Last night's brutal extra innings walk-off loss to the rival New York Mets felt like a season-low point for Braves fans. Atlanta has now lost five in a row and owns a 3-7 record in their last ten games. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has held a lead for a total of TWO innings. Simply put, things are not great right now.
Thanks to this current free fall the Braves are on, the team has finally created legitimate concerns about missing the playoffs this season. Once a forgotten conclusion, the Braves postseason spot is no longer considered a lock. Hopes of winning a seventh consecutive NL East crown have all but vanished, and now they're in trouble of watching October baseball from the sidelines.
As of right now, the Braves hold the first National League Wild Card spot. However, they now sit just 1.5 games from dropping out of the postseason altogether. While we hope things turn around, the reality is that we have a lot of reasons why 2024 may just be a complete disappointment.
The teams chasing are HOT
While the Atlanta Braves (54-47) are trending down, the NL teams chasing them are on opposite trajectories. The New York Mets (54-48) and San Diego Padres (55-50) currently hold the second and third NL Wild Card spots, and both teams are on winning streaks of at least four games.
The NL Wild Card standings continue to be a roller coaster ride 🎢 pic.twitter.com/pMYr9HTjQs
— MLB (@MLB) July 26, 2024
The teams behind them are gearing up to make a push into the postseason with their current hot play. Firstly, you see the St. Louis Cardinals (53-49) who sit just 0.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot and took two out of three in their recent meeting with Atlanta.
Then you have the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks (53-50), who are 7-3 in their last ten ballgames. The D-backs also have a +22 run differential which is right in line with the Mets and Padres.
Lastly, you find the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-50) who are extremely hot going 8-2 in their last ten games. The Pirates may just pitch their way to October behind the fastest-rising star in the National League. Regardless of WHO it is, all these teams are well within striking distance of the Bravos, and they all are playing much better baseball as of right now.
Stars are showing no sign of a turnaround
One of the biggest reasons the Braves could be watching the postseason this year is the play of their star players. It's really been one of the themes of the 2024 Braves season. Naturally, we expected guys to regress after an incredible 2023 season, but this has turned into another level.
Gone are the days of "this is just a slump" for the established stars on this roster. We are over 100 games into the season, and it's going to take some scorching hot play over the last two months for most of these guys to even reach their career averages.
The first many fans point to is the man who set numerous records last year, and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Yes, 2024 has seen Matt Olson regress, but no one expected it to hit this hard. After posting a 160 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR a season ago, Olson currently stands at a 93 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR. Meaning Olson has played at the replacement level in 2024. Replacement level isn't necessarily something you can take from one of your star players.
Matt Olson on holding himself to a high standard: “It’s never easy. It is always magnified when it is happening to yourself. You look and as a team, don’t feel like we are clicking. Any competitor is going to be hard on themselves.” pic.twitter.com/JUac5hSF2c
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) July 24, 2024
Olson isn't the only culprit though, as Austin Riley has experienced a down year by his standards as well. The biggest difference is the power. Riley belted at least 37 homers each of the last two seasons, but in 2024 he sits with just 13 with just 61 games left to play. As a result, Riley's OPS has dropped nearly .100 points. Riley has finished in the top seven of MVP voting each of the last three years. However, it's going to take a long hot streak from Riley this year to even flirt with that possibility.
We could rattle off many more names here, with guys like Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Michael Harris II. However, each of those guys was battling injuries at some point in the season so their sample size isn't as strong. The toughest part of all of this is despite good weeks here and there, no Braves position player star, outside of Marcell Ozuna, has come close to putting a quality month of baseball together.