5 Reasons the Atlanta Braves Won't Win the World Series

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Bryce Elder Continues to Regress to the Mean

Bryce Elder played a major role in the Atlanta Braves' first-half success. With Max Fried and Kyle Wright battling injuries the first half of the year (and beyond), the Braves needed a hero. Bryce Elder put on the cape and stepped up. Through July 3rd, Elder had a stellar 2.45 ERA and had earned an All-Star nod in his second season with the big club.

The underlying metrics looked a little worrisome, but sometimes pitchers can outperform the peripherals. Many were wondering if Bryce Elder was one of those guys. While his ERA hung out with the cool kids at 2.45, his FIP was vaping with the losers (vaping is not cool) with a 3.77.

What is FIP? "Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is a viral disease caused by a feline coronavirus that affects wild and domestic cats." -WEB M.D.

I was actually talking about his Fielding Independent Pitching stats, but either way... it's not good.

FIP factors in factors that pitchers have the most control over. It pretty much covers everything except for balls hit into play. Because balls hit in play are not important in baseball...

Regardless, the FIP is the underlying number to the ERA and the FIP said that Elder might be getting a little too lucky. Barstool Sports did a piece on Elder as one of the top regression candidates in the second half based on his awful Statcast numbers and really good real numbers.

Since that July 3rd start, Elder has actually posted a higher ERA than his FIP. So, the good news (bad news to come) is that he might be due to be better, moving forward. Since July 9th, Elder has given up 20 earned runs in 23.1 innings. That's a 7.71 ERA with a 6.86 FIP.

His StatCast numbers offer no refuge.

Fastball Spin: 4th Percentile

Fastball Velocity: 9th Percentile

Whiff %: 30th Percentile

K%: 15th Percentile

Is reality coming back to bite Elder in the rear? If so, where does that leave the Braves rotation?

Atlanta Braves v Pittsburgh Pirates / Justin K. Aller/GettyImages

Atlanta Braves Offense Implodes

The entire lineup is pretty much having a career year. What if they slow down? Let's take a look at some of the paces. Not all of these are sustainable over an entire season.

We have covered how the Braves are on pace to smash all the team offensive records (mostly set by the 2003 version of the team), and several individual records.

Obviously, the Braves are on pace to destroy some impressive offensive numbers, but that doesn't mean they will. Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. Streaks of good and streaks of bad.

Perhaps the Braves are about to implode offensively. Get cold at the wrong time? Even if they did slow down, several players would finish with career years. It wouldn't be so surprising if the bats cooled down over the next couple of months.

Take a look at some of the paces and how they are outperforming career trends on the next slide.

Atlanta Braves v Chicago Cubs / Quinn Harris/GettyImages

Atlanta Braves Offense Implodes - Part Two

Matt Olson has slugged his way into the MVP conversation in the National League. This is a feat that seemed impossible a few weeks ago, as Ronald Acuna Jr. had it in the bag. Matt Olson is a stud and has been for a while. Even though we are just 110 games into the season, Olson already has the third-most RBI (in a season) of his entire career. It won't be long before he blows past his career-high of 111 RBI.

His career OPS is .863, which is phenomenal. This season he's at .975 with a league-leading .605 SLG. I mean, what a season. Is it possible he cools off and still finishes with 45-50 homers? Yes.

Like Olson, Ozzie Albies' .829 OPS is well above his career .797 OPS. However, it is not his best as he finished with a .852 OPS in 2019. Albies' .508 SLG is also a career-high. He is on pace for 38 homers this season. That would be wonderful, but would you be surprised if he falls off that pace?

Ronald Acuna Jr. is having the best season of his career, easily. He has blasted his career-best 37 steals with 51 through 109 games. Acuna is on pace for 76 steals, nearly 40 more than his best. He already has his second-best runs scored total and is on pace for a franchise record. His career OPS is .910 and Acuna has somehow demolished that with a 1.014 OPS in 2023.

Arizona Diamondbacks v Atlanta Braves / Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/GettyImages

Uncle Charlie Become Great Uncle Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton will turn 50 in November... of 2033. That still means he's old right now (in terms of professional athletes). We all know he has had a great late-career surge. His best years came in his 30s. However, his 30s are nearly finished. The joy ride has to come to an end sometime. In his past four starts, he has a 7.32 ERA.

You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a WHIP as bad as Charlie Morton's current 1.44 WHIP. Sure between 2008-2012 this was the norm for him, but that was when he was in his 20s, before he hit his prime at 35. When I wrote that, I picked a mid-thirties number at random that seemed funny because I knew it was probably about true. Turns out, his age-35 season was actually his best season. It was his prime.

The last time Morton's walk rate was as high as it is in 2023, he pitched four games for the Phillies in 2016. That was back when he was still just a kid trying to figure things out in the big leagues at 32 years old.

Morton still has a really good fastball and one of the best curveballs in baseball. However, we've seen stretches from Morton where he just isn't good. He has been in one of those stretches over the past four games. He's more than just a luxury this season. He is a necessity. The Braves are not really in a position to lose the consistency Morton has provided all season.

Los Angeles Angels v Atlanta Braves / Todd Kirkland/GettyImages

The Complete Lack of a 5th Starter

The Braves made a deadline deal to acquire Yonny Chirinos. While I respect Yonny from his days with the Rays, it shows the lack of quality pitching depth in the rotation. They have mowed through guys in that fifth spot. The Braves have had 15 different pitchers start a game for them this season. That's a big number considering three of them have over 20 starts.

Michael Soroka has not been able to regain his All-Star form as quickly as we hoped. Jared Shuster doesn't appear to be quite ready for the bigs. Spring training darling Dylan Dodd had a 7.40 ERA in five starts (sounds about like Elder and Morton's last few starts).

Summary and Conclusion

If Elder and Morton keep falling off and the Braves don't have anyone to plug into fill the gaps, the rotation could end up being way too thin to make a run in the postseason. Remember, the postseason is now a marathon because... money.

The playoffs are too long to predict. They are not designed to get the two best teams in the championship. They are designed to milk as much money as possible out of ad dollars and television contracts. Nobody gives a crap about the best teams getting to the World Series anymore. Look at the Phillies last year... they didn't deserve to be in that spot. The more I talk, the more I am convincing myself that Major League Baseball has really diluted the value of a six-month season.

I apologize for the negativity. I got tired of being so positive all season. This is the opposite of the 2021 season. At the All-Star break, I wrote an article about why the Braves would still win the NL East and the comments eviscerated me for being optimistic. Now that y'all are positive, I figured I'd rain on your parades.

The Braves are having a great year and it's been a ton of fun to watch. No matter what happens, this is a season to be remembered. Enjoy it!

Love you,

-Seth

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