4 key takeaways from the Braves' late night trade for Jarred Kelenic
The Braves shocked everyone as they struck a late night trade with the Mariners.
Never underestimate Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos' ability to think outside the box and bring in high end talent to the organization. After giving everyone the hard sell that the Braves would be more than happy to start 2024 with Vaughn Grissom in left field this offseason, the Braves struck a late night shocker of a trade with the Mariners that brings Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White to the Braves in exchange for pitching prospect Cole Phillips as well as Jackson Kowar.
On the whole, this is a classic Anthopoulos move. The Braves found a high end talent in Kelenic that they liked and managed to convince Jerry DiPoto and the Mariners that a package consisting of a high ceiling, but far away pitching prospect along with some payroll relief was a worthy return. Seattle gets to now play in the deep end of free agency with some extra payroll to play with and the Braves get one of the more talented young players to come out out of the draft from the last few years.
Grading the Braves' late night trade with the Mariners for Jarred Kelenic
On the whole, this trade was a great move by the Braves. Kelenic is the headliner for good reason as he has the chance to be the Braves' left fielder of the future as he is under team control through 2028. Yes yes, the Braves still keep trying to sell Vaughn Grissom, but that is feeling more and more like Atlanta trying to boost his value so that he, too, could get moved in a trade. Atlanta doesn't take on the over $27 million in salary owed to Gonzales and White plus give up a prospect like Cole Phillips unless they were willing to commit to Kelenic in left.
Speaking of Gonzales, he could be a sneaky good pickup as well. In August last season, Gonzales had to undergo season-ending surgery on his throwing arm to address a nerve issue, but there is a real chance that he will be ready to go from the start of 2024 and he isn't a complete zero as a starter when he is right. Evan White has dealt with injuries the last few years, but was so highly thought of before that that Seattle signed him to six year extension before he made it to the majors back in 2019.
Beyond the nuts and bolts of the deal, here are some of the key takeaways from the Braves late night deal with the Mariners.
The Braves already tight payroll situation just got a lot tighter
While it was really exciting to see the Braves strike a deal on the first night of the Winter Meetings, it does come with some questions. Atlanta already had a challenging payroll situation given that they were set to be over the luxury tax threshold and probably needed to add a higher end starting pitcher. Now after the trade, the Braves just added almost $20 million to their 2024 payroll with Gonzales and White and still haven't landed the starter they need to be looking for.
The end result of all of this is that the Braves probably have to stay in the trade market to address their rotation needs. It wouldn't be all that surprising if we saw Anthopoulos make a move to shed some payroll as soon as this week and get even more aggressive in their push to trade for Dylan Cease. With the price of free agent starting pitching skyrocketing in recent years in addition to the money they just added to this year's payroll, it is harder and harder to see Atlanta going after a free agent arm like Jordan Montgomery.
Kelenic is loaded with upside, but comes with some risk
Braves fans are understandably excited about all of the potential that Jarred Kelenic brings to the table. He was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft by the Mets and after he was traded to Seattle, he quickly established himself as a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball. When he is on, he is a plus hitter with more raw power than scouts thought he would have coming out of the draft. On pure talent, he is an absolute stud.
However, Kelenic's time in the big leagues has been a tough road despite all that talent. He struggled to hit at all during the 2021 and 2022 seasons and while his 2023 line of .253/.327/.419 was an improvement, a .746 OPS isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. The Braves are clearly hoping that a change of scenery and possibly some adjustments will unlock Kelenic's potential, but he is far from a sure thing.
Atlanta may grow to regret giving up Cole Phillips
The bulk of the early chatter surrounding this trade has centered on the money that the Braves took on from Seattle, but they paid a real price on the prospect front as well. The Braves drafted Phillips in the second round of the 2022 draft despite the fact that he had to have Tommy John surgery that spring before the draft. The reason the Braves took that risk is because Phillips has a fastball that is likely to reach triple digits assuming he comes back healthy as well as a power slider that projects to be a plus pitch.
The Braves likely felt that Phillips was expendable simply because he has yet to return to the field since his injury. As good as he could be, he is still years away from helping the big league club even if he starts the 2024 season healthy given that he was a prep arm when he was drafted. However, make no mistake about it: the Braves gave up a very talented pitching prospect in this deal in Phillips and there is a real chance that Braves fans will look back on this deal and wince given how high Phillips' upside is.
The Braves "probably" are no longer players for the top free agent starters
This was hinted at in the first section, but is worth repeating. With the Braves taking on all of this salary from the Mariners in this deal, it is hard to see a world where they sign a free agent starter of note this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell are the top rotation arms left on the market and even before this deal, it was a stretch to think that the Braves would be willing to hand out a contract that those guys would take.
Now that this deal is done, the plans to add a starter are even murkier. Sure, the Braves could trade away guys like Marcell Ozuna or Raisel Iglesias to free up some payroll space and that would make signing a pitcher such as Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, or even Marcus Stroman more feasible. However, it is far more likely that Atlanta just avoid free agency altogether when it comes to getting a starter and a trade for guys like Cease or Shane Bieber becomes more and more likely.
More Braves News from House That Hank Built
manual