the season while Mookie has been worth three runs saved above average in RF despite playing in just 638.2 innings at the position. He has also logged six defensive runs saved in just 350 innings at second base.
In addition to posting better numbers on defense, his flexibility to play RF or 2B has given the Dodgers flexibility with their lineups. We saw it in game one of the series when Betts started at second, allowing the Dodgers to get the three lefty OF bats in the lineup against Strider.
Here you can read more on Acuna's defensive struggles and why his metrics aren't as good as we'd like.
Advantage: Betts
National League MVP Race: Acuna or Betts? Consistency Factor
Mookie Betts had an absolutely insane August in order to truly put his name in the hat for MVP. Outside of that, this Award has been Acuna's since the first month of the season. Mookie had to have one of the greatest months of all time to "pull even" with Acuna.
Don't overlook the value of Acuna's consistency. He has been so consistently great it's almost been boring, so to speak. He is the ultimate set it and forget it. Betts' fantastic August made up for an average April.
Betts hit just .235 in April.
Acuna's worst month was in May when he hit .298.
Betts' .781 OPS in April was his worst month of the season.
July was Acuna's worst month. His OPS was .918.
While their season-long numbers look similar, Acuna has been more consistent and reliable. That has real value. Streaks can kill in baseball. A cold streak at the wrong time is one of the most terrifying things in baseball. I don't think there has been a more consistently great player in the game than Ronald Acuna Jr. He simply hasn't had a cold streak. He's been a .917-1.100 OPS hitter (monthly) all season long!
Advantage: Acuna
Conclusion: What About Steals!? Why Ronald Acuna Jr. Should be the MVP
We split a lot of hair in this article. Acuna and Betts both get on base at elite levels. Splitting hairs. They both slug at elite levels, we are splitting hairs. Betts is better on defense but Acuna isn't bad. Acuna is not hurting his team out there for sure. Both guys set the table for a great team.
The one thing the popular offensive metrics don't do is factor in the value of stolen bases. OPS is a bit arbitrary, despite being a great measuring stick. We know Acuna and Betts are both phenomenal at slugging and getting on base. We shouldn't treat steals like some separate stat on its own little island!
I used a spreadsheet to add the value of stolen bases as a total bases per plate appearance.
Here is how I calculated the number:
(1B + (2B * 2) + (3B * 3) + (HR * 4) + BB + IBB + HBP + SB)
Bases Including Steals | Bases Per PA | |
|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuna Jr. | 458 | 0.74 |
Mookie Betts | 406 | 0.69 |
So, like I mentioned, we split many hairs today. Two areas that jump off the spreadsheet are singles and stolen bases.
Acuna blows Betts away in singles while splitting hairs in slugging. 117 singles for Acuna compared to just 83 for Betts. SLG or OPS don't account for all the singles Acuna gets and then turns into doubles or even triples by stealing bases. If you factor in the damage Acuna does on the basepaths, he adds an element of the game that Betts just doesn't feature in 2023.
Considering how close these two guys are in all the primary categories, I think you have to give Acuna the edge for adding an element that Betts doesn't have.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is having a truly historic season. The man leads baseball in runs, stolen bases, on-base percentage, and hits. He is also fourth in batting average. He is the only player to ever hit 30 homers and steal 60 bags in a season.
Anything he does from here on out is history. That is definitive. Is it worth overlooking that for split hairs? I don't think so.
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