Fansided

6 reasons the Atlanta Braves will miss the playoffs

Braves country is nearing rock bottom

By Chase Owens |
Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks / Christian Petersen/GettyImages
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Last night's brutal extra innings walk-off loss to the rival New York Mets felt like a season-low point for Braves fans. Atlanta has now lost five in a row and owns a 3-7 record in their last ten games. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has held a lead for a total of TWO innings. Simply put, things are not great right now.

Thanks to this current free fall the Braves are on, the team has finally created legitimate concerns about missing the playoffs this season. Once a forgotten conclusion, the Braves postseason spot is no longer considered a lock. Hopes of winning a seventh consecutive NL East crown have all but vanished, and now they're in trouble of watching October baseball from the sidelines.

As of right now, the Braves hold the first National League Wild Card spot. However, they now sit just 1.5 games from dropping out of the postseason altogether. While we hope things turn around, the reality is that we have a lot of reasons why 2024 may just be a complete disappointment.

The teams chasing are HOT

While the Atlanta Braves (54-47) are trending down, the NL teams chasing them are on opposite trajectories. The New York Mets (54-48) and San Diego Padres (55-50) currently hold the second and third NL Wild Card spots, and both teams are on winning streaks of at least four games.

The teams behind them are gearing up to make a push into the postseason with their current hot play. Firstly, you see the St. Louis Cardinals (53-49) who sit just 0.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot and took two out of three in their recent meeting with Atlanta.

Then you have the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks (53-50), who are 7-3 in their last ten ballgames. The D-backs also have a +22 run differential which is right in line with the Mets and Padres.

Lastly, you find the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-50) who are extremely hot going 8-2 in their last ten games. The Pirates may just pitch their way to October behind the fastest-rising star in the National League. Regardless of WHO it is, all these teams are well within striking distance of the Bravos, and they all are playing much better baseball as of right now.

Stars are showing no sign of a turnaround

One of the biggest reasons the Braves could be watching the postseason this year is the play of their star players. It's really been one of the themes of the 2024 Braves season. Naturally, we expected guys to regress after an incredible 2023 season, but this has turned into another level.

Gone are the days of "this is just a slump" for the established stars on this roster. We are over 100 games into the season, and it's going to take some scorching hot play over the last two months for most of these guys to even reach their career averages.

The first many fans point to is the man who set numerous records last year, and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Yes, 2024 has seen Matt Olson regress, but no one expected it to hit this hard. After posting a 160 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR a season ago, Olson currently stands at a 93 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR. Meaning Olson has played at the replacement level in 2024. Replacement level isn't necessarily something you can take from one of your star players.

Olson isn't the only culprit though, as Austin Riley has experienced a down year by his standards as well. The biggest difference is the power. Riley belted at least 37 homers each of the last two seasons, but in 2024 he sits with just 13 with just 61 games left to play. As a result, Riley's OPS has dropped nearly .100 points. Riley has finished in the top seven of MVP voting each of the last three years. However, it's going to take a long hot streak from Riley this year to even flirt with that possibility.

We could rattle off many more names here, with guys like Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Michael Harris II. However, each of those guys was battling injuries at some point in the season so their sample size isn't as strong. The toughest part of all of this is despite good weeks here and there, no Braves position player star, outside of Marcell Ozuna, has come close to putting a quality month of baseball together.

Injuries may never stop

If there's another theme besides regression of power for the 2024 season, it's most definitely the injury bug. Lately, it feels like the Braves can't go more than a week without suffering an injury to one of their starters.

Then you start to talk about WHO the Braves have lost. Truthfully, most teams would be underwater if they lost the caliber of players Atlanta has. Thankfully, the Braves played well enough in April to establish a cushion for times like these.

First, Atlanta lost their staff ace Spencer Strider for the year. Then just a month later the reigning NL MVP went down with a season-ending ACL injury. Add in IL stints for guys like Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, and much, much more, you can see why 2024 has constantly felt like an uphill battle.

No pieces to swing a big trade

Despite how hopeless a season can feel, we've seen this movie before. The 2021 Braves felt like a lost cause in early July. However, the stars finally picked it up and Alex Anthopoulos pulled the trade deadline of the century. Many fans are hopeful for a repeat, but sadly it may not be in the cards.

In 2021, MLB was still under the five-team per-league playoff format. Now that the expanded playoffs are here, the trade deadline offers fewer selling teams to trade with. Thus shrinking the number of players available and driving their prices up.

Sadly, the Braves simply don't have the prospects to swing a big trade at this year's deadline. They have a bunch of fast-rising arms, and an intriguing catching prospect in Drake Baldwin, but that isn't enough to win bidding wars for the top trade deadline players.

Instead, Anthopoulos will have to recreate 2021 with the marginal trade acquisitions and hope they play better down the stretch. This year's versions of Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario may very well be out there. Unfortunately, despite his amazing track record, it's not likely that Anthopoulos will hit on all three once again.

Heavyweights remain on the schedule

The worst thing about the Braves recent poor play is that it feels as if they stand no chance against the better teams in baseball. And unfortunately for them, Atlanta still has quite a bit of games with some of baseball's best.

As you know the Phillies have been the best team in baseball for the majority of the season, and Atlanta still has more than a few games against their NL East rival. In total, the Braves have seven games with the mighty Phillies.

On top of that, the Braves will host the Dodgers for a four-game set in September, and they have two series left with the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The road doesn't get any easier for the Braves, and these tough matchups could push Atlanta out of the postseason picture.

Braves can't get out of their own way

Finally, we arrive at the biggest reason that would cause Atlanta to miss the playoffs, themselves. The Braves simply can't quit beating themselves right now. Last night's extra-innings baserunning blunder and misplay in the outfield was the epitome of how things have been going for Atlanta.

Just when it looks like they are ready to flip the switch, the 2024 Braves do something beyond head-scratching. As a fan, many of us have kept telling ourselves this was just a short-time snag along the journey. But then the Braves hit a new rock bottom. Each and every week.

It's not something any of us expected, and that's why we keep telling ourselves it can still turn around. And while it's not something we want to admit, sometimes it just simply not your year. The 2024 Braves still have time to right the ship, but at this point, not many fans are expecting they will.

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