5 bold predictions for the Atlanta Braves for the 2024 season
Looking ahead to what should happen in 2024 now that the Braves' have their roster mostly set.
For the moment, it does appear as though the Atlanta Braves have finished the heavy lifting that they needed to do this offseason. It has taken a slew of moves that culled the 40 man roster and moved pieces around, but the Braves ultimately came away with the roster upgrades they needed in left field, the bullpen, and the starting rotation albeit in unexpected ways.
There is still room on the 40 man roster and Alex Anthopoulos could easily pull off another magic trick, but the trade for Chris Sale does feel like the last box the Braves needed to check entering the 2024 season. Anything that happens the rest of the way is just going to be icing on the cake. The only question now is how these moves will shake out and whether or not they were enough to put the Braves over the top.
With that in mind, here is a look at some bold predictions for the Braves for the 2024 now that we know, generally speaking, what the roster is going to look like.
Ronald Acuna Jr. will go at least 40/50 next season
It is wild that this prediction doesn't feel all that bold, but that speaks more to how insane Ronald Acuna Jr. is as a baseball player. Last season, Acuna Jr. didn't just join the already very exclusive 40/40 club, he created clubs of his own when he finished with 41 homers and 73 stolen bases. Those are video game numbers, full stop.
No player in baseball history has more than one 40/40 season. Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Jose Canseco, and Acuna Jr. all pulled the trick off once and Ronnie, Soriano, and Bonds all have some close calls for a second one. We are in rarified air with this, but you will still struggle to find anyone that is willing to bet against Ronald pulling 40/40 off again next year.
So, we will go a step further. It is probably safe to assume that teams will be a little more diligent in trying to keep Ronald from running wild again, so 70+ stolen bases again will be tough. However, teams are not going to be able completely contain him on the base paths and 40 homers seems very doable, so we'll guess that he "just" goes 40/50 in 2024 and continues to rewrite the history books.
Spencer Strider will be the Braves' best pitcher, but it will be close
Until Spencer Strider became a full-time addition to the Braves' rotation, most would have bet that Max Fried would be Atlanta's unquestioned ace for a long time. From 2017-2022, Fried averaged a 3.09 ERA including a pair of top 5 Cy Young finishes in 2020 and 2022. If you made a list of the best left-handed starters in the league, Fried's name simply has to be on it.
Given that, it is remarkable that Max wouldn't be considered the best pitcher on the Braves' staff, but Spencer Strider has made this a tough debate thanks to an unbelievable start to his career. His strikeout rate is objectively insane and he has already finished second in Rookie of the Year and fourth in Cy Young voting despite only having two full seasons in the league. The sky is the limit when it comes to his potential.
Both pitchers have their issues. The long ball was a problem for Strider last season and Fried's arm health after missing a big chunk of time in 2023 is a real concern. However, we are betting that both are in good form next season and so the question becomes who will be the Braves' best pitcher next season?
Anyone that thinks either Strider or Fried are going to run away with the distinction are fooling themselves. These guys are very different pitchers, but both are extremely good and capable of winning a Cy Young next year. We are going to give the edge to Strider as the strikeout numbers are too good to ignore and he is only getting better and better, but this is going to be close.
Austin Riley will finish in the top 5 in NL MVP voting
Lost in the otherworldly seasons from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson in 2023 is that Austin Riley was a bona fide stud last season. In 715 plate appearances, Riley slashed .281/.345/.516 with 37 homers on his way to a 127 wRC+ and his third straight season with 4.8 fWAR or more. Riley is one of those guys that just goes out and does his job with little fanfare, but he is quickly establishing himself as one of the best hitters in baseball.
Over the last three seasons, Riley has garnered some MVP voting love as he has finished in the top 7 from 2021-2023. Again, there is no shame in that whatsoever. However, we are betting that 2024 is going to be the year that Riley finally breaks through.
Matt Olson's 2023 season was amazing and he will likely have a good season next year as well. However, 2023 feels like the best case scenario for Olson and it seems probable that he won't be QUITE as good next year. If he hits .260-.270 next year with 40 plus bombs, that it still a tremendous accomplishment and feels like it is very much in the cards.
However, we are betting that Austin finally joins the 40 home run club and posts a wRC+ north of 140 to eclipse Olson's production in 2024. Now that his defense at third base appears to be in a good spot, bet on a fantastic all-around season from Austin and a top 5 finish in NL MVP voting in 2024. He may not be able to match Ronald (who can?), but pencil him in as the second best Braves position player next season.
Hurston Waldrep will be in the Braves' rotation by the end of the season
While acquiring Chris Sale has finally brought some level of stability to the Braves' rotation, the fifth spot in the rotation still seems like it is up for grabs. Bryce Elder is going to get the chance to hold on to the spot as he was an All-Star last year and he wasn't bad enough in the second half when he was gased to just completely abandon ship there.
That said, Elder's stuff requires him to be spot on with his command as he is never going to be overpowering guys out there. Darius Vines and Dylan Dodd are in a similar spot as Elder. Both are very talented guys, but they don't have much room for error when it comes to success in the big leagues. AJ Smith-Shawver certainly has the stuff to be a quality big league starter, but it has always felt like the Braves were moving him very quickly through the minor leagues and giving him some time to refine his craft could be wise.
One name that Braves fans really need to keep an eye on next year for the rotation, however, is Hurston Waldrep whom the Braves picked in the first round last year when he fell in their lap. A legitimate power pitcher, Waldrep's fastball is routinely in the middle to upper 90's, his splitter is already one of the best pitches in the entire Braves organization right now, and his slider is still a legitimate weapon despite lagging behind his fastball and splitter.
The Braves have already been aggressive with Waldrep as a college arm as he blasted his way all the way to Triple-A in his first season of pro ball. We are betting that one of the Braves' starters is going to have to miss a significant length of time or that the Braves will opt to go with a six-man rotation for stretches to give guys like Morton, Fried, and Sale extra days off during the season. Expect Waldrep to be firmly in the mix as an option if those scenarios come to pass and if he gets in the rotation, he probably is going to stick around.
The Braves will set the franchise record for wins in the regular season in 2024
For the past two seasons, the Braves have done something that has only been done eight times in franchise history in the modern era and that is eclipse 100 wins in a season. They successfully chased the Mets down in 2022 in route to 101 wins and last season they tied for the second most regular season wins in franchise history with 104.
Predicting that the Braves will get north of 100 wins again may not seem all that bold, but keep in mind that from 2018 through last season, a grand total of 17 teams have pulled it off across the entire league. Winning the division is hard, but winning 100+ games is significantly tougher.
However, we are going to go one step further than saying that the Braves will 100 or more games in 2024. The Braves offense is going to arguably be better on paper than last year with multiple MVP candidates on the roster, the rotation is in a good spot assuming the injury bug doesn't bite, and the bullpen is loaded. If there is any year where the Braves' franchise record for wins in a season could fall, it is next season.
Atlanta won 104 games last year despite losing Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Sean Murphy, Travis d'Arnaud, and others for significant lengths of time. The Braves record for wins in a season is 106 set back in 1998. We're betting the record falls next year especially if the pitching staff can stay healthier than it was last year.
More Braves News from House That Hank Built
manual